Tight race ahead: 4-organisation survey shows BNP–Jamaat contest heating up

A survey conducted by four organisations indicates the possibility of a closely fought contest between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami in the forthcoming 13th national parliamentary election.

According to the survey, over 34 per cent of voters intend to vote for the BNP, while over 33 per cent intend to vote for Jamaat.

Ahead of the 13th parliamentary election scheduled to be held on 12 February, the survey was jointly conducted by Projection BD, the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD), the Jagoron Foundation and Narrative.

The findings of the survey, titled “Pre-election pulse: In-depth analysis of the Bangladeshi electorate”, were unveiled at a press conference held at the National Press Club in the capital on Monday.

The survey results show that 34.7 per cent of voters intend to vote for the BNP, while 33.6 per cent plan to vote for Jamaat-e-Islami.

The National Citizen Party (NCP) has the support of 7.1 per cent of voters, while 3.1 per cent intend to vote for Islami Andolan Bangladesh.

A further 4.5 per cent of voters prefer other parties. Meanwhile, 17 per cent of voters remain undecided about whom they will vote for.

Presenting the findings, IILD executive director Shafiul Alam Shahin stated that, statistically, the data suggests the likelihood of a very close contest between the BNP and Jamaat.

The survey also explored the reasons behind voters’ party preferences. According to the report, 72.1 per cent of respondents who support the BNP cited the party’s experience and capacity to govern the state.

Those intending to vote for Jamaat highlighted the party’s integrity and promise of change. Among Jamaat supporters, 44.87 per cent cited lower levels of corruption, while 40.7 per cent referred to honesty as their main reasons.

Among NCP supporters, 36.77 per cent said their support was influenced by the party’s role in the “July Revolution”.

Of the 17 per cent of voters who remain undecided, 30.17 per cent stated that they do not trust any political party, while 38.6 per cent did not express any opinion.

Shafiul Alam noted that these undecided voters could ultimately emerge as ‘game changers’ in determining the election outcome.

The survey was conducted between 21 November and 20 December last year and collected opinions from 22,174 voters across 295 parliamentary constituencies in all 64 districts of Bangladesh.

It was reported that a stratified sampling design was used to ensure geographical representation, as well as a balance between urban and rural areas and demographic groups.

Those present at the press conference marking the release of the survey findings included professor Mushtaq Husain Khan of the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London; Major General (retd) Amsa Amin, chairman of the Centre for Security and Development Studies; AKM Waresul Karim, dean of the School of Business at North South University; Fahim Mashroor, chief executive Officer of Bdjobs; Shibbir Ahmed, associate professor at North South University and Omar Nasif Abdullah, senior lecturer at North South University.