Around 30 to 35 per cent of global seaborne fertiliser shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman. Since Iran effectively closed the strait following the outbreak of war on 28 February, concerns have emerged worldwide over fertiliser supply disruptions.
In this situation, the Ministry of Agriculture says Bangladesh has sufficient fertiliser stock until June. However, keeping future needs in mind, efforts are underway to identify new sources for imports.
The Ministry of Industries has already written to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs requesting feasibility assessments for importing fertiliser from three new sources. Following the 16 March letter, Bangladesh missions in Malaysia, Brunei, and Vietnam have begun evaluating the possibilities. If responses are positive, fertiliser will be imported from these countries. However, the ministry has not disclosed the planned volume of imports.
At the same time, the Ministry of Agriculture has initiated contacts with Brazil and China for potential fertiliser imports.
Agriculture Secretary Rafiqul I Mohammad told Prothom Alo, “Our stock is sufficient for the current fiscal year.” He added that the process of identifying alternative sources has already begun, and fertiliser will be sourced from wherever costs are lower.
Fertiliser imports are handled by two state agencies—the Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC) under the Ministry of Industries and the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC) under the Ministry of Agriculture. BCIC imports urea, while BADC imports non-urea fertilisers such as TSP, MOP, and DAP.
Although there is no immediate shortage, failure to continue imports could affect Aman rice production, the country’s second-largest rice season. This year’s Aman production target is set at 18.1 million metric tons. Seedbed preparation begins in July–August, and according to the Department of Agricultural Extension, Aman cultivation will cover 6 million hectares this season.
Import and Stock Situation
According to BCIC, the country’s annual demand for urea is 2.6 million tons. In the current fiscal year (2025–26), 1.314 million tons have been imported so far, with 375,000 tons currently in stock. A stock level of 400,000 tons is considered safe.
BCIC has floated open tenders to import an additional 200,000 tons of urea. It is also negotiating government-to-government (G2G) deals with Saudi Arabia and the UAE for another 300,000 tons, though shipments depend on the normalisation of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the Agriculture Ministry’s fertiliser management division, At the same time, demand for fertiliser between March and June includes 424,213 tons of urea, over 1.07 million tons of TSP, 192,934 tons of DAP, and 139,600 tons of MOP. BADC reports that current stocks stand at 322,000 tons of TSP, 437,000 tons of DAP, and 318,000 tons of MOP.
DAP is imported from Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and China; TSP from Morocco and Tunisia; and MOP from Russia and Canada.
The Agriculture Secretary said efforts are underway to explore routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Discussions have also begun with Chinese fertiliser companies at the ministerial level. The aim is to find sources where the combined cost of product and transportation is lowest.
He explained with an example: “Brazil has cheaper fertiliser, but transportation costs are high. So overall expenses may rise. We are analysing all markets mathematically to determine the most cost-effective source.”
Production Situation
Despite sufficient imports, domestic production by BCIC has declined. In FY 2024–25, fertiliser factories under the Ministry of Industries produced 853,791 tons. In the current fiscal year, production has dropped to 782,522 tons.
The Agriculture Secretary said efforts are being made to resume operations at the Ghorashal–Polash Urea Fertiliser Factory in Narsingdi by ensuring gas supply from the Energy Ministry.
According to BCIC, the factory has a daily production capacity of 2,800 tons and an annual capacity of 924,000 tons. Bangladesh has seven fertiliser factories—six produce urea, while one produces TSP. However, gas shortages disrupted production at nearly all plants last fiscal year.
Rising Prices
Global fertiliser prices are rising due to the Middle East crisis. BCIC purchased urea in January at $400–450 per ton, but by March the price had surged to $717 per ton.
BADC reported that DAP prices rose from $651 per ton in January to $800 per ton currently.
A March report by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) stated that urea prices have increased by up to 19 per cent due to the conflict. If the situation persists, countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and many in Africa may face fertiliser shortages, disrupting crop production and pushing up food prices.
BADC officials noted that it takes at least 180 days (six months) from import to distribution at the farmer level. Therefore, efforts are being made now to secure alternative sources so that farmers do not face shortages when the Boro season begins in October.