Battle to elect a new ‘leader’ in Sheikh Hasina’s stronghold

Saturday, 12:00 pm. Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s mausoleum in Tungipara, Gopalganj. An almost eerie silence prevails. Buses and vehicles no longer arrive in large numbers. Yet during the Awami League’s rule, crowds gathered here throughout the year.

All gates of the mausoleum complex have remained closed since 5 August 2024. police are stationed both inside and outside. A few local residents were chatting at a tea stall near Gate no. 3. When asked about the election, little interest was seen among them.

One person said he would not go to vote. From a conversation with another, it appeared that many members of his family hold positions in the local Awami League. He said some people would go to vote, but turnout would be very low.

However, interest in voting appeared somewhat higher in Gopalganj district town and other upazilas of the district. Rival candidates’ banners and posters are visible across neighbourhoods.

Campaign announcements were also heard over loudspeakers. From morning until late at night, many candidates are spending busy hours campaining. Candidates from BNP, Jamaat, independents and other parties are attending courtyard meetings, rallies and religious programmes.

Efforts are also under way to attract voters through social media. Local residents said voter turnout would be relatively higher in Gopalganj town and other upazilas, excluding Tungipara and Kotalipara.

Gopalganj is known as the stronghold of the Awami League. The district has three parliamentary constituencies. Since 1991, no one outside the Awami League has been able to establish a serious challenge in these constituencies.

This time, as in the rest of the country, the Awami League is absent from the electoral campaigns in this stronghold. The party’s activities are banned, and its leaders are either in prison or in hiding. Sheikh Hasina, Sheikh Selim and Faruk Khan, who have repeatedly served as members of parliament and as prime minister or ministers, are not contesting. As a result, BNP candidates are the most active in the electoral campaigns. Independent candidates and those from the 11-party alliance led by Jamaat are also trying to keep pace.

Azizur Rahman, a voter in Ulpur union of Gopalganj–2 (covering the Sadar and part of Kashiani), said that the absence of Sheikh Hasina, Sheikh Selim and Faruk Khan in Gopalganj elections is a new experience. There is some interest among people about who is contesting in place of these Awami League leaders.

However, voter turnout in Gopalganj is unlikely to exceed 30 to 40 per cent. Previously, Awami League leaders would win with hundreds of thousands of votes. This time, a new ‘king’ may be elected with far fewer votes.

Conversations with voters across the three constituencies suggest that there could be greater support for ‘no’ in the public vote in this district.

Local politicians and voters said that among other districts in the region, the Awami League has long been strong in Faridpur, Madaripur and Shariatpur. As a result, the absence of the party has some impact. Voters of the party who do turn up at polling stations will play a crucial role in determining the outcome.

The absence of the Awami League in the elections is one reason for the lack of enthusiasm among voters. However, after visiting different upazilas in the district, it appears that another reason is the fear of cases and arrests.

Five days after the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government, Awami League leaders, activists and supporters staged a demonstration and drill with homemade weapons at Gopinathpur bus stand in Gopalganj sadar, blocking the Dhaka-Khulna highway. On that day, army personnel were attacked, leaving nine people injured, including four army officers. Weapons were also seized.

In July last year, the local Awami League attacked the National Citizen Party’s march to Gopalganj. The incident led to all-day clashes in which five people were killed.

It is reported that after Sheikh Hasina’s fall, 15 cases have been filed in Gopalganj district over killings and other allegations. These cases name 1,252 people, with 14,960 others listed as unknown accused.

Almost all the accused are leaders and activists of the Awami League and its affiliated organisations. Some, for the sake of future security, are participating in campaigning at the field level for BNP and other parties.

A local resident of Tungipara said that his wife is involved in Awami League politics. Seven cases have been filed against her. After spending eight months in prison, she was recently released. His family members are keeping a low profile.

Gopalganj–1 constituency covers Muksudpur and part of Kashiani. Since 1996, Faruk Khan of the Awami League was elected as member of parliament six consecutive times. He is currently in prison.

This time, BNP candidate Selimuzzaman Mollah has launched an extensive campaign to win the seat. He is the co-organising secretary of the central BNP and a former student leader. He was also the BNP candidate in the 2008 election.

In past elections, no one could establish a serious challenge against the Awami League here. However, Selimuzzaman has been active in the area since the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government. After the allocation of symbols, he has been visiting villages, schools, colleges, madrasas and marketplaces.

There are nine candidates contesting in this constituency. Apart from Selimuzzaman, the most active at the field level is Muhammad Abdul Hamid Mollah of Jamaat.

The party’s organisational base in Gopalganj has traditionally been weak, but it has strengthened after the fall of the Awami League. They hold some votes as part of the 11-party electoral alliance.

Two other prominent candidates are Md Kabir Mia of the Gono Odhikar Parishad and independent candidate Ashraful Alam. Both are currently in prison.

Kabir Mia is a former chairman of Muksudpur upazila parishad. Although involved in Awami League politics, he was sidelined due to conflicts with Faruk Khan. In the 2024 national parliamentary election, he ran as an independent against Faruk Khan, receiving over 100,000 votes but losing by a margin of 12,000. Kabir Mia has his own support base, and if they turn out at polling stations, he could create a surprise in this election.

