Risk of prolonged floods looming large

Although the water level may not rise higher, the flood situation may be prolonged this season, say several experts. Earlier, the 1998 floods lasted for 33 days. The floods caused huge loss of life and property across half of the country. Experts say the type of flood that started in the northern part of the country on 27 June is very similar to that of 1998.

The government's Flood Forecast and Warning Centre says the ongoing floodwaters will recede in the next couple of days. The floods are expected to last till 20 to 22 July in seven to eight northern districts of the country.

The country's disaster experts have suggested that food, medicine and other relief supplies be prepared quickly for possible long-term floods. At the same time, the shelters be equipped to deal with the risk of coronavirus infection. Experts also stressed the need to renovate the shelters that have not been used for a long time.

Ainun Nishat, emeritus professor at BRAC University, told Prothom Alo, “We heard many flood control embankments are damaged in many areas including Sirajganj. If the floodwaters rise further in the next three to four days, the embankments could break further and flood many areas identified as flood-prone. We should take quick action to prevent the embankments from further damage.”

1.4 million people stranded and affected

According to the government's Ministry of Relief and Disaster Management, about 350,000 people are currently trapped in floodwater in 14 districts of the country. The floods have damaged homes and crops of about 1.4 million people.

The worst affected districts are Jamalpur, Gaibandha and Sunamganj. Other flood affected districts are Manikganj, Rajbari, Madaripur, Sylhet, Tangail, Bogura, Sirajganj, Lalmonirhat, Kurigram and Nilphamari. The government has so far allocated Tk 17.3 million and 10,600 tonnes of rice as assistance to the flood victims.

Secretary of the Ministry of Relief and Disaster Management. Mohsin told Prothom Alo, "We have made all preparations for the floods. If the floods are prolonged, arrangements have been made so that there is no shortage of relief. '

According to the Meteorological Department, heavy rains are expected in the foothills of Meghalaya, Assam, Tripura and West Bengal in the upper reaches of Bangladesh from Tuesday. Meanwhile, heavy rains have started in the Kosi river basin of India. As a result, most of the upstream rivers will start flowing at once within three days.

However, flood experts say that once the floodwaters recede, residents of char and low-lying areas usually return home quickly from shelters. But the water that is now receding may rise again in a few days. As a result, when they return home, they may become waterlogged again.

Arifuzzaman Bhuiyan, executive engineer of the Flood Forecasting and Warning Center, told Prothom Alo that even if the flood waters recede now, it could rise again in two to three days. As a result, it is better for the waterlogged people to stay where they have taken shelter.

As the flood forecasting and warning center, the water level is rising at 49 out of 101 points in different rivers of the country while going over the danger level in 16 points. In Kurigram, the water of Brahmaputra river is flowing at 51 cm above the maximum danger level.

Flood type this year

The country usually experiences one to three floods a year. Floods that occur in late June or mid-July usually last from one week to 10 days. The floods occur mainly in the haor area of ​​Sylhet and along the Brahmaputra and Teesta basins. Chattogram, four districts on both banks of the Padma, the Atrai basin in the north has been flooded this year. Within a week, the waters of the Atrai River could cross the danger line and spread to wider areas of Naogaon, Joypurhat and Bogura.

There are flood waters only in some low lying areas of Munshiganj in the Ganges-Padma basin. However, in the next three to four days, floods may spread to Shariatpur, Madaripur, Faridpur and Rajbari in this area.

There is a lot of rain upstream in Halda, Sangu and Matamuhuri rivers. In the middle of this month, floods may occur in Chattogram, Bandarban, Khagrachhari and Rangamati districts on both banks of these rivers. Floods may occur on both banks of rivers in the haor areas of Sylhet and Sunamganj within a week.

According to the Institute of Flood and Water Management of Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), the floods in 1998 lasted for 33 days, while the floods of 2004 and 2014 lasted for 16 days. The floods in 1995 and 1996 lasted for 12 days.

Saiful Islam, a professor in BUET's Department of Flood and Water Management, told Prothom Alo, "Floods are becoming more intense than ever in terms of water level and duration. But I don’t see the kind of preparedness and state initiatives for floods that they take during cyclone. We have to include NGOs besides government organisations for flood management.”

*This piece, originally published in Prothom Alo print edition, has been rewritten in English by Farjana Liakat