How much fuel is in stock, and how justified is panic buying?

In the last fiscal year (2024–25), 415,000 tonnes of octane were sold in the country. Based on this, the average daily demand for octane is about 1,100 tonnes. However, due to panic buying, daily demand has exceeded 2,000 tonnes (according to data from 1–4 March).

Sources at the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC), the state agency responsible for importing and supplying fuel, say this surge in demand is not justified. If fuel continues to be supplied at such a high rate, reserves will be depleted quickly, benefiting hoarders. For this reason, BPC has decided to reduce fuel supply to filling stations. Stations will receive 25 percent less fuel than what they received during the same period last year.

Last Friday, BPC also set limits on fuel sales at filling stations. Under the new rules, motorcycles can purchase 2 litres per day, and private cars 10 litres per day. Limits have also been set for buses and trucks.

According to BPC sources, starting today (Sunday), 913 tonnes of octane will be supplied daily. As of Saturday, octane reserves stood at 23,055 tonnes. At a supply rate of 913 tonnes per day, this stock could last about 25 days. In addition, 25,000 tonnes of octane from domestic sources are expected to be added to reserves this month. BPC is also looking for sources to import another 25,000 tonnes of octane.

If a total of 50,000 tonnes is added to reserves, it could last about 44 days (based on an average daily demand of 1,136 tonnes).

Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Iqbal Hasan Mahmud told reporters yesterday, “There is stock, but none of us knows when the war will end. Shouldn’t we secure our house in advance? Shouldn’t we build reserves?” He added that two more vessels are scheduled to arrive on 9 March, so there is little chance of a shortage.

“Still, since war is ongoing, we have to manage very carefully.”

Earlier, the minister briefed Prime Minister Tarique Rahman about the country’s fuel situation.

On 28 February, the United States and Israel began attacks on Iran, and Iran has been retaliating. The war has disrupted oil and gas production, complicated supply chains, and driven prices up. In this situation, panic buying has begun in Bangladesh, with people lining up for long periods to buy extra fuel. This sudden increase in demand is quickly reducing government reserves.

Octane is mainly used to run cars and motorcycles, though petrol can also power these vehicles. BPC officials say 50 per cent of octane and 100 per cent of petrol are produced domestically, so there is no immediate reason for panic regarding these fuels.

No octane is produced at the government refinery, but BPC regularly purchases octane from four private refineries in addition to imports. These refineries process condensate—a gas by-product obtained from domestic gas fields or imported—to produce octane, petrol, and other fuels.

However, if the war continues for a long time, condensate imports may be disrupted.

Last fiscal year, 462,000 tonnes of petrol were sold in the country, all of which was produced domestically. About 16 per cent came from the state-owned refinery Eastern Refinery Limited (ERL) in Chattogram, while 84 per cent came from private refineries. BPC has no plan to import petrol this year either, as domestic production is expected to meet demand.

Each year, ERL imports about 1.5 million tonnes of crude oil to produce petrol, diesel, furnace oil, and other fuels. The crude oil is imported from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Currently, imports have been suspended due to the war. However, 150,000 tonnes of crude oil remain in stock. With an average refining capacity of 4,000 tonnes per day, ERL can continue production until mid-next month, even without new imports.

BPC sources say the average daily demand for petrol is about 1,300 tonnes, but between 1 and 4 March, daily demand exceeded 2,300 tonnes.
As of yesterday, petrol reserves stood at 15,517 tonnes. From today, 1,070 tonnes will be supplied daily, meaning the current stock will last about 15 days. However, ERL will supply 400 tonnes of petrol per day, and private refineries will also provide regular supplies.

According to BPC estimates, government and private refineries together may supply about 40,000 tonnes of petrol and octane this month. Therefore, there is no immediate risk of stocks running out. But if the war continues and imports remain disrupted, ERL’s production may face difficulties in the coming months.

In fiscal year 2024–25, the country’s diesel demand was 4.35 million tonnes, meaning daily demand is roughly 12,000 tonnes. However, between 1 and 4 March, daily demand rose to about 25,000 tonnes.
From today, 9,022 tonnes of diesel will be supplied daily. After the arrival of a new ship, diesel reserves stood at 161,886 tonnes as of yesterday—enough for about 18 days.

BPC sources say five more diesel ships are expected to arrive in Chattogram by 13 March, carrying 147,205 tonnes of diesel—enough for another 12 days (based on daily demand of 12,000 tonnes). In addition, 50,000 tonnes of diesel will come from domestic government and private refineries this month.

About 18 per cent of the country’s diesel supply comes from ERL. If crude oil imports remain suspended, diesel production may decline next month.

BPC officials say diesel accounts for about 70 per cent of the country’s total fuel demand. After the war began, several diesel shipments were delayed by a few days, causing some concern. Between 14 and 31 March, 11 more ships are scheduled to arrive—nine carrying 270,000 tonnes and two carrying 20,000 tonnes of diesel. However, BPC has not yet confirmed the exact arrival times of these vessels. If they arrive as planned, there will be no diesel shortage.

Overall, 6.835 million tonnes of fuel were sold in the country last fiscal year. Of this, 4.608 million tonnes were imported refined fuel, while 1.936 million tonnes came from domestic refineries.

Mohammad Saiful Islam, secretary of the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, told Prothom Alo that fuel sales had doubled in recent days. Therefore, supply to filling stations is being reduced to prevent waste and smuggling. He said there is no reason to panic about fuel supplies, but citizens need to act responsibly. The government is also considering supplying fuel to filling stations on Saturdays, which is currently not done.

Yesterday, several filling stations in Dhaka closed after running out of fuel by morning or midday. The Filling Station Owners’ Association said fuel supply from depots normally remains closed on Fridays and Saturdays each week. Because of several days of unusually high sales, many stations ran out of fuel yesterday.

Although station owners requested special Saturday supply due to the situation, BPC did not agree. Stations that closed will be able to resume sales from midday today (Sunday) after collecting fuel from depots in the morning.

Mohammad Nazmul Haque, president of a faction of the Petrol Pump Owners’ Association, told Prothom Alo that there should not be a shortage of petrol or octane in the country. However, panic on social media has driven people to crowd filling stations. He said the suffering could have been reduced if BPC had supplied fuel on Saturday. Filling stations should sell fuel according to the government’s limits, and BPC should take action against those who violate them.

Meanwhile, the war has pushed global oil prices higher. The price of crude oil has risen from USD 70 to over USD 90 per barrel. The government is purchasing fuel at these higher prices and is also buying liquefied natural gas (LNG) at elevated prices to address potential shortages. If the war continues and imports are disrupted, a crisis could emerge. The government has therefore taken precautionary measures.

M Tamim, former energy adviser to the chief adviser of a past caretaker government, told Prothom Alo that war could lead to fuel shortages, which is why people are anxious and buying more fuel. However, setting supply limits may increase public panic. He said the government must clearly communicate that there is no immediate cause for fear. While the government is reducing supply to stretch reserves, people should also try to reduce fuel consumption during the wartime situation.