RDC survey financed by Salman F Rahman’s institutions

Research and Development Centre presented the survey findings at a hotel in Dhaka on Wednesday. Photo: Collected
Research and Development Centre presented the survey findings at a hotel in Dhaka on Wednesday. Photo: Collected

Ruling Bangladesh Awami League's mahajote (grand alliance) will win 248 seats while the Jatiya Oikya Front (JOF) will bag 49 seats in the upcoming 11th parliamentary elections billed for 30 December, said a survey of the Research and Development Centre (RDC).

The survey report was revealed at a hotel in the capital on 26 December.

RDC's survey was financed by private satellite television channel Independent Television and English newspaper The Independent, both owned by businessman and AL candidate for Dhaka-1 constituency Salman F Rahman, also the privatisation affairs advisor to the prime minister Sheikh Hasina.

Impact PR, the institution that organised the media conference, confirmed the sources of funds to Prothom Alo on Thursday.

The survey findings showed that the mahajote was supported by 60 per cent of the voters and the BNP and JOF by 22 per cent.

Four per cent voted for the Jatiya Party while about 10 per cent voters were undecided, 3 per cent refused to answer, and less than 1 per cent did not intend to vote, the survey report said.

RDC claimed the field work for this survey was carried out over the period between 9 and 16 December this year with a sample size of 2,249 from 51 constituencies.

BSS adds: This finding compares with the 2008 parliamentary election where the mahajote received 57 per cent of the votes, the BNP-led grand alliance 37 per cent while others 6 per cent.

Salman F Rahman. File Photo
Salman F Rahman. File Photo



The survey findings revealed that voting intentions are the same for men and women and by age group. The youngest age group (age 18-29) is a large section of voters that will be participating in a parliamentary election for the first time.

There is no difference in voting preferences of the young and older voters. Contrary to frequent views expressed, there is no evidence in any change of the political preferences of the young, according to BSS.

Support for the mohajote is relatively weaker in small towns than in large cities and rural areas. Support for the JOF is relatively stronger in the rural areas and small towns than the big cities. Hindu voters overwhelmingly support the mahajote.

This result is reached using a model based on the past voting records for every constituency and the total nation-wide vote as forecast from the national survey.

The analysis takes into account changes in constituency boundaries over the past 27 years. An earlier version correctly predicted the outcome of the 2001 and 2008 elections.

When asked, 98 per cent of the voters said that they intend to participate in the election. The sample for the survey was drawn using the 2011 population census to provide information on population of upazilas. Upazilas were randomly selected with probabilities determined from the census data.

Once the upazilas were selected, a number of villages and urban localities were selected using the census data. For each village or urban locality, respondents were selected from the voter list for that location, the RDC claimed.