Plan to drive out Rohingyas taken two and a half years ago

Myanmar’s military saw the country’s political transition from martial law to democracy as an opportune moment to uproot ethnic minority Rohingya Muslims from Rakhine, diplomats and strategic analysis conclude.

As steps were taken to eliminate Rohingyas from their Myanmar homeland, just within four months of Aung San Suu Kyi’s takeover as state councillor, the military began its repression of the Rohingyas in Rakhine.

Diplomats and analysts in Dhaka also say the international community failed to understand the Myanmar plan in 2016. Then from 25 August 2017, the armed forces began carrying out genocide in full swing.

On 9 October 2016, there was an alleged attack by unknown assailants on the police camps along the Rakhine state border. Myanmar said that at least nine policemen were killed in the sabotage and arms and ammunition were looted. In response to the incident, the Myanmar army surrounded the Rohingya populated villages and went on a spree of killing, rape, arson and looting. That year, since October onwards, at least 87,000 Rohingya fled for their lives into neighbouring Bangladesh.

Diplomatic and military analysts told Prothom Alo that the military in Myanmar considered the time of transition to democracy after the November 2015 elections there as conducive to driving out the Rohingyas.

The international community failed to recognise this plot.

The 2016 phase of Rohingya eviction was seen by the international community, including the United Nations, simply as a humanitarian crisis but they avoided seeing this as a move to snatch away the political rights of the minority Muslims in Myanmar.

International relations professor of Dhaka University, CR Abrar, said, in retrospect it is obvious that Myanmar was well prepared in advance to drive out the Rohingyas.

Bangladesh always tried to keep confidence in Myanmar and so failed to see this move, he added.

Certain Bangladeshi diplomats who had served in Myanmar told Prothom Alo that despite geographical proximity, Myanmar always remained a distant neighbour of Bangladesh. Bangladesh always maintained a friendly attitude towards Myanmar but to no avail.

Prime minister Sheikh Hasina congratulated Aung San Suu Kyi over telephone when the latter became state councillor in 2016. She wrote to her and invited her to visit Bangladesh.

The prime minister’s letter spoke of paying due importance to the neighbor, willingness to assist in resolving the Rohingya problem, and strengthening ties between the two countries through mutual understanding.

It took three months for Suu Kyi to reply, officials informed said.

Senior diplomats of Bangladesh who served in Myanmar told Prothom Alo that though Suu Kyi came to power, there was no change in the administration’s views about the Rohingyas.

The neighbouring country took no steps to consolidate ties with Bangladesh either, the diplomats observed.

Myanmar’s civil leadership there understandably feels it is enough to have good ties with India and China. And in these circumstances, the military went ahead with its drive against the Rohingyas.

The Rohingyas who are now sheltered in Bangladesh are not too hopeful of returning to their homes in Rakhine.

Ahmed Hossain, a resident of an unregistered Rohingya camp in Leda, Teknaf, told Prothom Alo that they want to spend the last years of their lives in their own country, but it does not seem as if their wish will be fulfilled.

“If the authorities had wanted to take them back, they wouldn’t have driven out thousands of Rohingyas in three phases,” he pointed out.

Dhaka’s diplomats feel that Myanmar now wants to complicate matters further by claiming ownership of St Martin’s island.

An international arbitration in 2012 declared St Martin’s to be part of Bangladesh, but even then Myanmar went ahead to depict the island as part of its territory on the map. It only changed this after Bangladesh issued a protest.

Foreign ministry officials feel that pressure has increased on Myanmar after the UN report clearly spoke about the genocide against Rohingyas, particularly in 2016 and 2017. St Martin’s is being used to divert attention from the Rohingya issue.

Diplomats say the international community is still paying more attention to the humanitarian aspect of the matter, rather than the political aspect.

And Bangladesh feels that the bilateral agreement with Myanmar will be instrumental in the return of the Rohingyas. But the St Martin’s issue shows that there is no reason to believe that discussions will lead to the repatriation of the Rohingyas.

Concerning the role of Myanmar, former ambassador M Humayun Kabir told Prothom Alo on Monday that though Bangladesh has always tried to maintain good relations with Myanmar, the Southeast Asian neighbour has not changed its stance. Myanmar has long been planning to change the demographic balance in the Rohingya-populated Rakhine state, he said.

After the 2015 election, the Myanmar army realised that it was time to take a decision, the former diplomat mention ed. “And that is what they have been carrying out in phases in 2016 and 2017.”

* This report appeared in Prothom Alo print edition and has been rewritten in English by Ayesha Kabir