Silent changes in politics

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It is either contesting in the election or facing political repression. Faced with these alternatives, opposition party BNP and its alliance Jatiya Oikya Front have opted to enter the election fray. During dialogues, the government assured that arrests and cases would be stopped and the democratic right to hold rallies and public meetings would be upheld. However, when their public rallies in Dhaka and Rajshahi faced all sorts of obstacles, Oikya Front realised that the assurances were empty. Only when 30 December arrives will it be possible to assess how much can actually be achieved in the election without a level playing field.

No one really expects that the election results will usher in any qualitative change in governance. The politicians make all sorts of pledges, and forget them in an instant. The Awami League-led mahajote or grand alliance had pledged good governance as opposed to the misrule of the BNP-Jamaat government. They pledged to end crossfire and ensure independence of the judiciary. But there seems to be no discussion about how far these pledges have been implemented, about the irregularities to be remedied in the next five years. At least that’s how it seems to be. Public discussions are focused on the nomination race of the two major parties, BNP and AL, which candidate is more influential, who has star quality and so on.
Had the Representation of the People Order (RPO) been in force, then these trivial matters would not be the focal point of interest. The law maintains that each of the grassroots committees of every party will draw up a list of five possible candidates and the parliamentary boards of the respective parties will finalise the nominations from the lists. If the law was followed, then in no way would there be two dozen candidates for one seat, each paying Tk 30,000 for a nomination form. The roads to Dhanmondi and Naya Paltan wouldn’t be jammed.
There is much more to write about the 2018 election, but that is not my objective. It is a different aspect I want to highlight here. This is about the significant political polarisation that is silently taking place.
Memories of 2006 may have faded for many. Awami League had signed a political understanding with Islami Oikya Jote, pledging that if they were elected to power, they would not make any laws contrary to the Qur’an and sunnah. Leftist parties and civil-social groups known to be of the progressive ilk immediately rose up in protest. The cultural alliance, Sammilito Sangskritik Jote, was among them. The left forces were close to Awami League and shared a bond of trust. AL was obliged to cancel its written agreement with Islami Oikya Jote. After that, one section of the leftists joined the AL election alliance, while the other deemed it more prudent to remain out of the fold. The section which remained with AL had tasted power and was more a less a part and parcel of AL. They joined the AL alliance unhesitatingly even in the 2014 polls.
There may be debate over whether the political polarisation to which I have referred actually began in 2006 or even earlier. But 2006 is not my concern, it is 2013 and 2018. About seven months before the election, in May 2013, violence had flared up over the Islamic alliance Hefazat-e-Islam. In that situation, could anyone imagine that this very same conservative hard-line Islamic group would ever forge a bond with AL? In a matter of five years, a sea change took place and the prime minister’s military secretary, addressing gathering of Hefazat, stated that the prime minister had clearly enunciated that as long as she lived, she would not allow any law that was contradictory to the Qur’an and sunnah to be passed in Bangladesh.
Things have changed so much over the past five years that these matters no longer cause concern. Changes have been made to schoolbooks in accordance to Hefazat’s demands. No one is reacting anymore to news of AL’s alliance with Islamic Oikya Jote. The Sammilito Sangskritik Jote said in a press conference it does not see anything wrong in the prime minister attending Hefazat’s mehfil.
These changes have not taken place just in the political sphere, as is evident in this response of the cultural leaders. Yet at that press conference, they didn’t hesitate to take a swipe at the liberal democratic politician Dr Kamal Hossain. They said Dr Kamal Hossain was one of the authors of the 1972 constitution which speaks of Bengali nationalism, yet he contradicts this by using the term Bangladeshi nationalism.
Similarly, the BNP-centred polarisation is also surprising, forging a coalition which would have been unimaginable even a few months back. That is why more than half the opposition leaders during official dialogue with the prime minister reminded her that they were once a part of her party and had received various benefits from her. The list of former Awami Leaguers isn’t restricted to just Kamal Hossain, Mahmudur Rahman Manna, Akram Hossain or Sultan Mansur. Kader Siddiqui has joined up too. JSD leader ASM Abdur Rab, who was part of the AL cabinet though not a former Awami League leader, is also a part of this coalition.
Jatiya Oikya Front, however, has not yet reached any understand on political ideology or sharing power. Their objective declared is revival of democracy. It is not clear what their political pledges are or how they intend to share power if they come to power after reviving democracy.
There is no denying that democracy was hit hard after the one-sided election five years ago. It is not known how far AL leaders realise the consequences to democracy of denying the significance of an active opposition over the past five years. The party is traversing a path of political compromise devoid of ideology and this once power party will now have to consider relinquishing one in every four parliamentary seats to allies, old and new, in order to win the election. BNP too, in the face of strong adversity, is also growing more and more dependent on its coalition. It is to be seen how far this will change its political stance.
* Kamal Ahmed is a senior journalist. This piece, appearing in Prothom Alo print, has been rewritten in English by Ayesha Kabir