When is Tarique Rahman returning to Bangladesh?

Speculation has been growing in political circles that BNP’s acting chairperson, Tarique Rahman, is returning to Bangladesh soon. The BNP leaders could not provide any specific timing on his return, but said they are preparing for his homecoming which is expected to happen soon.

According to a senior BNP source, Tarique Rahman is likely to return home by the end of August, though it is not final yet. Different media outlets reported that preparations are being made over his security, residence, and political office in Dhaka, but these activities are not yet visible.

Speaking to Prothom Alo, several top BNP leaders said they are prepared to give the party’s second-in-command a massive public reception. However, his return is yet to be finalised. Here, multiple factors are being considered, including the upcoming national election schedule, the political climate, and his personal security. The party is weighing when his return would have the greatest political impact – for both the BNP and Tarique Rahman personally.

There has been much discussion within the party that he may return in July or August. The BNP chalked out a 36-day programme to mark the anniversary of the July uprising. They are planning a large rally in Dhaka to celebrate the Sheikh Hasina regime’s fall. There is a perception that Tarique Rahman may appear in the rally in-person. However, senior party officials could not confirm it.

It was learned through conversations with BNP leaders that they want to make the acting chairperson’s return a historic event, with large gatherings at the airport as well as in the city. The ongoing monsoon season has added uncertainty, as bad weather during his return could disrupt the grand public gathering the party hopes to stage.

Some party insiders mentioned another potential window for his return – either just before or right after the national election schedule is announced. The idea is that his presence could spark momentum for the BNP and help secure better results in the election.

Another idea is that his return might be inevitable to create pressure on the government, if any uncertainty emerges over holding the election in February next year. So far, no such critical situation has emerged. If all goes as planned, the election schedule could be announced by the end of December or early January.

Given this complex backdrop, BNP leadership continues to deliberate on the perfect timing for Tarique Rahman’s return. Political analyst and writer Mohiuddin Ahmed believes Tarique Rahman’s homecoming will likely be part of an electoral showdown. He is probably preparing to return in that context.

Upon his return to Bangladesh, Tarique is likely to reside at 196 Gulshan Avenue. The house was originally allotted to his mother, former prime minister Khaleda Zia, after the assassination of president Ziaur Rahman in 1981. The house was rented to British American Tobacco for several years. The company vacated the property earlier this year, and renovation work is currently underway. Recently, the interim government handed over documents of the residence to Khaleda Zia.

Tarique Rahman was arrested on 7 March, 2007, during the caretaker government. He was granted bail on 3 September 2008 and left for London with his family on 11 September. With political asylum, he has been living in the UK for nearly 17 years. After Khaleda Zia was jailed on 8 February, 2018, he was made acting chairperson of the party.

On 5 August, 2024, the student-people mass uprising ousted the Awami League regime. Later, Tarique was acquitted in nearly all cases against him. Home affairs adviser Lt Gen (retd) Md Jahangir Alam Chowdhury has confirmed that there are no legal barriers to his return.

When asked about the timeline, BNP leaders simply say “Soon.” On 10 June, BNP secretary general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir told journalists at the Gulshan office, “Mr Tarique will surely return – of course, he will.” Asked when, he replied, “Very soon,” without giving a date.

At a meet the press programme at the Dhaka Reporters’ Unity on 26 June, BNP joint secretary general Shahid Uddin Chowdhury Annie also said preparations are being made not just within the party but at the national level for the return of their acting chairperson.

During the Awami League’s rule, a slogan became popular among BNP activists and leaders, which translates as Tarique Rahman will return to Bangladesh as a hero. Referring to the slogan, a BNP insider said his return may happen in one of two ways – as a triumphant, red-carpet return, either after winning the election or forming the government, or as a strategic move to ramp up political pressure if the election process stalls.