United Nations Special Envoy Christine Schraner Burgener warned Myanmar military regime in March 2021 of ‘strong measures and isolation from some countries’. The junta’s deputy, General Soe Win, responded to ‘strong measures’ saying, “We are used to sanctions, and we survived”. His reply to ‘isolation’ was, “We have to learn to walk with only [a] few friends”. Previous military regimes survival stories with supports from ‘a few friends’ were the principal source of the regime’s confidence to press ahead with military rule in Myanmar.
Supports were available immediately after the military coup on 1 February 2021. After the ouster of the NLD government by the military, China called it a ‘cabinet reshuffle’. Russia called it an ‘internal affair’.
Chinese ambassador to Myanmar, in a subtle diplomatic tone, told the media on 15 February 2021, “The current development in Myanmar is absolutely not what China wants to see” and continued with its support for the military regime
A couple of weeks before the coup, China’s foreign minister and Russia’s defence minister visited Myanmar in January 2021. China’s foreign minister called on the military’s Commander-in-Chief. Russia’s defence minister signed an agreement with the Myanmar military to sell Pantsir S1 surface-to-air missile systems, Orian-10E surveillance drones and radar equipment. During the agreement signing ceremony, Myanmar Commander-in-Chief called Russia a “loyal friend” and thanked it for continuous support, especially in difficult moments. During the visit the Russian defence mnister did not meet any member of the civilian government.
The US, UK and the European Union denounced the coup and imposed targeted sanctions against the generals. China and Russia blocked the UK drafted UNSC resolution condemning the coup and taking measures against the regime. China and Russia agreed only to a UNSC press statement issued on 1 April 2021 expressing “deep concern at the rapidly deteriorating situation, and strongly condemned the use of violence against peaceful protestors and the deaths of hundreds of civilians, including women and children.” UNSC members also called for the immediate release of all detainees, including State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint.
People took to the streets with nationwide peaceful protests to denounce the coup. The military regime decided to go by the play book of the autocratic era to clear the streets. In the context of mounting violence and loss of life, Chinese ambassador to Myanmar, in a subtle diplomatic tone, told the media on 15 February 2021, “The current development in Myanmar is absolutely not what China wants to see” and continued with its support for the military regime. People, annoyed with China’s support for the coup regime, attacked Chinese-run factories in Yangon on 15 March 2021. China was greatly concerned about the impact of people’s backlash on its interests in Myanmar including the oil and gas pipeline running between Kyaukphyu in Myanmar and Ruili in China’s Yunan Provice. The crackdown grew ruthless, killing 1,100 protesters and making around 8,000 arrests. Success in clearing the streets of peaceful demonstrations added to the regime’s confidence.
ASEAN member states’ divided response after the coup also added to the regime’s confidence. Cambodia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam endorsed the coup calling it an ‘internal affair’. Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia expressed concern and called for talks to return to civilian rule. Under pressure and intense criticism globally, the association held special summit on 24 April 2021 to discuss Myanmar crisis. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing attended the summit to justify overthrowing of the civilian government.
On 5 October 2021, the European Parliament voted to recognise the Myanmar’s shadow government – the National Unity Government (NUG) and its parliamentary Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH). The recognition was another major embarrassment to the regime
The anti-coup bloc criticised ASEAN for inviting the “coup leader” and the coup regime viewed it as a step forward legitimising the military takeover. ASEAN adopted a five-point road map without any timeline, ‘ending violence, constructive dialogue among all parties, acceptance of aid, a special ASEAN envoy to facilitate discussions and a subsequent visit to Myanmar’. The senior general defied ASEAN peace road map and denied its special envoy’s visit to Myanmar. Consequently, the association in a rare rebuke excluded the coup leader from ASEAN summit held from 26 to 28 October 2021. The junta leader’s exclusion from attending the summit was a blow to its confidence to walk with a few friends.
The regime also suffered diplomatic embarrassment at the UN. The UN retained the credentials of the Myanmar ambassador to the United Nations, U Kyaw Moe Tun, whom the junta fired on charges of betrayal after he called upon the international community, to “use any means necessary” to reverse the coup and protect the country’s people.
Ahead of the 76th UN General Assembly held on 14 September 2021, the junta was desperate to send its representative to take a seat at the UN. The United States and China brokered a deal to decide in November 2021 on Myanmar’s UN seat. Till then U Kyaw Moe Tun will act as Myanmar’s legitimate representative to the UN. What would happen in the credential committee, where China and Russia are also members, could be any body’s guess. China agreeing to the deferral was a move to pacify people’s anger in Myanmar but not blowing a punch to junta’s confidence.
On 5 October 2021, the European Parliament voted to recognise the Myanmar’s shadow government – the National Unity Government (NUG) and its parliamentary Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH). The recognition was another major embarrassment to the regime, which seeks international recognition as Myanmar’s rightful government. On the same day, the French Senate also voted to recognise the NUG. The NUG has also set up representative offices in the United States, UK, France, the Czech Republic, Australia and South Korea. It also appointed an ambassador to ASEAN a couple of days before the summit. NUG is engaging with the foreign governments. Japan, the traditional friend of Myanmar, also demanded a return to civilian rule. ASEAN Parliamentarians on Human Rights called upon ASEAN governments and governments around the world to engage with the NUG. The military regime is worried about being frozen out of the ASEAN bloc, if leaders start engaging NUG in the post summit diplomatic development.
In planning the overthrow of the civilian government, coup organisers surely planned contingencies to counter international pressures, condemnations, sanctions etc. But things do not seem to be going quite by the military dictatorial era play book.
* Mohammad Abdur Razzak is a retired Commodore of Bangladesh
Navy and a security analyst.