'COVID-19 infection still risky after four months of outbreak'

The rate of community transmission of COVID-19 is still on the rise in Bangladesh, according to the statistics of the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS).

The health experts have called the trend risky.

The health directorate's daily news bulletin, which provides sample tests and the number of infections, shows the infection rate is below one per cent. But the number of sample tests is getting less.

The experts said the assessment of infection rate based on decreased number of sample tests is not accurate.

Earlier, they suggested conducting at least 20,000 samples daily.

On Saturday, only 11,193 samples were tested. It is 44 per cent less than what has been suggested.

A team of economists, public health experts and data analysts have been assisting the DGHS since April in analysing the infection situation.

"The infection situation may be stable currently. But there is not enough information, data, statistics to say that the infection rate is below one per cent. There must be more tests," Shafiun Shimul told Prothom Alo.

Shimul is a member of the team and also an associate professor at the Institute of Health Economics at Dhaka University.

Health directorate spokesperson Ayesha Akhter told Prothom Alo, “It’s not the time to say that the infection has decreased. The infection is likely to go down, though.”

Achievements lost

Coronavirus tests were performed only in the laboratory of the government's Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) between January and 3 May.

Many new laboratories began to test samples since 4 May. On 26 June, the health directorate reported tests of 18,498 samples. It said the samples were tested in 66 laboratories.

This was the highest number of sample tests in one day. Since then the tests have been decreasing, although there are 77 laboratories operating now.

Four months into the outbreak of coronavirus in the country, the health directorate seems to be unable to sustain the achievement. The declining of tests is an example of that.

Mujaherul Haque, a former WHO consultant for the South-East Asia region, told Prothom Alo that the government did not have adequate strategic planning and preparedness to deal with the pandemic.

“That is why it has been seen to suffer from indecision on various issues. The authorities could not also implement many of their decisions they made,” he added.

Mujaherul Haque also mentioned the issue of fixing the test fee.

Several public health experts have said that the rich will go for testing even if the fee is Tk 10,000. But the daily wage earners cannot test for Tk 200. This is one of the main reasons for the decline in the number of tests.

People in Bangladesh came to know about the novel coronavirus in January.

The health and family welfare ministry has been talking about preparations since then. On 1 February, Bangladesh quarantined 312 Bangladeshis returning from China at the capital's Ashkona Hajj Camp to help prevent and control the infection.

The initial initiatives were not performed properly. The China returnees objected about the mismanagement in the quarantine centre. One of the reasons behind the mismanagement was the lack of coordination between the various ministries and departments of the government.

After four months, the lack of coordination has become even more evident in the fact that Bangladeshi nationals have not been allowed to land in Italy.

Allegations against Bangladesh of using false information in COVID-19 tests have spread worldwide. The government is yet to come up with any strong explanation about this. People think that irregularities and corruption are associated with lack of coordination.

Lack of basic work

Microbiologists, researchers, public health experts and physicians throughout the world had no idea about the new virus, which was found in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December last year.

Each country has tried to prevent and control infections in its own way. The World Health Organization is helping every country in the world with information, analysis, guidance and advice. Some countries pay heed to the advice while some have ignored.

The countries that listened to the WHO’s advice are preparing to return to normal life. Public health expert Mujaherul Haque said, “Contact tracing is a very important.

The health directorate continues to neglect this important work.” IEDCR has been conducting contact tracing since the first COVID-19 patient was identified in the country on 8 March. When the infection began to take a massive turn in late April, IEDCR stopped contact tracing.

Only health authorities not responsible

One of the key tasks of the pandemic response is to curb the infection. Then comes the issue of treatment. The pandemic has an impact on people's internal and international movement, trade and economy. It has a profound impact on education.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the pandemic is not the responsibility of health authorities alone. The whole government has to be involved in this.

Had there been effective coordination between the various ministries, the deportation of Bangladeshis from Italy would not have happened. Due to the weakness of the health directorate, the people of the country were able to get fake certificates.

But the health authorities have not been able to find how people got the certificates. Many people are still not following the health rules. Many are walking on the streets without masks. Many of them are not ​​maintaining social distancing. The government has largely shied away from campaigning about this.

Dhaka North City Corporation implemented an experimental lockdown in the capital's East Rajabazar with the message that lockdown is the only solution to control the infection. To an utter surprise, 61 per cent of the samples of the area tested positive.

The residents of East Rajabazar or people of the country did not get any explanation of this. Lockdown is going on in Wari now. It has been heard for more than a month that there are preparations for lockdown on a large scale in small areas.

According to sources, a team of 13 experts is working on a standard operating procedure (SOP). The group meets at least three days a week at 9:00pm.

The health ministry, local government ministry and public administration ministry are waiting for their final reports. People are looking forward to drugs or vaccines.

It also requires preparation. Issues such as from whom people will get vaccines, how many vaccines people will get, what will be the immunization management, who will get vaccinated first on priority basis, what will happen to those who need it but will not get it, need to be discussed and preparation needs to be started from now on. The country that prepares first, stays ahead.

That is the requisite to get back to normal life.

*This report, originally published in Prothom Alo print edition, has been rewritten in English by Farjana Liakat