Water scarcity, drought in the North

On a scorching late-monsoon afternoon, I traveled along a narrow local road of Naogaon district in the northern region of Bangladesh and reached Lakshmipur village of Sapahar. Rain is now essential for sowing Aman paddy. The heavy, stifling air seemed to promise rain. But that hope seemed futile.

The mango season had not yet ended. At the entrance of the village, I met Bijiyan Murmu. This Santal woman, around 56 years old, said, “The heat feels unbearable now. Before, we could go to sleep just using hand-held fans. Now we have electric fans, but the heat has not lessened. I think rainfall has also decreased compared to earlier times.”

Once, Lakshmipur and the surrounding areas were rich with paddy cultivation. Bijiyan Murmu also witnessed this farming during her childhood and even helped her family in the fields. But now, in the arid soil of Sapahar, mango trees dominate. In her words: “There is no water under the ground. There is less rainfall, so there is no profit in cultivating paddy. That’s why there are mango orchards everywhere.”

Mango cultivation has revived the fortunes of many households in this area. But for marginalised people like Bijiyan, whose livelihoods depend on rice and vegetables, life has not become easier. Here, the main problem is water.

Across vast stretches of northern Bangladesh, the water table has been receding for a long time. In the dry season, there is a desperate scarcity of potable water and irrigation water, especially in the Barind region. Government data shows that rainfall here is steadily decreasing.

Alongside comes extreme heat. This June, rainfall across the country was about 20 per cent lower than average. In the north, it was even less. Scientists say these changes are caused by increasing global warming.

For people like Bijiyan, such terms are unfamiliar. Yet, she feels “something has gone wrong.” Receding groundwater levels, less rainfall, and rising heat, these three factors are now taking a heavy toll on the people of the north.

Traveling for several days through Sapahar and Niamatpur in Naogaon, Nachol and Gomastapur in Chapainawabganj, and Godagari and Tanore in Rajshahi revealed how this pressure is steadily mounting. Farmers, day labourers, and people from various professions shared their stories of struggling against a changing nature.

Across Bangladesh, various projects are being undertaken to cope with the impacts of climate change. But the northern region of the country known as granary of Bangladesh is still not prepared to withstand this blow, says Professor Chowdhury Sarwar Jahan of the Department of Geology and Mining at Rajshahi University.

He has been researching groundwater levels and the impacts of climate change in this region for decades.  “When it comes to climate change and adaptation, the focus is always on coastal areas. The diversity of the north, its specific vulnerabilities, and the attempts at adaptation here are rarely addressed. The north produces food for the country. If that food supply is hit, the whole nation will suffer,” he said.

Northern Bangladesh, particularly the vast Barind areas of Rajshahi, Chapainawabganj, and Naogaon, is already identified as highly vulnerable due to drought and water scarcity. A 2025 study published in the Global Food Security journal titled “Revisiting the Drought–Food Insecurity Nexus: A Social–Ecological Systems Perspective” warns that if climate pressures continue to rise and water management falters, food security in this region could drop by more than half.

Tilna, Sapahar Sadar, and Shironti—these three unions of Sapahar are severely drought-prone. About ten years ago in Tilna union, water could be found after digging around 30 feet. Installing tube wells was not so difficult then. Now, water is found only at depths of 40 to 50 feet.

I sat by the field talking to farmer Rafiqul Islam of Chandura village, who has been involved in farming for at least 26 years. He said, “Now, when you go 30 feet below, you hit red sand. There is no water there. The soil is dead. The condition happens in the months of Falgun and Chaitra, that’s beyond saying.”

According to him, water scarcity is growing worse in these areas every year. As a result, deep tube wells often become useless.

There are a total of 360 deep tube wells in the upazila. Every year, several of them break down, said Upazila Agriculture Officer Shapla Khatun. “Compared to any other area of the country, farming here costs much more. The main problem is water. Not only farmland, but at least 30 per cent of households also suffer from acute water shortages,” she said.

In 2022, the Bangladesh Water Development Board analysed 40 years of data from 465 shallow groundwater monitoring wells. The study showed that due to extensive usage, groundwater levels are falling in two-thirds of the country during the dry season. On average, groundwater levels have dropped one to three metres across various areas, including the north.

A 2022 study published in the renowned journal Science titled “The Bengal Water Machine: Quantified Freshwater Capture in Bangladesh” presented a picture of groundwater refill. It showed that water levels in nearly every well are falling. Recharge is barely happening. The study covered groundwater levels and recharge patterns from 1970 to 2020.

An analysis of Godagari in Rajshahi revealed that in the 1980s, groundwater levels fell in the dry season but were recharged by 16 to 18 metres during the monsoon. But after 2010, recharge has not exceeded 16 metres.

According to the Agriculture Extension Department in Nachol upazila, there were 250 deep tube wells. Last year, 55 of them were out of operation during the Boro season. Irrigation was not possible, and crop yields that depend on irrigation were affected. Upazila Agriculture Officer Saleh Akram said that at least 35 per cent less Boro rice was produced this year.

