What analysts say on Hasina’s Delhi press conference and declaration to return home

Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who was ousted following a student-led mass uprising, addressed a virtual press conference from New Delhi, India, on Wednesday. The Bangladesh government has expressed a strong reaction to the Indian government for permitting her to hold the media conference from New Delhi.

The 78-year-old Sheikh Hasina has been convicted of crimes against humanity in attempts to suppress the student-led uprising in 2024. She is an absconding convict sentenced to death, and her party, the Awami League, has been banned from political activities in the country.

On Wednesday, on the second anniversary of the fall of the Awami League government in the July Uprising, Sheikh Hasina joined online to deliver a speech at a press conference organised by the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of South Asia (FCC South Asia) in New Delhi. She subsequently fielded several questions.

Residing in Delhi for two years, Sheikh Hasina has periodically released audio messages via social media and granted interviews through email to various media outlets. However, this marks the first instance of her joining an event in Delhi online to deliver a direct address.

During the press conference, Sheikh Hasina announced her intention to return home in December this year, a declaration made two years after fleeing to India.

According to analysts, her statement reflects a desperate bid to maintain her political relevance, retain her supporters, and reactivate Awami League, whose activities remain banned in the country.

A report published on Thursday by the influential Japanese news outlet, Nikkei Asia, cited Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst at the US-based think tank Atlantic Council, who outlined three possible motivations behind Sheikh Hasina’s announcement to return:

First, she may perceive the current political environment under the government led by the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) to be more favourable to her than during the interim administration’s tenure. This is because the interim government had banned the political activities of the Awami League, and the judicial proceedings resulting in her death sentence were conducted during its rule.

Second, Sheikh Hasina has claimed that the charges brought against her in court were politically motivated. Consequently, she may wish to present her stance before the court to clear her name.

Third, according to Kugelman, the simplest explanation is that she wishes to retire from politics, return to Bangladesh to spend her remaining days, and ultimately pass away there.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, a senior Awami League leader expressed belief that Sheikh Hasina genuinely intends to return to the country.

The leader noted that returning home serves as a way to reward the loyalty of party leaders and activists.

Meanwhile, Mahmudur Rahman Manna, a former senior Awami League leader and now a staunch critic of Sheikh Hasina, characterised her announcement as self-serving.

“There are certain leaders within Awami League who possess public support and acceptability. Sheikh Hasina could have provided them with space to help the party regain its footing after the ban, but she did not do so,” Manna stated.

Mahmudur Rahman Manna added that the idea of her returning home for the greater interest of the party is unfounded.

According to Professor Mohammad Jalal Uddin Sikder of the Department of Political Science at North South University in Dhaka, Sheikh Hasina also aims to exert political pressure on Prime Minister Tarique Rahman by threatening to return.

Analysts contend that even if Sheikh Hasina returns, her immediate scope for political activity will remain severely constrained. Nevertheless, her presence could significantly impact the current political landscape in Bangladesh.

Kugelman told Nikkei Asia that should Sheikh Hasina return, she would almost certainly be arrested at the airport. Furthermore, her return could mobilise both her supporters and detractors, raising the risk of violent clashes and placing pressure on the government regarding the conduct of her judicial process.

In Kugelman’s assessment, “Her mere return would be destabilising.”

Professor Mohammad Jalal Uddin Sikder told AFP, “Even if she were taken directly to prison upon her return from India, the Bangladesh government is not prepared to receive Sheikh Hasina. Her return would generate political turmoil.”

Zahed Ur Rahman, an adviser to the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, stated that the Bangladesh government has sent a letter to the Indian government requesting her extradition, emphasising that the government is fully prepared to ensure justice.

“The individual whom we seek to extradite is herself speaking of returning home. We are prepared. Let her come, and we will ensure justice,” Zahed Ur Rahman added.

Sheikh Hasina’s declaration comes at a time when Bangladesh and India are striving to normalise strained bilateral ties. However, her presence remains a major point of contention in bilateral relations.

The Bangladesh government has repeatedly requested India to extradite Sheikh Hasina, while India has stated that the request is being evaluated through legal channels. Nevertheless, relations between the two nations have improved following the election of BNP leader Tarique Rahman as Prime Minister of Bangladesh. India has extended an invitation to him to attend the BRICS summit scheduled for September.

Prior to Sheikh Hasina’s press conference, Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs, clarified during a press briefing that New Delhi had no involvement in the event.

