With Bangladesh heading toward its 13th national parliamentary election, a new public opinion survey released by Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) projects a clear lead for the BNP-led alliance.
The survey, conducted among 41,500 respondents nationwide, estimates that the BNP-led alliance could win about 208 seats in the election.
According to the findings, the Jamaat-e-Islami–led alliance is projected to secure 46 seats, while the Jatiya Party may win three seats. Other political parties are expected to secure four seats, and independent candidates could win 17 seats, the survey said.
The survey results were unveiled on Monday afternoon at the 3D Seminar Hall of the Krishibid Institution in the capital. EASD claimed that among all surveys conducted so far regarding the upcoming election, this one has the largest sample size.
EASD chief executive officer Shamim Haider Talukdar presented the survey findings.
He said the survey was conducted across all 300 parliamentary constituencies using the Primary Sampling Unit (PSU) method. Data from a total of 41,500 respondents were collected through the digital platform Kobo Toolbox. From 18 January to 31 January, 150 trained data collectors worked in the field. To reflect the country’s diverse demographic and regional perspectives, a total of 2,766 PSUs nationwide were included.
From each PSU, 15 households were selected sequentially, and one eligible respondent from each household was interviewed to ensure systematic and unbiased data collection. Unions were considered clusters for rural areas and wards for urban areas, ensuring equal representation of both rural and urban populations, he added.
He further stated that among the 41,500 respondents, 26,560 were men (64 per cent) and 14,922 were women (36 per cent). Youth aged 18–30 accounted for 37.2 per cent of respondents. Among participants, 45.2 per cent were aged 31–50, including 27.5 per cent aged 31–40 and 17.7 per cent aged 41–50.
The largest occupational group among respondents was businesspeople, accounting for 21.9 per cent. Of them, 5 per cent were large and medium business owners, while 16.9 per cent were small business owners. Participants from the agriculture and rural labour sectors made up 13.2 per cent. Meanwhile, those engaged in household and informal sectors accounted for 19.1 per cent, and students comprised 14.5 per cent of respondents.
Findings
According to the EASD survey, the majority of voters in Bangladesh prefer the BNP in terms of political choice. As many as 66.3 per cent of voters expressed their intention to vote for the BNP. Jamaat-e-Islami ranked second with 11.9 per cent support. The NCP received 1.7 per cent support, while among others, the Jatiya Party secured 4 per cent and independent candidates 2.6 per cent.
The survey results noted that the BNP enjoys greater popularity among female voters, with 71.1 per cent of women expressing support for the party. The BNP-led alliance received its highest support in Chattogram (76.8 per cent) and Sylhet (75.6 per cent). However, the Jamaat-led alliance showed strong positions in Barishal (17.8 per cent) and Khulna (18.6 per cent). In Rangpur in the northern region, the Jatiya Party received support from 3 per cent of voters.
Shamim Haider Talukdar said that 66.4 per cent of respondents believe the BNP-led alliance will be able to form the next government after the election, and 66.3 per cent believe BNP candidates will win in their respective constituencies. Overall, the survey strongly reflects the political aspirations of the general public and expectations for major change centred on the BNP.
The survey also revealed that a significant portion of voters who previously voted for the Awami League are now in favour of change. Shamim Haider Talukdar said that 80 per cent of former Awami League voters expressed interest in voting for the BNP in the upcoming election. At the same time, 15 per cent of former Awami League voters said they would support Jamaat-e-Islami, while the remaining 5 per cent expressed support for other political parties.
According to the survey results, the BNP-led alliance is likely to secure the highest number of seats in the upcoming election, winning approximately 208 seats. The Jamaat-led alliance may win 46 seats, while the Jatiya Party may secure 3 seats, other parties 4 seats, and independent candidates 17 seats. Additionally, 22 constituencies are expected to witness closely contested races.
Regarding preferences for the next prime minister, 68 per cent of respondents expressed support for BNP Chairperson Tarique Rahman. Jamaat Ameer Shafiqur Rahman received support from 14 per cent, while NCP Convener Nahid Islam received support from 2 per cent. Meanwhile, 16 per cent of respondents said they were unwilling to express an opinion on this matter.
The survey release event was chaired by EASD Adviser Kazi Saifuddin Bennur. Following the presentation, a panel discussion was held with participation from Professor Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir of the Department of Development Studies at Dhaka University; ASM Amanullah, Vice-Chancellor of the National University; Shamsul Alam Selim, Chairman of the Department of Government and Politics at Jahangirnagar University; Professor Nahreen I Khan of the Department of Geography and Environment at Jahangirnagar University; Associate Professor Toufiq Jouarder from the National University of Singapore; and Mir Nadia Nivin, former member of the Election System Reform Commission.