Coalition politics in electoral game

The two leading political parties of the country in this year’s electoral race started the coalition process, informally though, since the fifth parliamentary polls held in 1991.

Both the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have since tied up with like-minded smaller parties with vote banks aimed to shatter the political equation and win majority of seats in parliament to form the government. This time round is no exception.

The trend of forming coalitions has grown stronger over the years after the BNP had marginally won 1991 polls but lost in 1996 fighting alone, with the AL reaping dividends of its alliance making.

The AL emerged victorious in 1996 through a loose coalition with other parties but was dealt a devastating blow when it faced the BNP-led four-party alliance in 2001.

Apparently following the suit of the BNP, the AL contested the 9th parliamentary leading a grand alliance comprising 14-party coalition and General Ershad’s Jatiya Party in 2008. Thus the AL exceeded the BNP’s 2001 landslide victory margin of securing two-thirds of parliamentary seats.

The AL stuck to the formula during the 2014 elections boycotted by the BNP while the BNP has now formed an extended opposition coalition with the Kamal Hossain-led new Jatiya Oikya Front. This has changed the political calculations of the incumbents.

In their bid to form alliances, both AL and BNP tried to bring the Ershad-led Jatiya Party and Jamaat-e-Islami closer to them. Both JaPa and Jamaat helped AL in its movement during the BNP government of then prime minister Khaleda Zia to introduce caretaker government system.

The JaPa then emerged as kingmaker through the 1996 elections when Jamaat became marginalised with only three seats from 18 in 1991 after it distanced itself from the BNP.

“Votes of alliance partners prove to be critical in most constituencies where the results are determined by a small margin of votes. So, importance of smaller parties increases as they make the difference in the race of numbers,” said political researcher Mohiuddin Ahmed.

The fifth parliamentary election held on 27 February, 1991, after the fall of military dictator Ershad, is an example of multi-party race.

The AL, initially confident of victory, did not feel the relevance of forming an electoral alliance, although it had some kind of liaison with pre-polls allies such as Communist party of Bangladesh (CPB) and Baksal.

The BNP, broken and deserted after Ershad’s 1982 takeover, and contesting with new faces, reached an informal understanding with Jamaat-e-Islami during the elections, especially where they could benefit from each other’s vote bank.

The BNP with 30.81 per cent of votes won 140 seats, compared to the AL’s 88 seats despite securing similar percentage (30.08 per cent) of votes.

Jamaat got 12.13 per cent votes winning 18 seats but Ershad’s JaPa with 11.92 per cent votes grabbed 35 seats.

CPB and Baksal secured 5 seats each and two parties got 3 per cent of votes. Other parties and independent candidates got 6 and 3 seats respectively securing more than 12 per cent vote.

The BNP formed the government receiving unconditional support from Jamaat. But they started falling apart when Jahanara Imam launched the movement against the citizenship of Jamaat leader Ghulam Azam.

However, the AL managed to bring Jamaat completely out of the BNP fold when they waged a simultaneous demonstration for the caretaker government.

CPB, Workers Party, Basad (Khalekuzzaman), JSD (Inu), Basad (Mahbub), Sramik Krishak Samajbadi Dal, Samyabadi Dal and Left Democratic Front also joined the movement for the caretaker government.

In the face of tough movement of the combined opposition, the then BNP government dissolved the 5th parliament on 24 November, 1995 and held a one-sided sixth parliamentary election on 15 February 1996.

That parliament was dissolved on 30 March 1996 and a caretaker government was formed with former chief justice Muhammad Habibur Rahman as its chief adviser.

The caretaker government conducted the seventh parliamentary elections in June 1996, so far the last election without any formal alliance.

AL won 146 seats securing 37.44 per cent votes and BNP won 116 seats securing 33.61 per cent votes.

The 1996 polls proved that each of the two major parties alone falls short of winning an absolute majority, but this is the election which began the process of unparalleled dominance of AL and BNP in leading smaller parties to join in coalition with each of them.

