'IS is operating in Bangladesh'

Dr Rohan Gunaratna is an international terrorism expert. He is a co-author of The Three Pillars of Radicalization: Needs, Narratives and Networks. He expressed his views on IS, terrorism and other issues at his residence in Singapore on 2 October 2018 and last weekend online, on the third anniversary of Holey Artisan Bakery attack.

Excerpts are given below:
Prothom Alo: Both before and after the Holey Artisan attack, you categorically stated that the IS had established a network in Bangladesh. How do you evaluate the latest developments, three years after the attack?

Rohan Gunaratna : The IS threat is spreading rapidly in Asia where 63% of the world’s Muslim population live. Unlike in the Middle East, Muslims in Asia are moderate, tolerant and value coexistence. However, the influence of Middle Eastern strains of Islam is rapidly replacing the Asian Muslim heritage. With this development, a tiny segment of Asian Muslims are becoming susceptible to IS radicalisation and recruitment. Governments and their partners should do much more than in the past because the entire region is now under threat. IS ideology is spreading both in physical and virtual space. Bangladesh police, military and intelligence services have worked very hard to contain, isolate and eliminate the threat. They must be fully supported.

Prothom Alo : It is apparent that your claim about networking of IS was based on your Bangladesh research including interviews with IS members. Did you publish, in detail, the outcome of your research? Did you see any worrisome penetration of militants in the political process in Bangladesh?

Rohan Gunaratna : A new terrorist group called the Islamic State was established in Bangladesh on 21 July 2015. Tamim Chowdhury, a Canadian citizen of Bangladeshi origin, joined forces with JMB led by Sarwar Jahan. Both of them pledged allegiance to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the so called caliph of the Islamic State. Tamim had direct links to IS in Iraq and Syria and he introduced the IS ideology for killing Shias, Buddhists, Hindus, Christians and foreigners. The declaration to dissolve their own groups and work together was signed by Sarwar and Tamim Chowdhury. Sarwar and Tamim formed a majlis-e-sura [advisory council] and nominated sura members to attack Holey Artisan cafe.

In Bangladesh, as in other countries with Muslim populations, the religious space continues to be penetrated. Bangladesh should criminalise posting and hosting extremist content, regulate both radical local and foreign preachers, and control the spread of the Middle Eastern ideology that is eroding the beautiful Bengali Muslim heritage.

Prothom Alo: You had disputed the claim by the then Inspector General of Police who denied that IS was operating in Bangladesh. The position is still being maintained by the establishment and different agencies of the Bangladesh. How do you evaluate this?

Rohan Gunaratna : To date, Bangladesh government does not want to admit that IS is operating in Bangladesh. However, the counter terrorism operators know that IS is operating based on intelligence, investigations and evidence uncovered. The political leadership is worried that an admission of IS on its soil will create panic, affect investment and impact on tourism. The greatest concern they have is that the US will intervene and Bangladesh will become a geopolitical battle space.

If Bangladesh authorities made it known to the public that it was IS that was operating, both government and ordinary people would have reacted differently. Considering the notoriety of IS, there would have been overwhelming support and pressure to eliminate IS on its soil. Furthermore, the public would have been alert and vigilant. Such a position by the authorities would have made other Asian governments learn from Bangladesh, especially how IS co-opted local groups to expand. In turn, foreign governments would have kept a close watch on the susceptible groups. As Bangladesh remains in denial of the IS threat, there was no sense of urgency and public alertness, both vital to dismantle the IS ecosystem and the radicalisation pipeline.
Prothom Alo: You have contended that the “subsequent investigations” and ‘claims by IS’ validated your earlier assertion that a breakaway faction of JMB had joined IS. Will you kindly narrate the findings of the “investigations”? Did you get access to the reports of the investigations? How do you “solely” rely on the claims made by the IS regarding the JMB faction?

Rohan Gunaratna : I am aware of the terrorist threat landscape in Bangladesh including the IS footprint. During the last 15 years, I interviewed many terrorists in Bangladesh including IS members. I have reviewed hundreds of reports by both Bangladesh and foreign governments. This included a crucial report by a western government identifying Tamim as the IS leader and shared with Bangladesh before the Holey Artisan attack.

In my view, had Bangladesh authorities admitted that the 28 September 2015 attack against the Italian citizen Tavella Cesare whilst jogging in Dhaka was by IS, Holey Artisan attack could have been disrupted. But government denied it was by IS even after IS claimed it. Similarly, on 3 October 2015, IS attacked and killed a Japanese national Kunio Hoshi in a village in Rangpur district. I studied this case very closely. Although government blamed JMB for the attack, the responsibility was once again claimed by IS central and the attacker had pledged allegiance to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi.

