The coronavirus situation in the country is deteriorating rapidly. The number of newly identified patients and casualties both are increasing. According to the World Health Organisation, some 40 among the 64 districts of the country are at very high risk of coronavirus transmission. WHO has identified these districts with very risk by analysing the number of tests and patient identification rate of one week.
Under these circumstances, the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) fears that the Covid situation in the country may escalate to an alarming level if people do not abide by the health guidelines and government instructions to curb the transmission of the virus.
According to the statistics of the DGHS, the number of daily detected patients has been over 4,000 for the last three days. The DGHS said on Wednesday that a total of 5,727 newly infected Covid patients have been identified in the last 24 hours, which is the highest in the last two and a half months. The patient detection rate also crossed the 20 per cent mark after more than two months on that day. As many as 85 people died of coronavirus on Wednesday. Covid related casualties have been above 75 for four consecutive days.
During the initial period of the second wave and first wave of the coronavirus pandemic in the country, the coronavirus transmission rate and casualties were high mainly in Dhaka and Chattogram. Now, both the coronavirus transmission rate and number of deaths due to this are prevalent outside Dhaka and in the north and in the south-western region of the country.
The government has declared lockdown in several districts to curb the transmission. Lockdown has been imposed in seven districts, including four districts surrounding Dhaka, in an attempt to keep the capital isolated from the rest of the country. However, the outcome of these initiatives is still uncertain.
Robed Amin, one of the spokespersons of the DGHS, said during the daily health bulletin on Wednesday that the Covid situation in the country has deteriorated. The virus has spread in several places of the country including the border areas. The coronavirus situation may escalate further if people do not follow the restrictions declared by the government. He also urged the law enforcement agencies to be strict in implementing the restrictions if needed.
Till now, the coronavirus situation hasn’t deteriorated much in the capital. However, according to the WHO, Dhaka is among the districts with high risk of coronavirus transmission.
When asked whether Dhaka would be brought under lockdown or not, Robed Amin said if the situation cannot be controlled, if people’s entry in Dhaka cannot be controlled, the pandemic situation might deteriorate in Dhaka too. In that case, lockdown in Dhaka is inevitable. A proper lockdown will decrease the movement of Dhaka-bound people.
The first coronavirus patient was detected in the country on 8 March last year. The second wave of the pandemic started in the country in March this year. To curb the transmission, the government declared a lockdown on 5 April. Some of the restrictions are still in effect. As a result, the coronavirus transmission started to decrease by mid-April. The upward trend of coronavirus transmission emerged again after Eid-ul-Fitr. Coronavirus transmission increased rapidly especially in the border-lying districts. For the last few weeks, the situation is deteriorating at a rapid speed.
Three levels of risk
WHO published a report on the overall coronavirus situation in the country last Tuesday. Considering the number of tests and the patient identification rate in a week (from 14 to 20 June), WHO has classified the districts in three groups based on the magnitude of coronavirus transmission in respective districts. These three groups are – very high risk, high risk and medium risk.
According to WHO's report, as many as 40 districts among the 64 districts of the country fall under the very high risk group, while 15 districts are in the high risk group and eight districts are in the medium risk group. Bandarban was not considered in this as the number of tests is low in the district.
According to the WHO report, all the 10 districts in Khulna are in the very high risk group. In Rajshahi, six districts are at very high risk of coronavirus transmission while two districts in the division are at medium risk. There are seven districts in Dhaka division which are at very high risk. Two districts, including the capital, are at high risk and four districts are at medium risk.
Five districts are at very high risk and three districts are at high risk of contracting coronavirus in Rangpur division. In Chattogram, six districts including Chattogram are at very high risk, three districts are at high risk and one district is at medium risk of coronavirus transmission.
In Barishal division, three districts are at high risk and three at medium risk. Coronavirus transmission is still relatively low in Sylhet and Mymensingh divisions.
Despite the ongoing lockdown in some districts, the coronavirus situation in the north and south-western part of the country is not improving; rather it is declining day by day. Now, the situation is the worst in Khulna division. Among the 85 who died in the last 24 hours (as of Wednesday), 36 are from Khulna division.
The number of coronavirus patients is increasing rapidly in Khulna, Jashore, Chuadanga, Kushtia, Jhenaidah, Satkhira and Meherpur district of this division. The patients are increasing in Rajshahi, Chapainawabganj, Natore, Naogaon, Pabna of Rajshahi division too.
According to the DGHS press release on Wednesday, 866,877 people have been identified with coronavirus as of Wednesday. Among them, some 791,553 people have recovered and as many as 19,787 people have died. Considering the total number of identities, the death rate in the country is 1.59 per cent. The pandemic has been ongoing in the country for about one and a half years now.
However, there are allegations that the patient management system is not up to the mark. The public health experts are saying the transmission of the virus cannot be contained by imposing lockdowns only. It only can reduce the pace of transmission at most.
Speaking to Prothom Alo, Bangbandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University’s former vice-chancellor and virologist, Nazrul Islam said the DGHS kept its activity confined in delivering some statistics daily and warning about different things.
He questioned the main duty of the health ministry and the health directorate. Are they accomplishing their jobs? What are their working methods? Are they doing the job of detecting patients and taking them to isolation? Are they doing the work related to patient management properly?
Nazrul Islam further said that the common people do not want to know about the statistics only; they want to see the work. If this situation continues, things ahead may be worse than before.