Ramadan is expected to begin in the third week of February. Although the trading season for Ramadan commodities is approaching, imports of all essential items have not increased at the same pace.
While imports of chickpeas, lentils (masur dal) and sugar are relatively satisfactory in view of Ramadan demand, imports of edible oil and peas remain comparatively low.
To date, imports of dates amount to only about one-third of the estimated Ramadan requirement.
This picture emerges from an analysis of essential commodity import data over the past two and a half months (1 November to 18 January) obtained from the National Board of Revenue (NBR).
In addition to goods already cleared through seaports and land ports during this period, Ramadan-related commodities are also present in the import pipeline.
Importers state that imports of Ramadan commodities are likely to increase further over the next 10 to 15 days, which may significantly ease concerns about supply.
However, if large volumes are imported at the last moment, pressure will increase on transporting goods to factories, processing them, and supplying them to the market.
This is because the national election will be held on 12 February, prior to Ramadan. On that day, vehicular movement will be restricted, and election campaigning will also be ongoing beforehand.
It is extremely important to maintain an uninterrupted supply chain for essential commodities. The government must regularly review whether there is an appropriate balance between demand and supply, taking into account local production, imports, and stock levels.Mustafizur Rahman, honourable fellow of CPD
Any disruption to the supply chain during this period could create a risk of shortages in the market.
When asked, Mustafa Kamal, chairman of Meghna Group of Industries (MGI), a leading importer of consumer goods, told Prothom Alo that there is no risk of a shortage of Ramadan commodities.
However, it is essential to ensure that the transportation of imported goods to factories and the marketing of processed products from factories are not disrupted in any way.
If this can be ensured, the supply of Ramadan commodities in the market will remain stable.
Imports by commodity
The use of edible oil increases significantly during Ramadan compared to normal periods. According to estimates by the Tariff Commission, demand for edible oil during Ramadan stands at approximately 300,000 tonnes.
Over the past two and a half months, imports of the two main edible oils, soybean oil and palm oil, amounted to 438,000 tonnes. Compared with the same period before last Ramadan, imports have declined by 56,000 tonnes.
There is no risk of a shortage of Ramadan commodities. However, it is essential to ensure that the transportation of imported goods to factories and the marketing of processed products from factories are not disrupted in any way.Mustafa Kamal, chairman of Meghna Group of Industries (MGI)
However, in addition to importing crude oil, several companies also produce oil domestically by importing soybean seeds.
While imports of crude soybean and palm oil are slightly lower than during last Ramadan, imports of soybean seeds have increased by 162,000 tonnes. This will yield an additional 25,000 to 30,000 tonnes of soybean oil.
Mohammad Mustafa Haider, director of TK Group of Industries, a leading importer of edible oil, told Prothom Alo that demand for edible oil is still relatively low.
Although imports are somewhat lower, there will be no major shortage during Ramadan, as more oil-carrying vessels are expected to arrive at ports before the start of the month.
Like edible oil, imports of peas have also declined. Over the past two and a half months, 113,000 tonnes of peas were imported, which is 168,000 tonnes less than during the same period last year.
On the other hand, demand for chickpeas during Ramadan is estimated at around 100,000 tonnes. From November to 18 January, 172,000 tonnes of chickpeas were imported in preparation for Ramadan.
Compared with the same period before last Ramadan, imports have increased by nearly 100,000 tonnes. Even after accounting for normal demand, the supply of chickpeas appears to be quite comfortable.
A similar picture is observed in the case of lentils. Over the past two and a half months, 146,000 tonnes of lentils were imported, which is nearly 100,000 tonnes more than during the same period last year.
Demand for sugar during Ramadan is estimated at around 300,000 tonnes. In the nearly three months leading up to Ramadan, sugar imports totalled 500,000 tonnes, representing an increase of 227,000 tonnes compared with last year.