Coping with the election results

With the complete result of the 2018 general elections yet to come, the initial results that started pouring in since very early in the morning on Thursday indicated the trend of victories and defeats. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf ( PTI) of the cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan is clearly in the lead in winning National Assembly seats followed by Muslim League (N ) with PPP falling in third position (out of total 272 seats PTI is leading in 119, PML(N) in 61 and PPP in 38).

PML(N) is ahead of PTI in provincial assembly of Punjab by 4/5 seats but PTI has expressed its intention to form provincial government in this key province with the help of independent members. PTI has made a clean sweep in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa where it doesn’t need the support of any other political party in forming provincial government.

In provincial assembly of Sindh, Pakistan People’s Party has won clear majority and is expected to comfortably form the provincial government. In Balochistan the recently formed Balochistan Awami Party ( BAP) largely regarded to be a protege of the security establishment has emerged as the single largest parliamentary party followed by Balochistan Nationalist Party ( BNP) led by Sardar Akhtar Mengal and Mutaheda Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), a conglomerate of religious parties.

Political observers are expecting the formation of a coalition government in the militancy-hit province as no single party is able to form government on its own.

Between Wednesday evening and Thursday early hours, many political parties raised questions about fairness of the elections after failure of the presiding officers in many parts of the country to officially hand over results to the candidates hours after the completion of the vote count. They also accused the officials conducting elections of ousting the polling agents and locking the doors of offices for counting the votes.

PML (N) president Shahbaz Sharif, in a late night press conference, rejected the election results alleging large scale rigging even on the polling day. PPP leaders also expressed grave concerns about the neutrality of the election commission when a number of its polling agents were not allowed to be present during final counting of votes.

Moulana Fazal-u-Rehman, president of MMA, rejected what he called the rigged elections. Moulana declared to call an All Parties Conference on rigging of elections very soon. Mutaheda Qaumi Movement (MQM) of the Urdu speaking community from urban areas of Sindh province also rejected the election results.

PML (n) was alone in protesting against the alleged pre-polls rigging but it is joined by a number of major parties on the issue of rigging on the polling day. Future political stability in Pakistan will depend on the type of attitude that the opposition political parties adopt towards results of general election 2018. If they decide to boycott the newly elected assemblies and go for agitation, situation could deteriorate.

It’s not just the people of Pakistan who will be keenly watching the unfolding political situation in the country. Many of the neighbouring countries will be also interested in post-election political developments in Pakistan. China with its around 50 billion dollars investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is concerned about political stability in Pakistan for obvious reasons.

One major political difference between Nawaz Sharif and leadership of the army has been over policy towards the eastern neighbour India. Nawaz Sharif wanted to normalise Pakistan’s relationship with India. He also wanted to start economic relations with India, something vehemently opposed by the generals. Similarly Nawaz Sharif didn’t favour continued support to the Afghan Taliban. He wanted to have a complete shift from the geo-strategic stand of the Cold War era to the geo-economic stand of the 21st century. This line of thinking again ran counter to the dominant trend in the army.

Pakistan’s Afghan policy has a vital role in defining the country’s relations with the US and other western countries. The impression in Islamabad so far is that Imran Khan’s federal government will have no hesitation in following a foreign policy shaped by the general headquarter of the army. Imran Khan’s loud slogan of change isn’t expected to touch the status quo in Pakistani foreign policy.