'ICJ’s provisional verdict will give a sense of which way the court is leaning'
John Packer is associate professor of law and director of the Human Rights Research and Education Centre (HRREC) at the University of Ottawa. Having served as assistant to the first UN special rapporteur on the human rights situation in Myanmar in 1992-93, John Packer has remained engaged with the Rohingya issue, drawing the world’s attention to their situation as the world’s most numerous homeless people. Recently in Bangladesh on his second visit to the country, Packer visited the Prothom Alo office on Wednesday and shared his views with senior journalists about the Rohingya issue, the case taken up by Gambia and developments at the International Court of Justice in this connection.
The provisional measures to be declared in the case brought against Myanmar by Gambia, presently underway at the International Court of Justice in The Hague, are scheduled to be delivered tomorrow around 4 in the afternoon Bangladesh time. Speculations abound about the verdict and professor John Packer said it would be interesting to see whether the court, whatever it may determine, actually refers to the Rohingya by name. After all, the court case itself was a dispute between two states, Gambia and Myanmar, and the Rohingya formally have no standing and no voice in the case. But it is obviously about them and for them it is important because it signals a recognition and a potential source of some justice. They have lived without justice for decades.
“If the case is decided in a positive way, they will be jubilant,” said John Packer, “but if it is decided in a way that is not very satisfactory, I am concerned about their reaction, their loss of hope.”
John Packer will be visiting the Rohingya camps on Thursday to speak to the people there and see the developments first hand as well as the reaction of the Rohingyas and persons concerned.
John Packer went on to say that many governments are sitting and waiting to get a sense of which way the court is leaning. “It is not just about the provisional measures, although Myanmar asked that the case be dismissed as an invalid claim. I cannot believe the court will dismiss it. The decision on the provisional measures will give us a sense of the leaning of the court to the overall case.”
“For example,” he elaborated, “if they are very strong, it means they feel confident that there are very serious and substantial issues. If they do not order any measures or very light measures, then it will indicate that they are not very persuaded by the case on its face, or that they are very divided internally in the court. It will be interesting to know if the decision is pursuant to a vote or if it is a consensus decision.”
“There are a lot of things this decision will indicate. I believe that a number of countries, if the decision is strong, will only then be emboldened to join. I feel it is sad that governments will wait to hedge their bet to be comfortable with the court instead of simply exercising their own judgement about what is the legitimacy of the case itself and their own interests. The Gambia has arguably taken substantial steps with virtually no connection with the case other than a general public interest.”
Speculating about the consequences of the verdict on provisional measures, John Packer said, “If the verdict is not very robust or courageous, I am very afraid to say that I fear many states will be dissuaded from taking any action. That is not good because The Gambia is itself a small and weak state. Its position, even as an applicant, is limited because it may not pursue reparations for damages because it has not suffered damages and so it is precluded from making such claims. That is a problem which I regret would dissuade states, though states are needed to come on board and strengthen the case and to increase the chances of success.”