The public support for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is strengthening as the election approaches, according to the latest survey of Innovision Consulting.
The private consulting firm’s ‘People’s Election Pulse Survey (PEPS)’ shows that alongside BNP’s growing support, more than 47 per cent of people now see the party’s chairman, Tarique Rahman, as a potential prime minister.
The third round of PEPS results also shows that some supporters who previously backed Jamaat or the National Citizen Party (NCP) have shifted their support toward BNP. A significant portion of Awami League supporters are also saying they would vote for BNP.
Rubaiyat Sarwar, managing director of Innovision Consulting, presented the survey results at an event at the BDBL building in Karwan Bazar, Dhaka on Friday.
The public opinion survey was conducted with the support of two civic platforms, Bangladesh Research Analysis & Information Network (BRAIN) and Voice for Reform.
The first round of PEPS results was published in March last year, and the second round in September last year. The third round of the survey was conducted via telephone among the citizens who participated in the first and second rounds.
It was announced at today’s event that the survey report was prepared based on 5,147 interviews conducted from 16 to 27 January. Respondents were selected from both rural and urban areas across 64 districts of the country. Opinions were collected on six topics: voter turnout, public opinion on voting, law and order situation, perception of a free and fair election, voting decisions, and party preference.
The survey results show that 47.6 per cent of respondents think Tarique Rahman will be the future prime minister, while 22.5 per cent believe Shafiqur Rahman will assume the role, and 2.7 per cent identified Nahid Islam as the future prime minister of Bangladesh. However, 22.2 per cent of the respondents said they do not know who the future prime minister will be.
The report also said with Tarique Rahman’s return to the country and after Khaleda Zia’s passing, a significant number of undecided voters have leaned toward BNP.
Regarding the likely winner in specific areas, the survey report states that when asked which party’s candidate could win in their area if elections were held tomorrow, 52.9 per cent of respondents mentioned BNP candidates while 23.8 per cent said they were unsure.
Compared to PEPS round 2, the mention of BNP as the likely winner increased by 7.5 per cent in round 3. In the case of Jamaat, this rate increased by 1.1 per cent.
Awami League supporters shifting toward BNP
The Awami League, which was ousted from power in the July uprising, will not be able to participate in the 13th parliamentary elections scheduled to be held on 12 February.
The party’s activities are banned, and its registration with the election commission is suspended. This has raised discussions about where Awami League supporters’ votes might go.
The PEPS report notes that 32.9 per cent of previous Awami League voters are now likely to vote for BNP while 13.2 per cent said they may vote for Jamaat, and 41.3 per cent remain undecided.
The survey also mentions that some voters who previously intended to vote for Jamaat or NCP have shifted their support to BNP. Similarly, undecided voters are now choosing BNP.
The survey finds that BNP is getting more votes than Jamaat from the previously undecided and unrevealed votes. Of the 52.8 per cent votes for BNP, 26.6 per cent has come from previously undecided and unrevealed voters. Of the 31 per cent votes for Jamaat, 14.1 per cent have come from previously undecided and unrevealed voters.
Round 3 shows that some Jamaat supporters did not express their voting preference, indicating more instability in Jamaat’s vote bank compared to BNP. Additionally, due to alliances with Jamaat, some NCP votes have shifted toward BNP.
Regarding the final potential vote share, the survey finds that among the voters who have decided about their party preference, BNP and alliance is likely to get 52.8 per of the votes, Jamaat and alliance are likely to get 31 per cent of the votes. 13.2 did not reveal their preference.
60pc support ‘Yes’ in referendum
Alongside the 13th parliamentary elections, a public referendum on fundamental constitutional amendments as per the July Charter will also be held on 12 February.
The PEPS report states that nearly 60 per cent of respondents expressed support for ‘Yes’ in the referendum, while 22.2 per cent said they did not know about the referendum.
The report also notes that differences in awareness and opinion on the referendum exist among different demographic and political groups.