Bangladesh to see 'normal' life in July: Experts
The spread of coronavirus infection in Bangladesh may come under control, taking life back to normal again, by the first part of July, predicted experts.
The ‘new normal’ life is likely come by then if people of the country fully follow the rules of health and safety, they warned.
A team of eight public health experts presented this forecast timeline on Saturday at the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS).
DGHS director general (DG) Abul Kalam Azad told Prothom Alo on Monday, “We’ve received some hopeful predictions from the experts. But, this is just an assumption.”
“The experts have been following the coronavirus situation in Bangladesh all through. They could change their predictions, analysing the current data,” he added.
Professor Shah Monir Hossain, a member of the expert team and former DG of DGHS said to Prothom Alo, “In our analysis, the situation will improve by the end of June.”
“However, like the World Health Organization (WHO), we want to say that it is not yet the time to predict when the virus will abet completely,” he added.
Other than professor Shah Monir, the team included another former DG of DGHS, a senior researcher of icddr,b (International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh), the vice chancellor of a private university, and a former chief of a foreign agency that works with public health.
Another public health expert who is not a member of the team told Prothom Alo that this kind of projection is normally prepared following arithmetic models and so it requires basic scientific information.
Some 10 days ago, these experts projected that coronavirus cases in Bangladesh could surge between 48,000 and 100,000 by 31 May. The projection was made based on the characteristics of coronavirus, nature of the virus’ spread in different countries, rate of death and infection in several countries, demographics, weather, and steps of the government to contain the spread of COVID-19.
A member of the expert team told Prothom Alo that they did not have the scientific information required for this kind of projection. For example, at least 10,000 samples should have been tested every day for a densely-populated country like Bangladesh, he added.
Timeline
The experts cautioned the government, highlighting four phases.
The number of patients is likely to increase until 16, 17 and 18 May and this may be called the ‘peak’. This ‘peak’ may continue till Eid-ul-Fitr.
The spread of the virus may fall after Eid and can continue till 10, 11 and 12 June. From then, the number of patients can significantly fall. On 25 June, it can come to zero.
According to the projection, the outbreak of the virus may continue till the last week of June and people can resume their ‘normal’ lives at the beginning of June.
Not a piece of cake
The experts said the implementation of the projection is not a piece of cake. For this, people must develop three habits – wearing masks, hand washing and ensuring physical distance.
The DGHS should identify COVID-19 suspects and isolate them to ensure their treatment. The history of the infected people and their close contacts must also be addressed.
The experts also said, if any district has 100 patients, it has to be locked down while if any area or village has 10 infected people, it also has to be locked down.
A member of the expert team told Prothom Alo that the outbreak of coronavirus would not decrease automatically and concerted efforts were required to achieve that.
DGHS DG Abul Kalam Azad said, “We have every kind of preparation. The government is ready even for the worst situation.”
The outbreak of the virus could be controlled but it is difficult to eliminate it and so life cannot go back to normal like before. This is why experts are calling the ‘new normal’.
*The report, originally published in Prothom Alo print edition, has been rewritten in English by Imam Hossain.