LNG imports disrupted, electricity and energy at risk

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has repeatedly targeted energy infrastructure, disrupting global energy supplies and driving prices higher. For import-dependent countries, this raises the prospect of a severe crisis. In Bangladesh, over 70 per cent of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports originate from Qatar, where production could remain halted for an extended period. This threatens the country’s gas supply, and by extension, its electricity and broader energy sector.

Energy sector experts emphasise that natural gas is a primary fuel source for electricity generation, industry, and household consumption. Approximately 35 per cent of Bangladesh’s gas demand is met by imported LNG. Any reduction in imports would decrease supply across all sectors, hinder production in export-oriented industries. The situation may potentially exacerbate power outages during the forthcoming summer due to reduced electricity generation.

According to the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, daily gas demand stands at 3.8 billion cubic feet, of which 2.65 to 2.7 billion cubic feet is currently supplied. LNG accounts for 900–950 million cubic feet.

However, since the outbreak of the conflict, LNG supply has been reduced to 850 million cubic feet. During the current 2025–26 fiscal year, an Iranian attack damaged 17 per cent of Qatar’s LNG export capacity. Restoration and repair of the facility could take three to five years, as confirmed by Qatar Energy CEO Saad Al-Kaabi in an interview with Reuters last Thursday.

Bangladesh plans to import 115 LNG cargoes this year, of which 56 are under long-term contracts, including 40 supplied by Qatar. Oman also provides LNG to Bangladesh, purchased from Qatar. In addition, 59 cargoes are to be sourced from the spot market.

Companies from Singapore, the United States, and several other countries regularly supply LNG, with Qatar remaining a major source. Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex is the world’s largest LNG production facility, responsible for nearly 20 per cent of global LNG output. It plays a pivotal role in meeting energy demand in Asia and Europe.

The conflict has also disrupted the Strait of Hormuz supply route, and production at Ras Laffan has been halted due to Iranian attacks, creating further uncertainty in LNG availability.

CNN reports that, in protest against Israeli attacks on Iranian oil fields, Iranian missiles struck Ras Laffan Industrial City last Thursday, causing widespread damage. Nearly all of Qatar’s natural gas is processed and exported from Ras Laffan. The facility’s management, under state-owned Qatar Energy, suspended LNG and related production earlier this month. Owing to the recent missile strike and extensive damage, it may take a considerable period before operations return to normal.

Meanwhile, wholesale LNG prices in Europe have reached their highest level in over three years.

Under the guidance of the Bangladesh Oil, Gas, and Mineral Resources Corporation (Petrobangla), the state-owned company Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Company Limited (RPGCL) imports liquefied natural gas (LNG). According to Petrobangla sources, prior to the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, the price per unit of LNG was US$10. It has now surged to $25, with further increases likely. Rising prices have led to the suspension of LNG supplies under some long-term contracts.

To maintain supply for April, five LNG cargoes have already been ordered, with prices ranging from $20.9 to $28.28 per unit. RPGCL recently invited tenders for the procurement of an additional cargo. For May, authorities are actively seeking alternative sources to secure supplies.

Petrobangla officials note that there are no signs of the conflict ending soon. Even if hostilities cease, it will take time for production to resume, and prices are expected to continue rising. Procuring LNG at elevated prices poses economic challenges, particularly given the need for government subsidies. Importing LNG from Australia or the United States would further increase costs.

Speaking to Prothom Alo on Friday, Petrobangla Chairman Md. Erfanul Haque explained that even long-term contracts, which generally offer lower prices, may face supply interruptions in the current conflict. Procuring additional LNG from the spot market could also create logistical pressures. Therefore, energy conservation is necessary.

Stating that Petrobangla will take measures based on government directives, he said efforts were underway to explore LNG imports from Central Asian countries as well.

Earlier, in 2022, the Russia–Ukraine war caused major volatility in global energy markets, sending LNG prices beyond reach. Prices per unit exceeded $60. Although Bangladesh managed to purchase LNG at $36, it could not sustain further procurement. From July of that year, spot market LNG imports were suspended for seven consecutive months, triggering a domestic gas shortage and causing widespread load-shedding due to reduced electricity generation.

Bangladesh is almost entirely dependent on imports for its fuel oil needs. All of its crude oil imports come from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). At the onset of the Middle East conflict, Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery, the Aramco plant, was attacked, effectively halting crude oil imports. Current domestic reserves are sufficient to sustain production only until mid-April.

The majority of the country’s fuel oil requirements are met through imports of refined products, including diesel, octane, furnace oil, and jet fuel.

According to Al Jazeera, crude oil prices have surged dramatically, with the global benchmark Brent crude reaching $115 per barrel, a steep rise from approximately $65 per barrel before the conflict began. Diesel prices have exceeded $140 per barrel. Around 65 per cent of the fuel oil consumed domestically is diesel, the bulk of which is imported.

Refined fuel is sourced from Singapore, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, the UAE, Kuwait, Thailand, Oman, and India, with most diesel exports arriving via crude imported from the Middle East. Any disruption in these imports could reduce diesel availability, prompting authorities to seek alternative suppliers.

The Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC), a state-owned entity, handles fuel oil imports, averaging 15 cargoes per month. Since the outbreak of the conflict, deliveries have been irregular, with shipment schedules delayed.

Four additional diesel cargoes are due this month, while India continues to supply diesel via pipeline. Procedures have been initiated to import 300,000 tonnes of diesel from alternative sources, mitigating immediate concerns. Nonetheless, prolonged conflict could threaten supply continuity.

Petrol is produced entirely domestically, while 50 per cent of octane requirements are imported. Current octane reserves are limited, with no shipments scheduled for this month. One cargo, carrying 25,000 tonnes of octane, is expected in the first week of next month. Supplies of petrol and octane from private domestic refineries are already reduced compared to previous levels. Jet fuel imports, necessary for aviation, are also being disrupted.

M Tamim, former Special Assistant on Energy to the Caretaker Government’s Chief Adviser, told Prothom Alo that Singapore is a major source of refined fuel. The country imports crude primarily from the Middle East. Consequently, supply disruptions are likely. LNG availability may also be affected.

He advised prudent consumption and conservation measures, including the possibility of reducing office hours and implementing selective power outage if required.