The government has no involvement in this matter, nor does it endorse any views expressed at the event, Jaiswal stated.

On 3 August, prime minister’s Foreign Affairs Adviser Humayun Kabir sought the cooperation of the Indian government to ensure that no individuals from the banned Awami League, including Sheikh Hasina, use Indian territory to deliver political statements.

He warned that such activities could undermine positive momentum in Bangladesh-India bilateral relations. Adviser Humayun Kabir conveyed this message to the High Commissioner of India to Bangladesh, Dinesh Trivedi, during a courtesy call in Dhaka.

Following Sheikh Hasina’s address, Bangladesh’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on Wednesday night conveying a sharp reaction to the Indian government.

The statement read, “Bangladesh is outraged that the absconding convicted genocider Sheikh Hasina was allowed this evening to engage in live interaction with the media in New Delhi where she and her henchmen launched venomous vitriol against the State of Bangladesh and her people.”

The government noted that concerns regarding the potential negative impact of such an event on renewed bilateral efforts had been communicated to the Indian government in advance. Dhaka expressed deep disappointment that the event was nevertheless allowed on Indian soil.

The foreign ministry’s statement further asserted that holding such an interaction on the second anniversary of the July Revolution—a day observed by the people of Bangladesh—constitutes an affront to Bangladesh’s sovereignty and a grave insult to the martyrs of the uprising.

Michael Kugelman remarked to Nikkei Asia, “India has taken a middle-ground approach with this press conference. I don’t think that explanation will play well in Dhaka.”

According to Kugelman, India could have prevented the press conference had it chosen to do so. Consequently, Bangladesh is likely to view the incident as another instance of New Delhi indulging its long-standing political ally, Sheikh Hasina.

Sreeradha Datta, Professor of International Relations at OP Jindal Global University, told Nikkei Asia that the incident occurred just as Bangladesh and India were gradually attempting to normalise ties after nearly two years of strain.

“While there has been a resumption of tourist visas, the bilateral relationship hasn’t yet normalised,” she said. “It is still moving at a very slow pace,” Professor Datta added.

However, she advised against viewing this as a long-term setback, noting: “Both India and Bangladesh stand to gain by working with each other.”

According to a report by The Diplomat, forcibly deporting Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh is not a realistic option for India. However, if she returns voluntarily, current bilateral tensions may ease to some extent.

Speculation suggests that India is liaising covertly with several European nations to guarantee her safety upon return, though the Indian Ministry of External Affairs has refrained from commenting on the matter.

The Diplomat noted that bilateral relations were warm during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, but the dynamic shifted after her removal. New Delhi maintained that the interim government, led by Professor Muhammad Yunus, tilted towards China while failing to adequately address India’s core concerns.

The election of the BNP-led government in February raised hopes for rebuilding ties. In this context, Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman’s visit to New Delhi in April was regarded as an initiative to restore mutual trust.

Maintaining a stable relationship with Bangladesh is crucial for India due to their shared border spanning nearly 4,100 kilometres. Additionally, India seeks Dhaka’s cooperation to bolster connectivity with its landlocked northeastern region and to suppress insurgencies in that territory.

In light of these strategic imperatives, India has taken several positive steps towards Bangladesh in recent months. In February, India dispatched Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla to attend Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s swearing-in ceremony.

In April this year, during an energy crisis, India supplied over 45,000 tonnes of diesel to Bangladesh. Furthermore, Dinesh Trivedi was appointed as the new High Commissioner to Dhaka to rebuild bilateral relations, receiving the status of a minister to facilitate direct communication with the Prime Minister of Bangladesh.

India has also extended an invitation to Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to attend the BRICS summit in Delhi in September (in his capacity as BIMSTEC Chair), although the Prime Minister of Bangladesh is yet to accept the invitation.

The Diplomat report highlighted that the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty could play a pivotal role in determining the future trajectory of Bangladesh-India relations. The 30-year treaty is set to expire in December this year.

The renewal process must account for current Ganges water flow levels and the impact of climate change on both nations. Analysts suggest that a timely renewal would place Dhaka-New Delhi ties on a far firmer footing.

The report further noted that with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently in power in both India’s central government and West Bengal, favourable conditions exist for concluding the Teesta Water Sharing Treaty, an agreement previously opposed by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.

The Diplomat concluded that normalising Bangladesh-India relations is now an urgent priority. However, New Delhi must first take measures to mitigate the diplomatic fallout surrounding Sheikh Hasina’s online press conference.