The fact is that IS mounted half a dozen attacks in Bangladesh before the Holey Artisan attack. Nonetheless, the authorities did not forewarn its security and intelligence community that IS had built a network and was operating on its soil. As such, the response of the Bangladesh security and intelligence services as well as the public was not so serious. The IS attack against Holey Artisan cafe could have been prevented or pre-empted if government had responded differently to the pre-Holey Artisan attacks by IS.

Prothom Alo : Do you not see any similarities between the style of the recent Sri Lankan terrorist attack and the Holey Artisan massacre? In your South China Morning Post article (23 April, 2019), you mentioned Surabya, Jolo but not Holey Artisan. You mentioned south India, Maldives and Sri Lanka but not Bangladesh.

Rohan Gunaratna : Sri Lanka and Bangladesh suffered from IS attacks. In both cases foreign intelligence services warned of IS presence. Despite both governments having significant counter terrorism capabilities, they failed to capture or kill the terrorist mastermind or disrupt the terrorist attack. In the case of Sri Lanka, IS co-opted National Tawheed Jamaat and Jamiatul Millati Ibrahim fi Seylani and in the case of Bangladesh, IS coopted Jamiatul Mujahidin Bangladesh.

Holey Artisan attack is an early indication of IS operations in Asia. The attack demonstrated the IS intention to attack soft targets, willing to commit suicide, and kill foreigners and non Muslims. Unfortunately, many countries including Sri Lanka did not learn adequately from the Holey Artisan attack.
Three lessons are instructive. First, the threat to open facilities like hotels, malls and cafes, and second, the need to pre-empt slaughter by deploying tactical teams to rapidly respond swiftly to the threat, and, third, prepare for IS modus operandi of non negotiation and the willingness of its operatives to kill and die.

In the context of churches, I referred to Surabya in Indonesia and Jolo in the Philippines because the attacks targeted churches. Places of religious worship are becoming as susceptible to terrorism as the hospitality targets. Both are venues for people to gather and lucrative for the terrorist kill.

Prothom Alo : On 28 September, 2018 in her Colombo residence, former President Chandrika Kumaratunga told me that the country’s post war peace and reconciliation process with the Tamils is satisfactory and press freedom is ‘complete’. How do you see the issue? After the recent attack, many blamed the regime’s “complacency” to the risk factors.

Rohan Gunaratna : The former President Chandrika Kumaratunga has done much to build bridges of harmony between the Sinhala, Tamil and Muslim communities. As nation building is a work in progress, all leaders at all levels should strive to restore the traditional friendships Sinhalese have enjoyed with Tamils and Muslims. No government should take harmony for granted but should work day and night to bring diverse communities together. There is no greater challenge for Sri Lanka than to protect all communities, especially the Muslims. Sri Lankan Muslims are a model community. The Easter Sunday massacre by a few misguided Muslims influenced by the Islamic State does not negate the vast achievement of the Muslims in Sri Lanka. Muslims are our brothers and sisters and they should be protected.

Prothom Alo : Ms Chandrika has claimed that her mother Sirimavo, the then PM, supported the Bangladesh war of independence in 1971 but the fact also remains that West Pakistan was given re-fuelling facilities during the war.

Rohan Gunaratna : During the war of liberation in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka steadfastly supported Pakistan by providing re-fuelling facilities. Sri Lanka does not believe in dividing countries based on ethnicity and religion. However, after Bangladesh was created, Sri Lanka supported Bangladesh. Sri Lankans treasure their relationship both with Pakistan and Bangladesh. Both these countries supported Sri Lanka to defeat the Tamil Tigers, a terrorist group that took Sri Lanka back by 30 years. Very much like Pakistan, Bangladesh training academies and universities provided significant training opportunities for Sri Lankan security forces. Sri Lanka believes in an equidistant foreign policy of friendship to all and enmity to none.

Prothom Alo : You wrote in SCMP that Colombo now needs to exchange and share intelligence to dismantle the terrorists’ support and operational structures. How do you relate that to other South Asian governments? How do you see the Bangladesh’s capability to combat the menace?

Rohan Gunaratna : The IS centric threat is South Asian. Bangladesh is no exception. Bangladesh has built good capabilities within its law enforcement authorities, military forces and national security agencies to fight terrorism. There are three weaknesses, however, that needs to be addressed by the leaders. First, Bangladesh lacks the capabilities to deradicalise terrorists and extremists in custody. Second, Bangladesh needs better community engagement capabilities to prevent and counter radicalisation. And third, Bangladesh should build significant capabilities to counter the online threat of radicalisation.

Prothom Alo : You have suggested that “IS is re-emerging to fight the world with a vengeance”. Does that mean that they have given up the hope for a so-called caliphate or are they moving to soft soils to help regimes of their choice to rise?

