Four months into the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in the country, the transmission of the virus is still on an upward curve. The number of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and the ratio of tests and confirmed cases, is on a steady rise. There is no sign of the pandemic receding any time soon.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has put forward certain indicators to assess whether the virus has come under control in any country. Bangladesh does not have adequate data for such indicators and so it is hard to get a realistic assessment of the situation in the country. However, assessing whatever data is available, experts feel that the virus transmission is still out of control.
How can it be ascertained if the spread of coronavirus is under control in any country? According to WHO, the effective reproduction number is an important parameter in this regard, indicating the number of cases from the initial transmission to the next. If this number is below 1 for at least two weeks, then it can be said that the virus transmission is in control or in recession.
Bangladesh has no official research or data in this regard. However, according to the news agency AFP, the Imperial College of London and University of Sussex report says that till 14 June the virus’ effective reproduction number in Bangladesh was above 1. It was 1.17 which indicates an outbreak of the infection.
Outside of that, WHO has other indicators which can assess whether the infection is in control. On 12 May, WHO stated that the virus could be said to be in control if the number of confirmed and suspected cases fell by 50 percent three weeks after the peak; if less than 5 percent of the samples tested in two weeks were positive; if at least 80 percent of the infections were in specific clusters; if deaths and suspected deaths from similar symptoms decreased for three weeks; if the admission of patients and number of ICU patients decreased in a span of two weeks; and if deaths due to pneumonia decreased.
WHO went on to day that all countries may not have the accurate data in this regard. Bangladesh does not have all the data. It has data regarding three indicators which indicate that virus transmission is still on an upward curve, detection rates are also high, death and suspicious deaths are also on a rise.
Experts are still not sure whether the transmission has peaked in Bangladesh. Chinese experts, during a recent visit to Bangladesh, said in a video conference on Sunday that it is difficult to ascertain whether the spread of the virus has peaked in Bangladesh or not. They said it was necessary to tackle the virus in a scientific and planned manner, adopting all necessary measures including lockdown.
In Bangladesh, the number of positive cases is high in proportion to the sample testing and this rate is on an increase. And the number of tests is also not as high as recommended by WHO. It is just a bit higher than half. Even now, it is mostly suspected persons who are being tested. People are not being tested en masse and so it is hard to ascertain the actual spread of the virus in the country.
Even if the tests are less than required, the number of cases detected is high. Over the past two weeks, the rate of detection was around 22 percent. In the first month of the outbreak this was 4.32 percent, in the second week 11.58 percent, and in the third week 18.37 percent.
Bangladesh once again ranked at 10 among 215 countries and regions with the highest number of new cases over the past week. Just a day before it ranked at 11. With the new cases detected over 24 hours, it now ranks at 9.
The number of deaths due to coronavirus or similar symptoms has not reduced as yet. For over two weeks this death rate has been, on average, over 40 persons per day. Before 2 June this had been below 30.
The number of deaths of persons with coronavirus symptoms is also on a rise. The Bangladesh Peace Observatory project of Dhaka University’s Centre for Genocide Studies, is recording such suspicious deaths. On 19 June they said that the number of deaths due to coronavirus-like symptoms has been on an increased for three weeks. Over the last one week, 179 such deaths took place, the highest for one week.
The prime minister’s personal physician ABM Abdullah told Prothom Alo, as there are less tests being conducted, it is not possible to ascertain the actual spread of the disease. However, it does not seem that it is fully in control as yet. It will take another week or so to determine the situation. If a strong drive is taken now and if everyone, on an individual level, is cautious, the transmission curve will turn downwards after a few days.
Bangladesh again among the top 10 countries with highest COVID-19 cases
Over the past 24 hours (8:00 am Tuesday to 8:00 pm Wednesday), another 3,462 new coronavirus cases were recorded in Bangladesh, bringing the total up to 122,660. And 37 died of the virus in these 24 hours. Additional director of the health directorate, Nasima Sultana, presented this update on Wednesday.
According to WHO, Bangladesh once again ranked at 10 among 215 countries and regions with the highest number of new cases over the past week. Just a day before it ranked at 11. With the new cases detected over 24 hours, it now ranks at 9.
Adviser of the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), Mushtaq Hossain, speaking to Prothom Alo, said the government has the effort and the initiative to tackle the transmission of the virus, but the spread of the infection continues to rise. Only when the curve flattens and turns downwards, can it be said that the transmission of the virus is in control.