In 1996, JaPa got 16.4 per cent votes securing 32 seats while Jamaat’s vote decreased to 8.61 per cent and seats to only 3. Islami Oikya Jote, JSD (Rab) and an independent candidate got one seat each.

Ershad suddenly became important at that moment as both the AL and the BNP vied for his support. However, having spent the entire tenure of the BNP regime in jail, Ershad opted for the AL.

The Awami League formed coalition government taking support from the JaPa and JSD (Rab).

JaPa’s secretary general Anwar Hossain Manju and ASM Abdur Rab of JSD (Rab) were inducted into Sheikh Hasina’s cabinet.

Within three years, Ershad left the AL and formed alliance with BNP. But Manju opted to stay with Hasina cabinet and JaPa saw a split.

In one of the biggest turn in coalition politics, the BNP formed the 4-party alliance with JaPa, Jamaat and Islami Oikya Jote (IOJ) in 1999.

Ershad, who was subsequently jailed in a graft case, left the BNP alliance. The JaPa saw another split as a section of the party under the leadership of Naziur Rahman Manzur opted to stay with the BNP.

When Ershad was in the BNP-led alliance, Sheikh Hasina once said it was up to Ershad to decide whether he opts to stay on the streets or in jail.

JaPa then formed a new coalition with some religion-based political parties under the name of Islami Jatiya Oikya Front.

The AL fought the 8th parliamentary elections held on 1 October 2001 almost alone against the 4-party alliance. The BNP won 193 seats while its ally Jamaat got 17, Bangladesh Jatiya Party (Manzur) 4 and IOJ 2 seats, making the 4-party alliance tally to 216.

AL got only 62 seats.

Ershad’s JaPa secured 14 seats, Kader Siddique’s Krishak Sramik Janata League, JP (Manju) got one each. Six independent candidates were also elected.

This election was an eye opener for AL. BNP secured 193 seats with 40.97 per cent of votes compared to the AL’s 62 seats securing 40.13 per cent votes.

The BNP formed the government offering two cabinet portfolios to Jamaat. IOJ leader Allama Azizul Haque broke away from coalition following disagreement with his party’s leader Fazlul Haque Amini.

The AL later formed the 14-party alliance engaging left-leaning parties and also keeping Ershad’s JaPa by its side.

The political situation of the country turned violent towards the end of BNP alliance’s tenure in 2006. President Iajuddin Ahmed himself took charge as caretaker chief following months of political deadlock. The caretaker government announced that the ninth parliament election would be held on 22 January 2007.
The AL formed a grand alliance taking Ershad and religion-based party Khelafat Majlis with it.

However, an army-controlled caretaker government was installed on 11 January 2007 and it eventually fixed 29 December 2008 as the date for holding the 9th parliamentary elections.

The AL-led alliance swept the elections winning 262 seats while the BNP-led alliance got only 33.

The AL alone secured 230 seats and 49 per cent votes.

The BNP secured 33.2 per cent votes. JaPa got 27 seats with 7 per cent votes. JSD and Workers Party got 3 and 2 seats respectively. Jamaat secured only 4.6 per cent votes won 2 seats.

In the light of results of the four national elections, both the AL and the BNP made alignment and realignment to increase their vote bank.

The BNP’s 4 party alliance has already turned into a 20-party alliance before the main opposition party joined hands with Kamal Hossain-led Front that includes Gano Forum, ASM Abdur Rab’s JSD, Kader Siddiki’s Krishak Sramik Janata League and Mahmudur Rahman Manna’s Nagorik Oikya Jote.

Ahead of 11th parliamentary elections on 30 December, the AL has also added a new coalition styled Jukta Front led by former president AQM Badruddoza Chowdhury. The AL has also made a rapprochement with conservative force Hefajat-e-Islam.

Mohiuddin Ahmed thinks although many smaller parties do not have national support of voters, they have some influential leaders.

“The face value of those leaders might give their respective alliances some weight,” he said. “While there is no iota of ideological homogeneity between these parties, the impact of coalition is yet to be clear,” he added.

* This report, originally published in Prothom Alo Bangla online, has been rewritten in English by Galib Ashraf and Khawaza Main Uddin