Rohan Gunaratna : The IS dream to create a physical caliphate has faded. Due to the commitment of several coalitions to defeat IS, the group no longer controls territory in Iraq and Syria. Nonetheless, IS is still a very capable group. IS leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi is alive and several thousand fighters are still active notably in the border regions of Iraq, Syria and Turkey. IS has built a global infrastructure by declaring provinces in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and the Caucasus. There are over 10,000 IS fighters in the wilayat or provinces of the caliphate. Furthermore, IS has developed mastery in the virtual space and is operating in strength. Both global movements, IS and al Qaeda, present a formidable international, regional, national and local threat to governments and societies.

Prothom Alo : It has been seen that the IS is crumbling in Syria, then how could you argue that IS has been “ entering a new phase of global expansion?”

Rohan Gunaratna : IS has created a support and operational infrastructure worldwide. Although IS strength has diminished in its core of Iraq and Syria, its leadership and networks are intact. IS internal and external operating wings are active. IS can mount attacks worldwide. To defeat IS global expansion, governments should work together to dismantle wherever IS operated. Furthermore, government and community partners should counter the ideology and promote moderation, toleration and coexistence.

Prothom Alo : There was a fear that if they are shunned in the Middle East then they will spread to the “soft soils” including their own home land. Does the issue have any relevance to the Indian subcontinent including Bangladesh?

Rohan Gunaratna : South Asia is a large catchment area for IS. There is a large Muslim population in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Even if 1% embrace the IS strain of Islam, South Asia will become like Iraq or Syria. All counties in South Asia has suffered from IS except Maldives, Nepal and Bhutan. It is a question of time that IS will spread even more and deeper. To prevent IS expansion in South Asia, the governments need to work closely and prevent IS support and operational activity.

Prothom Alo : Do you believe that the genocide against the Rohingya Muslims is the outcome of big power equations in the region? Do you apprehend that it could destabilise the region and beyond if they could not be handled properly?
Rohan Gunaratna : The world needs to declare 2020 as a year of tolerance. Without a global, regional, national and local commitment to coexistence, the existing conflicts will deepen and new conflicts will rise. Like the Palestinians, the Kashmiris, the Moros, the Rohingya conflict has continued for too long. There is no international will to find a permanent solution.

To prevent the further alienation of Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar and Bangladesh, both governments should come together. A negotiator that sees both sides of the problem should resume leadership to mediate and mitigate the conflict.

The Rohingyas have lived in welfare centres for too long. Having visited the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, my view is that the international community should support their relocation. Living for decades in refugee conditions breeds resentment and anger that can manifest in hatred and violence. With the global expansion of IS, will the Rohingya population can become easy prey for radicalisation and recruitment by terrorist and extremist groups. To mitigate the cross border threat, Bangladesh and Myanmar should cooperate and collaborate.
Prothom Alo : Do you think that the UN and international communities, donors are apprehensive about the possible fear of IS penetration in the Rohingya camps in Bangladesh?

Rohan Gunaratna : The vast majority of the Rohingya population on both the Myanmar and Bangladesh side do not believe in revenge and retaliation. They want to live in harmony with other communities However, both al Qaeda and IS centric groups have attempted to radicalise and recruit Rohingyas with limited success. The past saw the emergence of the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation, Arakan Rohingya National Organisation, Harakatuk Jihadi Islami-Arakan, and recently the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army. Although these threat groups do not enjoy broad based Rohingya support, the recruitment of Rohingyas do present a growing and a potential threat.

Having seen what terrorism can do to a community, the vast majority of the Rohingyas want to live in harmony and they should be reintegrated without further delay. Furthermore, there is an appreciable Rohingya community in Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East. It is in no one’s interest to witness the radicalisation and recruitment of Rohingya as the threat will spill over to other countries.

Prothom Alo : How could you analyse the apparent reluctance of China and India towards the Rohingya issue despite the fact that the rise of Islamic militancy could be detrimental for their long term security interests?

Rohan Gunaratna : All the major powers suffer from Muslim threat groups - US, Russia, India and China. China and India do not want an escalation in the threat by the Rohingya threat groups. However, they do not want to push Myanmar beyond a certain point because it is a complex issue. There is also significant competition and geopolitical rivalry for influence in Myanmar. They do not want to lose leverage over Myanmar. Geopolitical interests rank higher over non traditional security threats in the international system.

Prothom Alo : Our prime minister expressed her concern that Rohingya could be a security threat if it is not resolved.

Rohan Gunaratna : Prime minister Shiekh Hasina is right. If the Rohingya issue is not amicably settled, it can have implications not only for Myanmar and Bangladesh but beyond. The conflict zones produce suffering, internal displacement, refugee flows, terrorists and virulent ideologies.

