IMF, in its latest economic outlook, assessed progress of countries in vaccination. According to the update, 40 per cent of population of the advanced economies like United States, Germany, France, Japan, United Kingdom, Canada and others have already taken second dose of Covid vaccine.
On the other hand, emerging markets and developing economies have been able to vaccinate only 11 per cent of their population while vaccination in low-income developing countries has covered only one per cent of their population.
IMF finds that timely rollout of vaccines now allows advanced economies for faster normalisation of activity. On the other hand, recovery from the pandemic has been set back in countries like India and some others experiencing new waves because of slow-pace in vaccination.
Vaccine access is the principal fault line along which the global recovery splits into two blocs: those that can look forward to further normalisation of activity later this year (almost all advanced economies) and those that will still contend with prospects of resurgent infections and rising Covid death tolls, the IMF report says.
IMF has projected growth of the global economy at 6 per cent in 2021. It says that fault line in the global economic recovery among the advanced economies, emerging markets and low-income economies has been widening because of access to vaccines.
Projection for economic recovery in the developing and low-income countries was downgraded as they have failed to bring larger population under vaccination.
The global economy is projected to grow 4.9 per cent in 2022. Although the 2021 forecast is unchanged from April, there are offsetting revisions across advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies reflecting differences in pandemic developments and policy shifts, the IMF report says.
According to IMF, economic recovery is uncertain until the world can get rid of the Covid-19 pandemic.
IMF has projected that United States and United Kingdom would see 7 per cent growth of their gross national production (GDP) in 2021. Projection on GDP growth would be 4.6 per cent for Euro Area, 2.8 per cent for Japan, 8.1 per cent for China and 9.5 for India.
Forecast on GDP growth in all advanced economies (excluding China) has been revised up.
IMF’s latest economic outlook has been projected GDP growth of Bangladesh. But its country-wise database forecasts 5 per cent GDP growth in Bangladesh in 2021.
*This report appeared in online edition of Prothom Alo, has been rewritten in English by Sadiqur Rahman.