The technical expert committee had predicted that the transmission of coronavirus could increase rapidly in four districts of the country. These districts are Cumilla, Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar and Rangpur. The committee had advised that districts with less than 100 coronavirus cases also be kept under close observation. Almost a month after these predictions, the virus transmission spread extensively in these four districts. The spread of the virus could not be controlled in the 31 districts where there had been comparatively less cases.
These projections had been made by the four-member technical expert committee. They have been assisting the public health advisory committee of the Directorate of Health Services (DGHS) in reviewing the pandemic situation. DGHS has been using their projections since April.
The eight-member public health advisory committee on 31 May had informed the health directorate about the state of the virus transmission in various districts. Public health experts and researchers feel that DGHS did not give due importance to the projections. No directives were given to adopt special measures in the concerned districts. Since 31 May, the infections in Cox’s Bazar went up by 227 percent, in Chattogram by 212 percent and in Rangpur by 100 percent. The number of coronavirus cases in Cumilla went up by 258 percent.
Member of the public health advisory committee, Abu Jamil Faisal, speaking to Prothom Alo, said, “Analysing the data of the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), we saw that there was fear of the virus spreading extensively in four districts. We stressed the need for detection of the virus cases in these four districts, isolation of the confirmed cases and also contact testing.”
Director general of DGHS Abul Kalam Azad told Prothom Alo, “The number of cases have increased all over. Management and other measures have been taken up. An improvement in management will be visible this week.”
Situation in four districts
The first coronavirus case in the country was detected on 8 March. By 31 May there were 47,153 confirmed cases in the country. On 26 June this figure stood at 130,474. That means there was a 177 percent increase in patients over the month of June.
The first coronavirus case in Cumilla was detected on 9 April. In the 53 days between then and 31 May, the number of cases in the district increased to 846. Then in the first 26 days of June, the number reached 2,148, that is, a 258 percent increase.
On Saturday there were 1,778 samples for testing in the district. There is only one laboratory in the district that does these tests. Four wards of Cumilla town have been placed under lockdown from 20 June till 3 July. Speaking to Prothom Alo, the district civil surgeon Md Nayatuzzaman said that they were trying to install another PCR machine to accelerate tests. No contact testing was being carried out.
DGHS has not issued any directive for measures to be stepped up in these districts. Cox’s Bazar district civil surgeon Mahbubur Rahman said, “We have not been given any directives for any additional measures. However, we have taken more initiatives than other districts to contain the spread of the virus.”
The first patient in Cox’s Bazar district was detected on 24 March. By 31 May the number of patients there was 734. On 26 June the number of patents stood at 2,401, a 227 percent increase.
The civil surgeon said that Cox’s Bazar, Teknaf pourashava and three unions of Ukhia had been declared red zones and they had begun contact tracing in these areas with the help of over 100 volunteers. He said that Cox’s Bazar was at higher risk because of the Rohingya refugees. So far five Rohingyas had died of coronavirus and 48 were infected. And other 32 were under treatment at isolation centres in the camp.
The first coronavirus case in Chattogram district was detected on 3 April. By 31 May the number of cases there was 2,441. Since then till date, the number of patients increased by 212 percent.
In order to keep the spread of the virus under control, 10 of Chattogram city’s 41 wards were declared red zones. One is under lockdown presently. No special measures are being taken in the rest of the city or the district. No contact testing is being carried out. Chattogram city corporation mayor AZM Nasir Uddin told Prothom Alo that the matter of lives and livelihood is being taken into cognizance in deciding on the lockdown.
In Rangpur district, the first coronavirus case was detected on 8 April. Till 31 May there were 427 coronavirus patients there, Now there are 853, that is, a 100 percent increase.
Rangpur district civil surgeon Hirambar Kumar Roy, speaking to Prothom Alo, said, “Contact testing has been carried out from almost the very beginning in the city and the upazilas. I feel that this has helped keep the virus transmission in control.”
Public health expert Mushtaq Ahmed said if the infection is to be prevented, then suspected cases must be detected, the virus cases must be identified, the identified patients must be isolated, contact testing must be carried out. These basic measures were not carried out and so the virus has spread.
He said there are one or two patients scattered here and there in the town and so zoning is very difficult. We are looking into alternatives, he said.
Virus transmission not under control
Speaking to Prothom Alo, member of the technical expert committee and associate professor at Dhaka University’s health economics department, Shafiun Shimul, said, “We were seeing more infections in some districts and less in some. We had mentioned that special steps be taken in the case of districts with less cases.”
Both Shafiun Shimul and Abu Jamil Faisal said that isolation and contact testing would have been easy in the districts with less cases. If this would have been possible, then the spread of the virus could have been kept in check. But this was not done.
According to IEDCR’s 31 May records, there were less than 100 confirmed cases in each of 31 districts. Now there are less than 100 cases each only in four districts – Lalmonirhat, Magura, Meherpur and Chapainawabganj.
The first coronavirus virus case in Khulna was detected on 13 April. Till 31 May there were only 76 patients in the district. Now the number of coronavirus cases there stands at 1,551. Over the past 26 days the number of patients increased to 1,940. No one knows how long this trend will continue.
Khulna district civil surgeon Sujat Ahmed told Prothom Alo, the situation deteriorated since Eid. The people are not staying at home, not wearing masks and not following the rules of hygiene. That is why the spread of the virus cannot be kept under control. He said, “Two wards and one union have been locked down. Let’s see what happens.”
The technical expert team had said that districts with less than 100 patients each must be kept under close surveillance. They also had said that contact testing should be carried out in these districts. None of this was done. They had said that there should have been caution about careless coming and going from the villages and opening offices and shops. The situation in Bangladesh is risky. If social distancing and hygiene is not maintained, Bangladesh could become a coronavirus hotspot.
Public health expert Mushtaq Ahmed told Prothom Alo, the government is giving more attention to the treatment of patients than to bringing the transmission of the virus under control. If the infection is to be prevented, then suspected cases must be detected, the virus cases must be identified, the identified patients must be isolated, contact testing must be carried out. These public health measures must be followed. These basic measures were not carried out and so the virus has spread.
Correspondents of Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Cumilla, Rangpur and Khulna helped in compiling this report.