There was never any doubt about what the Taliban would do but hope springs eternal in the labyrinthine maze of American bureaucracy where of the idea that the US would be able to work with the Taliban to conduct counterterrorism operations against ISIS-K is actually taken seriously. When asked whether the Taliban is an enemy, Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan has suggested that “it’s hard to put a label on it,” because the us is “yet to see what they are going to be now that they’re in control—physical control of Afghanistan.” Clearly, last two decades of fighting against the Taliban has not been enough to understand what they are likely to do in Afghanistan once in control.
There was never any doubt about what the Taliban would do but hope springs eternal in the labyrinthine maze of American bureaucracy where of the idea that the US would be able to work with the Taliban to conduct counterterrorism operations against ISIS-K is actually taken seriously
The Taliban are busy doing what they do best – oppress their own people. Protests are growing across the country as ordinary Afghans push back against the brutality of the Taliban. From Herat to Kabul rallies have been held as a show of defiance with chants of ‘freedom’ in the air. Women are coming out in big numbers to underscore their growing vulnerability under a regime that sees no place for them in society or politics. Taliban Supreme Leader Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada has asked the government to uphold Sharia law. The Taliban have warned the public against protesting “until all the government offices have opened, and the laws for protests have been explained,” making it clear that they would brook no dissent against their rule.
The Biden administration is facing flak at home for its disastrous Afghanistan policy that is likely to hang across Joe Biden’s neck like an albatross. With hundreds of would-be evacuees desperate to board waiting charter flights out of Afghanistan, there is an immediacy to the challenges Washington is facing. But the long term challenge is a more substantive one with the announcement of the new government by the Taliban. The Haqqani network was designated a foreign terrorist organisation when Biden was the vice president. It had targeted US forces and has continued to work in close coordination with Al Qaeda. Now its leader is the interior minister. The Taliban itself has been closely coordinating its actions with Al Qaeda and the Haqqanis, so the assumption that the extremist group will provide a broad based government or that it is even interested in governance says more about those making such assertions than about the Talban.
The US has been left to issue a statement that underscores the dilemmas it faces. It has expressed concerns about “the affiliations and track records of some of the individuals,” adding that America would “judge the Taliban by its actions, not words.” But the Taliban are making it clear with their actions that they have won a military victory which is being cashed as they move towards politics. There will be no negotiated settlement; the barrel of the gun will decide the political spoils. The decimation of resistance in Panjshir valley makes it amply clear.
The US can still salvage some its credibility. But does it have the political will to build a global coalition that refuses to recognise the terrorist government that the Taliban are intent on unleashing in Afghanistan? Washington still hopes “to hold the Taliban to their commitments “to allow safe passage for foreign nationals and Afghans with travel documents, “including permitting flights currently ready to fly out of Afghanistan.”
That violent extremism would gain momentum around the world as a result of this perceived victory of jihadist ideology is a given. Whatever the gloss, this is no victory of a nationalist movement. The Taliban leadership and its foot soldiers retain an extremist ideology at its very core and unless the world comes to terms with this basic reality, there is no possibility of an adequate policy response to a challenge that is only growing to go bigger with time. American follies may have generated the present chaos but its consequences will be felt far and wide. South Asia will be the biggest loser.
* Harsh V Pant is a professor of International Relations with King’s India Institute, King’s College London, UK