Prothom Alo : Do you have any specific reassessments after your last Dhaka deliberation in the back drop of the Holey Artisan terrorist attack?

Rohan Gunaratna : Bangladesh government should shift from counter terrorism cooperation to counter terrorism collaboration between its law enforcement authorities, military forces and national security agencies. First, the government should build a common counter terrorism database where officers that work on counter terrorism in different agencies should be cleared for access. Second, within the different agencies fighting terrorism, there should be an initiative to exchange personnel especially to introduce best practices and learn best practices. Third, all agencies should conduct joint training and joint operations. Fourth, there should be sharing of experience, expertise and resources especially technology.

Prothom Alo : As a security specialist, how would you suggest Bangladesh could cope with its core security challenges?

Rohan Gunaratna : Government should build a joint intelligence committee that meets every week to share and exchange intelligence. At this point several agencies are holding information on the same target without adequate sharing and exchanging. The government should build a joint threat assessment center that produces consolidated assessments for leaders to decide on matters of national security.

Prothom Alo : Sometimes there is news that few western governments (including Australia, UK, and USA) issue travel warning to their citizens visiting Bangladesh. However, our security specialists like Professor Imtiaz Ahmed say that there are forces that are keen to project Bangladesh as a dangerous place. He stated that the international terrorism index shows the US and India are more dangerous than Bangladesh.

Rohan Gunaratna : Security warning and alerts by any of the Five Eyes countries should be taken very seriously, Had Bangladesh acted in the reporting on Tamim Chowdhury, the IS leader, the Holey Artisan attack could have been prevented or pre-empted. Five Eyes countries - Australia, the United States of America, Canada, United Kingdom and New Zealand - have built a state of the art global intelligence collection and assessment capability unrivalled by other nations. There are instances where certain countries have used and misused threat information to place countries under pressure. In such cases, governments must engage those countries and not silently suffer from the travel advisories. Professor Imtiaz Ahmed is right - Bangladesh does not feature so high on the global terrorism index. Terrorism is a common global threat and Bangladesh is not an exception. Having travelled throughout Bangladesh for over three decades, Bangladesh is not a dangerous place. International investment, trade and tourism in Bangladesh should be fully supported.

Prothom Alo : Bangladesh audience has huge interest in the US-based Site Intelligence Group. Recently, a statement was uploaded in Site website, where it is mentioned that : “for the first time in two years, the Islamic State claimed credit for an attack (on 30 April) in Bangladesh, bombing policemen in the capital, Dhaka.”

Rohan Gunaratna : The SITE Intelligence Group is the most authoritative and credible source of information on IS global expansion. SITE is among the top five research organisations that provide sound and timely social media intelligence to governments worldwide. When SITE first reported about IS presence, Bangladeshi officials did not believe the reports as it did not fit their paradigm. In an attempt to discredit it, some Bangladeshis even labeled SITE as a Jewish organisation and attempted to ridicule its head. Without subscribing to conspiracy theories, so rampant in the Arab world, Bangladeshi scholars and specialists should stand tall. To counter the preeminent threat to their country, the Bangladeshi counter terrorism community should read and research widely, train in the best academies in the world, and develop their expertise and experience in counter terrorism.

Prothom Alo : I have just received an article from Dr Seigfried Wolf, a German political scientist and Director of Research at Brussels-based geopolitical think tank, South Asia Democratic Forum (SADF) who quoted you and concluded :
“It appears that three years after the traumatic HABC attack the country’s leadership and opposition are not willing or able to understand that the costs of ignoring the full dimension of the ‘Global Jihad’ are much higher than narrow political gains. This could lead to further entrenchment of a fundamentalist ethos in Bangladesh.” Do you agree?

Rohan Gunaratna : Bangladesh has not yet developed the far reaching measures to address the radicalisation and militarisation challenge. Beyond the kinetic and lethal response Bangladesh should develop the long term strategies to prevent radicalisation and promote moderation, toleration and coexistence. The best antidote against the contemporary wave of violence is Bengali culture and literature, diverse and rich. If you are a real Bangladeshi, you cannot be a terrorist, extremist or even an exclusivist.

Prothom Alo : In the dark hours of Holey Artisan, there was a young man who rose to show the way of light.

Rohan Gunaratna : The story of Faraz Hossain reflects the Bengali true spirit of inclusiveness. In life and death, he defied the terrorist ideology of exclusivity and extremism. In the face of adversity, Faraz refused to abandon his friends. In a telling message, Faraz sacrificed his life. Terrorists are cowards: Faraz is our ultimate hero.

Prothom Alo : Thank you.

Rohan Gunaratna : Thank you.

* Mizanur Rahman Khan is a joint editor at Prothom Alo.