What Trump, Putin expect from Helsinki summit

In this file photo taken on 11 November, 2017 US president Donald Trump chats with Russia’s president Vladimir Putin as they attend the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting, part of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ summit in the central Vietnamese city of Danang. Photo: AFP
In this file photo taken on 11 November, 2017 US president Donald Trump chats with Russia’s president Vladimir Putin as they attend the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting, part of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ summit in the central Vietnamese city of Danang. Photo: AFP

Russian president Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump will meet in Finland on Monday for their first one-on-one summit.

With relations between their two countries at lows not seen since the Cold War, the pair will have their work cut out to bring anything positive out of the meeting.
What are Moscow and Washington actually hoping to get from the talks?
The view from Moscow
The fact that the meeting is happening at all is already a win for the Kremlin, which has long sought a summit but has been pushed back by Washington, analyst Andrei Baklitsky said.
The conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, as well as alleged meddling in the US election and Western sanctions are bones of contention between the countries. Baklitsky said he expected few “groundbreaking decisions” from the summit.
A joint declaration was as much as anyone could hope for, he added.
Political analyst Alexei Malashenko suggested that for Putin, the meeting was “an informal recognition of Russia as a great power”.
Putin might try to convince Trump to take a “more flexible” position on war-ravaged Syria in the hope that Washington would be less active in the country, Malashenko said.
Any compromise on that region would be seen as a victory for Moscow, he added.
The US will want to convince Moscow that Iranian forces should leave Syria, but Putin is “probably not ready” to jeopardise relations with Tehran over the issue, he said.
In any case the topic is easier for the two leaders to discuss than the ongoing conflict in the east of ex-Soviet Ukraine, which is a much more sensitive issue for Russia.
In terms of election meddling, Baklitsky said Russia would deny-as it long has-interfering in the 2016 US presidential vote that brought Trump to power.
But Moscow might be willing to issue a joint statement pledging not to carry out any such activity in the future.
The view from Washington
US analysts suggested the value for Trump was in putting himself at the centre of US foreign policy.
“He wants to be perceived as the one who makes these decisions, that he makes them unilaterally, that he is the crucial dealmaker,” said William Pomeranz, deputy director of the Wilson Centre’s Kennan Institute.
“It’s the perception that is the most important for Trump rather than what he actually receives,” he told AFP.
Pomeranz anticipated a joint statement coming out of the meeting.
Alina Polyakova, a foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, agreed that Trump would use the summit as an opportunity to boost his domestic standing.
“What will Trump be able to sell as a win with Russia? Basically that ‘Obama has screwed up this relationship and I’ve made it right’,” she said.
“’Russia is not a threat to us because I’ve personally made this connection with Putin and we see eye-to-eye.’”
But William Courtney, an adjunct senior fellow at the non-partisan Rand Corporation in Washington, said Trump might try to secure some minor deliverable agreements.
He cited as examples the possible re-opening of the US consulate in Saint Petersburg and the Russian one in San Francisco.
It was less likely that Trump might try to strike some sort of grand bargain with Russia, such as recognition of Russian-annexed Crimea in return for Moscow using its influence to get Iranian militias out of Syria, Courtney said.
Olga Oliker, senior adviser and director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said there were three mutually beneficial topics the two leaders could discuss.
These would be the extension of the new START arms reduction treaty, the protection of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and the establishment of better military-to-military communications on a range of topics.
Here is a summary of the sticking points between the two powers:
Russian ‘meddling’
Since the start of Trump’s presidency, relations have been tainted by allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 US election and suspicions that the billionaire’s campaign team colluded with the Kremlin.
Russia has denied any interference. US secretary of state Mike Pompeo has insisted that Trump at his meeting with Putin “will make clear that meddling in our elections is completely unacceptable.”
Ahead of the summit, 12 Russian military intelligence agents were indicted for hacking Democrats during the election.
War in Ukraine
Along with its Western allies, the US accuses Moscow of providing military support to pro-Russian separatists fighting government forces in eastern Ukraine. Russia denies this.
Washington long resisted providing lethal weapons to Ukraine, fearing this could exacerbate the conflict, but in March the US approved a deal to sell anti-tank missiles to Kiev, angering Russia.
Trump has made evasive comments on whether Washington might recognise Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.
Syria quagmire
Air strikes on Syria by the US and its allies in April 2017 and April 2018 in response to alleged chemical attacks by President Bashar al-Assad’s forces have infuriated Russia.
In February, Moscow said a number of Russian civilians were killed by US-led coalition bombing. These were reportedly mercenaries fighting alongside pro-regime forces.
Disarmament feuds
The US and Russia have accused each other of breaking international agreements over disarmament.
In March, Putin boasted Russia has developed new “invincible” weapons including hypersonic missiles and unmanned submarines.
The Pentagon in February called for a revamp of the US nuclear arsenal and development of new low-yield atomic weapons.
Moscow condemned the new US nuclear policy as “bellicose” and “anti-Russian.”
Tensions over NATO
Moscow views NATO’s moves to beef up its eastern defences as aggressive steps aimed at encircling Russia.
Russia is also concerned at NATO plans launched in 2010 for a European missile shield that is due to be completed in 2020 with installations in Romania and Poland.
Trump has lashed out at other NATO allies, urging them to spend more on defence.
Iran nuclear deal
Trump’s unilateral decision to pull out of the Iranian nuclear deal signed in 2015 after lengthy negotiations and to reimpose sanctions on Iran left both Russia and the West flabbergasted.
Russia, which has close ties both with Syria and Iran, has said European countries must “jointly defend their legal interests” in the deal.
North Korea
Russia reacted positively to a June 12 meeting between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. They signed a joint declaration but did not achieve any concrete breakthroughs on Pyongyang’s nuclear activities.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov afterwards told state news agency RIA Novosti: “We very much hope that he (Trump) starts the process of de-escalating tensions.”
Spy poisoning
The United States this year joined in a wave of expulsions of Russian diplomats from various countries over the poisoning of a Russian ex-spy in Britain, which London blamed on Moscow.
Trade war
Russia in early July raised import duties on some US imported goods in response to steep tariffs announced by the US on its steel and aluminium, part of a global trade war.