However, locals noted that although Kabir Mia ran as an independent in the previous election, he is now a candidate of the Gono Odhikar Parishad. As a result, he may not gain the same sympathy or the split votes from the Awami League as before.

Independent candidate Ashraful Alam’s father was a former president and chairman of Muksudpur upazila BNP. Ashraful was the last mayor of Muksudpur municipality and maintained friendly relations with former minister Faruk Khan. This time, he has directly contested as an independent without seeking BNP nomination. Locals said he also has a small support group.

Tariqul Islam, a voter of Muksudpur municipality, said that with the Awami League absent, voter turnout may be low. BNP’s campaigning is more visible, but the contest in this constituency is expected to be four-sided.

Sheikh Selim has represented Gopalganj–2 (covering the sadar and part of Kashiani) as an Awami League member of parliament since 1986. Since 1991, none of his rivals in elections have been able to secure more than 10,000 votes. Following the fall of the Awami League, Sheikh Selim has gone into hiding.

This time, 13 candidates are contesting from the constituency. Several parties including the BNP, the 11-party alliance led by Jamaat, and several independents are actively campaigning. Ultimately, the contest is expected to be among BNP, Khelafat Majlis, and multiple independents.

BNP candidate K M Baber is a member of the district BNP convening committee. He is also a central leader of the BNP-aligned Doctors’ Association of Bangladesh (DAB) and was involved in student politics with the student wing of the party. Local voters believe that party votes are likely to go in his favour.

However, two independent candidates pose a challenge to BNP in this constituency. They are M H Khan Monju and Sirajul Islam, both of whom were denied BNP nomination. M H Khan Monju is a former president of Gopalganj district BNP, a former member of parliament from the Jatiya Party, and a former chairman of the district council. Sirajul Islam previously contested the 2008 and 2018 national elections as BNP’s nominated candidate but lost to the Awami League candidate.

After deciding to run as independents, both M H Khan Monju and Sirajul Islam were expelled from the party. However, discussions suggest they could still create difficulties for the BNP candidate.

The 11-party alliance led by Jamaat has nominated Mufti Shuaib Ibrahim of Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis. He is the vice-principal of Islampur Bhawanipur Madrasa and is well known in Gopalganj town through family connections. Votes from Jamaat-e-Islami and other allied parties are expected to support him.

Another independent candidate is Kamruzzaman Bhuiyan, who has been involved in Awami League politics and served as the last chairman of Gopalganj Sadar upazila. He is campaigning to draw votes traditionally aligned with the Awami League.

There are 384,326 registered voters in this constituency, with minority voters making up about 30 per cent.

Local voter Abu Taleb Sheikh said that BNP and the Jamaat-alliance candidate will face a tough contest from the three independent candidates. In addition, minority independent candidate Utpal Biswas could attract votes from northern Gopalganj. As a result, it is difficult to predict who will emerge victorious in this multifaceted contest.

S M Zilani is campaigning strongly in Gopalganj–3, which covers Tungipara and Kotalipara. Since 1986, Awami League president Sheikh Hasina has been elected as member of parliament every time. This is also the birthplace of Bangabandhu.

Voter numbers are under 100,000 in Tungipara and over 200,000 in Kotalipara, most of whom belong to minority communities.

Several people were seen campaigning for BNP candidate S M Zilani at Patgati market near Bangabandhu’s mausoleum at around 11:00 am on Saturday. Although voter interest in the area is low, Zilani is ahead in campaigning. Voters said that among political party candidates, Zilani’s outreach is the most visible.

S M Zilani is the president of the central volunteer organisation. He contested against Sheikh Hasina in the 2008 and 2018 elections and is therefore well known in the area. His home is about two kilometres from Sheikh Hasina’s ancestral house.

Patgati market is close to the well-known Gohardanga Madrasa. Abir Hossain, a first-time voter in the area, said he intends to vote. He plans to discuss with family members the day before and then cast his ballot.

There are eight candidates contesting in this constituency. Apart from the BNP candidate, campaigning has been seen by Gobind Chandra Pramanik, secretary general of the Bangladesh National Hindu Grand Alliance; Abdul Aziz of Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis; independent candidate Habibur Rahman; and Maruf Sheikh of Islami Andolan.

Gobind Chandra Pramanik is from Rajbari district. Locals said he is contesting in Gopalganj in the hope that minority voters will support him.

Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis is focusing on votes centred around Gohardanga Madrasa and Jamaat supporters.

Independent candidate Habibur Rahman was a member of the district BNP convening committee. He did not seek party nomination. His sudden decision to run as an independent has sparked discussion locally, and he has been expelled from the party.

Local voters said S M Zilani is leading in this constituency, but if Gobind Chandra secures minority votes, he could present strong competition.

Rabindra Nath Adhikari, president of Gopalganj district Sujan (Citizens for Good Governance), told Prothom Alo that it is important to see whether the Awami League issues any instructions to its leaders and activists before the vote. Voter turnout in Gopalganj is expected to be low, and the ‘no’ vote may win in the public vote. Apart from that, the BNP candidates are in a favourable position. How the Awami League and minority voters act remains to be seen.