Cox’s Bazar's 4 constituencies: More calculation than emotion among voters

It is 9:30 in the morning at Kolatali intersection in Cox’s Bazar town. I am standing at a tea stall. Soft sunlight filters through, while the sound of waves crashing onto the shore drifts in from the beach. I bring up the subject of voting. A middle-aged man responds, “There will be an election, but this time the calculations seem a little different.”

Usually, arguments over politics and discussions about elections gather pace at tea stalls in the late afternoon or evening. The first person to respond so early in the morning is Mohammad Mostofa, a resident of Samiti Para in Cox’s Bazar town. He appears practical in his conversation. But when he says “this time the calculation is different,” he does not explain clearly what that calculation is—only hints at it.

To understand the electoral situation, I arrived in the tourist city of Cox’s Bazar last Sunday. After travelling around different parts of the district over three days, it seemed that Mostofa’s remark—“this time the calculation is different”—summarises the electoral atmosphere of the entire district.

Another noticeable aspect is that this time voters show less emotion and more calculation. Most people I spoke to avoided strong assertions; everyone seemed to be weighing options. Young voters in particular are not attached to any specific party or symbol—they want to understand what they will receive over the next five years.

Four constituencies, four realities

Cox’s Bazar district has four parliamentary constituencies. Surrounded by hills, rivers, sea, and borderlands, each has distinct realities. Cox’s Bazar is not only a tourist city; it is also a coastal district adjacent to a seaport.

Two nationally important politicians are contesting from different constituencies this time: BNP National Standing Committee member Salahuddin Ahmed and Jamaat-e-Islami central Assistant Secretary Hamidur Rahman Azad. For this reason, many eyes are on the district.

Cox’s Bazar-1: Is the ‘uneven contest’ becoming complicated?

Cox’s Bazar-1 (Chakaria–Pekua) has drawn attention because of BNP leader and former state minister Salahuddin Ahmed. He and his wife have both been elected MP from this constituency four times.

Travelling across various unions in Chakaria and Pekua from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday evening and speaking with residents suggests that what was expected to be an “uneven contest” between Salahuddin Ahmed and Jamaat’s young candidate Abdullah Al Faruk is not turning out that way.

Another candidate here is Sarwar Alam Kutubi of Islami Andolan Bangladesh, though locals believe the main contest will be between Salahuddin Ahmed and Faruk.

Over the past two days I visited areas including Islam Nagar, Shiklaghat, Halkakara in Chakaria municipality, and parts of Jalialkhali and Shilkhali unions in Pekua Sadar, accompanied by Prothom Alo’s Chakaria correspondent S M Hanif. Residents say much of the visible development in Chakaria–Pekua was built on foundations laid by Salahuddin Ahmed. In 1991, he brought the first bricks for government buildings to Pekua.

How Abdullah Al Faruk—relatively new and currently the Jamaat ameer of Cox’s Bazar town—has emerged as an opponent to Salahuddin Ahmed is also a topic of discussion.

Around 9:00pm Tuesday in Pekua’s Chowmuhani, I speak with Nurul Amin, a salt farmer from Jalialkhali Sadar, whose motorcycle bears a sticker of the scales symbol. He expresses optimism about the Jamaat candidate’s chances.

Supporters of the paddy sheaf symbol argue that Salahuddin Ahmed is a national leader who could again become a minister if BNP comes to power and that development has occurred under him.

Responding to this, Nurul Amin says: “All that may be true, there’s no controversy about him. But after the 5 August, BNP activists have threatened people, seized enclosures (gher), and engaged in extortion. That’s why people say Faruk is better.”

Speaking at his Pekua home, Salahuddin Ahmed tells Prothom Alo that when complaints arose about isolated incidents, strict measures were taken, and claims they have suffered more propaganda than reality over the past year or so.

Asked why he sees himself as a strong contender, Faruk says national issues matter to voters. People want a corruption-free country and need “fresh” individuals; development will follow naturally.

