Respondents from six of the country’s eight divisions favored the BNP in a survey asking voters whom they would support in the upcoming national elections. Jamaat-e-Islami leads in Rangpur division, while the banned Awami League is ahead in Barishal division.
These findings were presented today, Wednesday, at the National Archives auditorium in Dhaka during the release of the second phase of the second round of the survey titled “People’s Election Pulse Survey.”
The survey was conducted by consulting firm Innovision Consulting, with support from the civic platform Voice for Reform and the Bangladesh Research and Analysis and Information Network (BRAIN). The results were presented by Innovision Consulting’s Managing Director, Rubaiyat Sarwar.
Among the 10,413 participants, 4,721 expressed their preference for a party. The results showed BNP ahead in Dhaka, Mymensingh, Sylhet, Khulna, Chattogram, and Rajshahi divisions. Support levels for BNP in these divisions were 40.8 per cent, 45.7 per cent, 44.7 per cent, 43.3 per cent, 41.9 per cent, and 44.4 per cent, respectively.
Analysis of the results indicates that BNP’s support increases with voters’ age, while Jamaat’s declines. On the other hand, support for Jamaat rises with education level, while it decreases for BNP. Jamaat’s backing is stronger among Gen-Z voters and women.
Meanwhile, Jamaat-e-Islami leads Rangpur division with support from 43.4 per cent of respondents. In Barishal division, the banned Awami League was ahead with 31.9 per cent support.
Analysis of the results indicates that BNP’s support increases with voters’ age, while Jamaat’s declines. On the other hand, support for Jamaat rises with education level, while it decreases for BNP. Jamaat’s backing is stronger among Gen-Z voters and women.
According to the survey, 39.1 per cent of respondents believe BNP is the most capable party to form the next government. Jamaat was considered capable by 28.1 per cent, while 17.7 per cent named Awami League. Another 4.9 per cent of respondents viewed NCP as the most capable.
Satisfaction with local-level activities
Voters were asked about their satisfaction with local-level political activities. Jamaat ranked highest: 47.4 per cent said they were completely, very, or somewhat satisfied with its activities, while 19.7 per cent said they were not satisfied at all. NCP came next, with 40.7 per cent of respondents satisfied and 17 per cent not satisfied at all.
For BNP, 39.4 per cent of respondents said they were completely, very, or somewhat satisfied, while 27.6 per cent were not satisfied at all. Despite being banned, Awami League drew the highest dissatisfaction—33.4 per cent said they were not satisfied at all with its activities. However, 26.1 per cent said they were completely, very, or somewhat satisfied.
Concerns over security
Respondents were also asked why they might refrain from voting. The highest share, 32.65 per cent, cited security concerns. Another 20.41 per cent pointed to a lack of trust in mainstream political parties, while 20.15 per cent were uncertain about whether their preferred party would contest the election.
India–Pakistan relations
When asked about desired foreign relations, most respondents favored good ties with both India and Pakistan. Some 72.2 per cent wanted good relations with India, while 69 per cent wanted good relations with Pakistan.
At the survey results launch, speakers included Professor Asif M Shahan of Dhaka University; Fahim Mashroor, co-coordinator of Voice for Reform; Shafiqur Rahman, Executive Director of BRAIN; and Zaima Islam, senior reporter at The Daily Star.