Khaleda’s release, why, when, how?

The decision to release Khaleda Zia from prison has released with it a volley of speculations.

Sentenced to seven years imprisonment on corruption charges, the chairperson of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Khaleda Zia, has been behind bars for two years now, since February 2018. Initially isolated in the abandoned jail in the old part of the city and later kept at Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University (BSMMU), Khaleda Zia’s incarceration had begun to draw empathy even from her foes. She was, after all, not just a popular leader of the major opposition party in the country. She has been prime minister of Bangladesh twice and also widow of former president Ziaur Rahman, the founder of BNP. She was 74, ailing, had lost one son, while the other was in exile. She cut a lonely figure indeed. Her party may have failed to drum up a movement stringent enough for her release, but public sympathy towards her was growing. Even elements with the ruling Awami League were developing an ambivalence in their attitude towards her imprisonment. It was, after all, becoming in thorn in the flesh for the government’s cumbersome incumbency.

The announcement that Khaleda Zia is to be released, albeit for six months, has been met with a sense of relief, tempered with trepidation. When will she be released, how will she be released and most important of all, why will she be released? Time will answer the ‘when’ and ‘how’ questions, so it is the ‘why’ that requires analysis.

COVID-19, of course, first jumps to the mind. In this time of global and national crisis, releasing Khaleda Zia seems the only humanitarian thing to do so. The pandemic has thrown all equations to the winds as it is, and circumstances demanded a degree of magnanimity. And indeed, the decision has been hailed by Khaleda Zia’s family and members of her party. The party’s appreciation is not without criticism, but it is appreciation nevertheless.

However, one can’t help but wonder about the humanitarian aspect of the decision. Just how magnanimous has prime minister Sheikh Hasina been in deciding to free her arch rival? There is certainly no love lost between the two and Hasina has never curbed her acerbic tirade against Khaleda. If it is humanitarian grounds upon which Khaleda is being released, why wasn’t this displayed before? She has long been ailing and asking for better medical treatment abroad. Her health issues are many, exacerbated by her age and confinement. But the decision to release her is conditional, she cannot go abroad. So in these six months, even when and if the coronavirus crisis is over, she will not be able to avail the medical treatment she ostensibly needs.

Back to the COVID-19 issue. The hospital where Khaleda is presently interned, BSMMU, has been under strict security. With a former prime minister and leader of the major political opposition in its confines, the hospital cannot afford a breach of security and nor can the government. And so there can be no coronavirus treatment at the hospital, and anyone showing even slight signs of the infection cannot be treated there. They even turn away patients with a common cold. If by any chance Khaleda Zia is infected in the hospital, the onus will be upon the government and the hospital authorities for negligence.

But not to be so dubious of the motives, the hospital issue makes sense. Just for a single VIP patient, the entire massive premises of the hospital, which has some of the best physicians in the country, is out of bounds for corona treatment at a time when the country needs it the most. That is hardly justified. So by removing Khaleda from hospital, perhaps the authorities are facilitating the public. That may well be a point to ponder.

Prime minister Sheikh Hasina is no doubt an astute politician and her decision to release Khaleda Zia for six months from jail is certainly a mark of her political expediency. At a time when her government has been facing all sorts of criticism for corruption, mishandling the COVID-19 crisis and the general baggage that comes with an incumbency that has stretched out over a decade, this gesture is being met with appreciation. Politically speaking, this is a big plus point in Hasina’s favour and she is not one to miss such mileage.

The skeptics have another theory up their sleeves – diversion tactics. Only news as sensational as Khaleda Zia’s release could divert attention away from the national coronavirus-related crisis, the mismanagement and glitches in the system. Even the most developed countries have mishandled the crisis, but the people of Bangladesh will naturally look to their own government. They are scared, anxious and want answers. The government is no doubt taking measures, but it is not easy. Each new case and each death brings a fresh wave of concern and criticism. So if the government can do what it needs to do about the crisis while public attention is trained onto Khaleda Zia’s release, they can do their manoeuvering with the needed elbow space.

Meantime, though the exact time and date of Khaleda’s release remains unknown, there is the fear that her supporters may decide to crowd at the gates of the hospital, garland her and greet her with the expected gusto. At her house too, the leaders and activists may not restrain themselves in their enthusiastic greeting of their long-imprisoned leader. That will put her and all of them at risk. Coronovirus is a reality which the public hasn’t faced up to with the care and caution that is needed. BNP and Khaleda Zia’s family, and the government, must take stringent measures in this regard.

Another clever point in timing is that given the COVID-19 scare, there can neither be any massive rallies, ‘victory’ programmes or fiery demonstrations. All quiet will have to prevail on the political front. Khaleda’s release will see no bouquets for BNP and no brickbats for the government.

Meanwhile, the wait is on. When will she be released? How will she receive treatment? And importantly, will the six-month release be extended or, once the COVID-crisis is over, will it be back behind bars for the begum?

Ayesha Kabir is a journalist at Prothom Alo. She can be reached at [email protected]