'Provide stimulus package to 10m poor people'
Hossain Zillur Rahman is an educationist, economist and chairperson of BRAC. He is a former adviser to the caretaker government and founder of Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC).
Q: Many think lockdown is for developed countries and is not effective for developing countries like Bangladesh. How do you view this?
Hossain Zillur Rahman: Both health and economic crises have to be tackled simultaneously. We have to accept an economic shutdown for a month. This is not a question of rich and poor countries. The main target is to adopt a specific lockdown strategy by identifying hotspots of coronavirus.
Despite lockdown, emergency services will continue. But a definition needs to be fixed.
There must be a rule to maintain social distancing while distributing relief materials. Tests for coronavirus are being expanded and the number of patients increasing. The trend may remain high throughout this month.
Q: Wuhan was locked down for two months and it yielded a result. How will hidden hotspots be discovered?
Hossain Zillur Rahman: We see shortcomings in our lockdown. We have to strengthen steps to identify hotspots. At this moment, Narayanganj is the most risky place and lockdown has to be ensured strictly there as well as in Dhaka. The areas which have a limited number of confirmed cases, have to be isolated. As the use of kits is limited, so proxy indicators have to be applied. For example, we have to collect information as to where the suspected patients surge. That is how we have to identify hotspots.
Relief materials have to be distributed maintaining social distancing. Inter-district movement has to be restricted strictly. But supply of daily essentials has to be ensured.
Q: What problems exist in treating coronavirus patients?
Hossain Zillur: The mental courage of our health workers collapsed in the beginning. They had no personal protection equipment (PPE), but they were blamed. The situation improved later. April is very critical for us. We will realise the deepening of the crisis in the days to come.
Lack of preparation is evident. It is very important to equip health workers, law enforcers and newsmen with PPE. Even the language we use with them is a matter of importance. Many MBBS physicians are sitting idle. An emergency plan is needed to organise them. Relief activities have to be ensured and pilferage must be stopped.
Q: How about sending money through mobile phone transfer to avoid corruption and wastage?
Hossain Zillur: Bangladesh is in strong position in mobile banking. The strategy should not be unilateral. If food is not available, money is useless. According to different studies, those who want to embezzle relief, will find ways to do so even there.
The recipients will receive money from distant places and will have the freedom to spend. I talked to donors on Thursday. Social safety net programmes were not available in the cities. So the existing database may not be effective. We have to ensure that no one is deprived of relief.
Everybody should monitor the selection of beneficiaries and relief distribution. We have to pay attention to those who have become poor recently. Research organisations PPRC and BIGD are carrying out a study by phone across the country. The main purpose is to assess the poverty in cities. We hope to publish results on 16 April. With crisis comes opportunity. Now we can concentrate on addressing poverty in cities.
Q: The budget month June is nearing. How far should the budget be different?
Hossain Zillur: The government has declared a stimulus package of Tk 50 billion for the garment sector and later Tk 727.50 billion. This stimulus should not be limited to some formal sectors. Poor people and small and medium entrepreneurs from informal sectors are also hit hard by the lockdown in April. They need a package of equal amount till the budget is announced. At this moment, they must offer another package or fix priorities within the existing package.
This stimulus package will be required in May and June to activate SME. An immediate review of line items of the budget is necessary. Identify the areas for cutting back. Baishaki allowance can be cancelled. The most urgent thing is to declare a package for 10 million poor people. Besides declaration of the package, sources have to be disclosed.
Q: If we cannot resume earning 60-70 billion dollars from the garments sector and the remittance falls, then unemployment will be devastating.
Hossain Zillur: We have to take this into cognizance and plan accordingly. I hope coronavirus will help bring changes to our long term plans. The tendency to determine development only through GDP has already been challenged.
As I said, we can no longer depend on those two ‘drivers’ of growth. We have to look out for new drivers. A new development concept will be needed, taking people into consideration.
The policymakers need to bring changes in their thinking pattern in this regard.
Q: What would be the direct impact of Tk 720 billion on several crore poor people? Have you noticed the reaction of ten per cent people who possess 90 per cent of the country’s assets?
Hossain Zillur: I specifically see the increase of poverty for a short period. When this crisis is over, we have to make new plans after September. Isn't it true that the incentive package is for a selective quarter? We have to immediately arrange food for 4 million people. Voiceless people like ‘bede’ (river people) communities and tea workers have to be brought under this programme. If the marginal people are included, the number of people will cross 10 million.
The rich should be socially responsible. Their response is unfortunate. Some rich people are distributing silently while others are contributing little but advertising much.
Q: How long this crisis may prolong?
Hossain Zillur: There are various crises ahead. Two countries in the Middle East show unfriendly attitudes towards Bangladeshi migrants.
There is no specific answer to it. We may not realise now as to how many problems we will face in future. We have to face the challenges jointly.
Thank you
Hossain Zillur: Thanks.
*This interview, originally published in Prothom Alo print edition, has been written in English by Rabiul Islam.