Opinion poll: 48pc of Awami League voters plan to vote for BNP

More than 90 per cent of voters who took part in a survey said they intend to cast their ballots in the upcoming election, while 8 per cent said they remain undecided or do not plan to vote.

Among voters who previously supported the Awami League, 48.2 per cent said they would vote for the BNP in this election.

These findings emerged from an opinion poll titled 'Uncovering the Public Pulse: Findings from a Nationwide Survey', jointly conducted by the Communication and Research Foundation (CRF) and Bangladesh Election and Public Opinion Studies.

The survey results were presented at a press conference at the National Press Club in the capital on Wednesday.

The findings were shared by CRF strategic coordinator Zakaria Palash, who said the survey was conducted among voters in 180 parliamentary constituencies across all 64 districts of the country. A total of 11,038 voters participated in the poll, which was carried out in two phases between 20 November 2025 and 31 January 2026.

Zakaria Palash said the survey showed that corruption has emerged as the most influential factor in the upcoming national parliamentary election. According to the findings, 67.3 per cent of voters said corruption would be a key consideration in deciding whom to vote for, while 35.9 per cent said religion would be an important factor.

The survey also found that voters would give significant importance to rising commodity prices, development, employment and security when voting.

The press conference stated that 48.2 per cent of voters who previously voted for the Awami League now plan to vote for the BNP.

It was also reported that among former Awami League voters, 29.9 per cent said they would vote for Jamaat, 6.5 per cent for the National Citizen Party, and 13 per cent for other parties, while 2.4 per cent said they had not yet made a decision.

According to the survey results, among voters who will be voting for the first time since 2008, 37.4 per cent said they would vote for Jamaat, 27 per cent for the BNP and 17 per cent for the National Citizen Party, while 18.6 per cent said they remain undecided.

Zakaria Palash said the survey found that voters want to support leaders who care about ordinary people and are capable of providing strong leadership.

He added that respondents indicated a preference for people-friendly candidates over those with personal qualifications alone.

Citing the survey findings, the press conference noted that 33.2 per cent of voters said they would give equal importance to both party and candidate when voting.

Another 30.4 per cent said they would prioritise the party, while 30.2 per cent said they would prioritise the candidate. The remaining 6.1 per cent said they had not yet decided which factor they would consider more important.

Visiting professor of economics at the University of Reading in the UK and professorial fellow at North South University M Niaz Asadullah attended the press conference as a guest.

M Niaz Asadullah said that since the Awami League is not contesting the election, the direction in which its voter base shifts has become an important issue.

He described the high level of voter interest as the most positive aspect of the survey, but said the situation on polling day would be crucial.

He warned that if security and the overall environment are not satisfactory, many of the currently undecided 8 per cent of voters may choose not to go to polling stations, potentially increasing that figure significantly.

M Niaz Asadullah said the election commission and the government would need to play an important role in ensuring a normal situation on polling day. He stressed the need to guarantee security, particularly for women and elderly voters, so that they can go to polling centres without fear.

He added that regardless of the survey results, voter turnout would ultimately depend on the situation on election day, including how secure voters feel and how orderly the voting process is.

CRF vice-president and Shahjalal University of Science and Technology professor Sahabul Haque chaired the press conference.

He said there has been unprecedented enthusiasm among people to vote in this election, more than in any previous election.

Professor Sahabul Haque said there is still anxiety among voters about the election, including concerns over whether the vote will be fair and impartial, whether ballot boxes could be seized and whether violence might occur.

He noted that such concerns are shared by BNP, Jamaat, National Citizen Party supporters and general voters alike.

He also said voters are placing less emphasis on religion than before when deciding how to vote. Instead, he said, people are prioritising corruption issues, particularly whether there are corruption allegations against a candidate or their party.