Salahuddin Ahmed, however, comments: “If they have 500 votes, they think they’ll be chairman; if they have 5,000, they think they’ll be MP.”

There are 540,000 voters in Cox’s Bazar-1—390,000 in Chakaria and 146,000 in Pekua. Salahuddin Ahmed’s home is in Pekua; Faruk’s in Chakaria. Although talk persists about regional voting patterns, no such impact was evident until yesterday. Local residents, journalists, and teachers say Jamaat’s candidate complicated the field after the schedule announcement, but the past week has seen a shift, with Salahuddin Ahmed maintaining continuous outreach.

Can Azad succeed?

Cox’s Bazar-2, comprising Maheshkhali and Kutubdia, is an island constituency. Jamaat’s central Assistant Secretary General A H M Hamidur Rahman Azad faces BNP’s central executive committee member Alamgir Muhammad Mahfuz Ullah Farid.

Both are former MPs who were previously elected under a BNP-Jamaat alliance. Now they compete against each other. There are 387,851 voters—104,919 in Kutubdia and 282,932 in Maheshkhali. Azad’s home is in Kutubdia; Farid’s in Maheshkhali. Regional dynamics could disadvantage Azad if they dominate.

Azad says attempts to emphasise regional divisions have failed, noting similar strategies during past Awami League contests when he still won. He expresses full confidence in victory if the election is fair.

On the other hand, it is believed that if regional considerations influence the vote, it could work in favour of the BNP candidate. Beyond that, all sides are calculating which way supporters of the Awami League might cast their ballots.

There is also discussion about internal discord within the BNP. Local sources say that although the rifts appear settled on the surface, tensions persist beneath. However, BNP candidate Alamgir Muhammad Mahfuz Ullah told Prothom Alo yesterday that there are no problems now and that everyone has united. He also expressed confidence about winning.

Strong competition in the sadar seat

Cox’s Bazar-3 (Sadar–Ramu–Eidgaon) is tourism-centred, with issues such as tourism, business, traffic congestion, cost of living, and land grabbing shaping realities. These concerns have not been overshadowed by party-symbol politics.

Five candidates are contesting, notably BNP’s Lutfur Rahman Kajol, Jamaat’s Shahidul Alam Bahadur, and Islami Andolan’s Amirul Islam. The main contest is expected between Kajol and Bahadur.

Kajol is a former MP from an influential local family; Bahadur is a former vice-chairman of Cox’s Bazar Sadar Upazila Parishad and a former VP of Cox’s Bazar Government College.

Earlier I wrote that speaking with low-income workers en route from Dhaka to Teknaf suggested many favoured a particular party. That assumption faltered here. On Sunday, after arriving at Cox’s Bazar railway station, I asked auto-rickshaw driver Sohag about the situation. He says Kajol is a good person who has never harmed anyone and is financially secure; his position looks strong.

Yet conversations across at least ten locations show newcomer Bahadur has built strong competition, with some predicting a neck-and-neck race. Nasir Uddin of Ramu says the wind seems to favour Kajol slightly, but Bahadur will not lag far behind; whoever wins will do so narrowly.

The district’s most sensitive constituency is Cox’s Bazar-4 (Ukhiya–Teknaf), where the Rohingya crisis, drugs and human trafficking, and cross-border security dominate discussion. BNP’s experienced politician and four-time MP Shahjahan Chowdhury faces strong competition from Jamaat’s Noor Ahmed Anwari.

No ‘one-sided wave’

After several days in Cox’s Bazar, the clear picture is that calculation outweighs emotion in this election.

Alongside national stature and local influence, voters weigh past performance and potential real-life changes from shifts in power.

As a result, no clear “one-sided wave” is visible—rather, many are making last-minute calculations before deciding.

At that tea stall in Kolatali intersection, Mostofa said, “This time the calculation is different.” After visiting all four constituencies, that statement seems entirely accurate.