The groundwater table is falling in the Barind tract. But Rangpur and Dinajpur are not safe either. In a 120-kilometre stretch of the Teesta basin, water levels are dropping in the dry season, observed water expert Anwar Zahid. His team began this research last dry season.

He said, “A complex problem has emerged in the Teesta and Brahmaputra basins. In the dry season, water levels are dropping, while in the monsoon, heavy rainfall is increasing riverbank erosion.”

In June this year, rainfall across the country was 20 per cent less than average. Asharh, the first month of the Bengali monsoon season, covers half of June. Even then, rainfall was this low. In July, although rainfall was higher than average, the Rangpur division in the north still received 38 millimetres less rain. In Rajshahi, however, July saw 36 per ncent more rain this year. But this is not consistent; rather, in the long term, rainfall in the north has been declining.

A 2018 study published in the Journal of Engineering Science titled “Spatio-Temporal Variation of Pre-Monsoon Rainfall and Rainy Days over Bangladesh” analysed rainfall patterns from 1948 to 2015. It found deficits in rainfall in the western and northwestern regions of the country, while excess rainfall was observed in the northeast. In Rajshahi, located in the northwest, rainfall decreased by 0.5 millimetres annually.

With rainfall decreasing, groundwater recharge is also falling, and surface water bodies are shrinking as well. For instance, the Joboi Beel (wetland) of Sapahar, located eight kilometres from the upazila headquarters, flows through the unions of Shironti, Goala, Aihai, and Patari. Once, this wetland was a major source of irrigation water. Now, especially in the dry season, it no longer holds sufficient water, reducing reliance on it, said Abdus Sobhan, a farmer from Goala. In his words: “As the beel dries up, in the dry season we depend only on tube wells.”

In the 1980s, agriculture was in the peak years of the Green Revolution. At that time, pests were the main enemy of crops. The use of pesticides increased to kill them, which brought results. But it was not only pesticides—expansion of irrigation equipment also played a major role then. Yet these methods were not sustainable. Their side effects became evident soon enough.

In the 1980s, pests such as stem borers, armyworms, and brown grasshoppers were common in the north. But now, farmers in this region must fight against more than 80 different types of pests, according to AKM Monjure Maula, Deputy Director (Horticulture) of the Department of Agricultural Extension in Chapainawabganj. He explained that because rainfall has decreased in northern regions, temperatures are rising day by day. This has also affected agriculture. Higher temperatures have fueled the spread of pests. Of course, this is also linked to the excessive and unnecessary use of pesticides in agriculture.

About 60 per cent of the country’s rice production comes from Boro paddy. In northern regions, especially in the Barind tract, this is the primary crop. Heat begins in March. When average temperatures exceed 35 degrees Celsius at this time, pollination of Boro paddy is severely disrupted. But in the north, temperatures mostly remain above 35 degrees. The inevitable result is sterile grain. To prevent this, rice seedlings must remain submerged in water. This requires irrigation. But in the heated north, groundwater levels are falling. Farmers, in desperation, are then forced to reduce irrigation.

Studies show that in all eight divisions of the country, both maximum and minimum temperatures during the monsoon season have risen. Among them, drought-prone Rajshahi has seen the steepest rise in maximum temperature—0.5 degrees Celsius per decade. Rain-heavy Sylhet has seen the same increase. In Dhaka, Rangpur, and Chattogram divisions, maximum temperatures have risen by 0.3 degrees Celsius per decade. These findings on higher temperatures in the north are presented in the study “Bangladesh’s Changing Climate: Trends and Variations in Weather Observations from 1980 to 2023.” The research was led by Meteorologist Md. Bazlur Rashid of the Meteorological Department and was conducted between 2021 and 2023.

Data for the study came from all centres of the Meteorological Department across the country. Sunlight hours (the length of time the sun shines during the day) have decreased the most in winter. Over the past 40 years, Rangpur division recorded the sharpest decline in sunlight hours, followed by Dhaka, Mymensingh, and Rajshahi.

Farmers in the north are now lost between rising heat and water shortages. In March 2022, police reported that two Santal farmers from Nimghatu village of Godagari upazila in Rajshahi committed suicide after failing to secure irrigation water.

Groundwater conditions for Boro paddy have deteriorated. Over the past couple of years, efforts have begun to limit Boro cultivation. Locally, this has shown some results. According to Upazila Agriculture Officer Saleh Akram, more than 2,000 hectares of Boro cultivation were reduced this year in Nachol. His data shows that last year, 7,510 hectares of land were used for Boro farming, compared to 9,900 hectares the year before. Thus, Boro cultivation has dropped by at least 35 per cent. In its place, cultivation of lentils and maize has increased.

A recent study published in the journal Sustainable Development, led by Sarowar Hossain of the University of Glasgow’s School of Environment and Sustainability, warns that current agricultural practices may temporarily increase food production—but only through excessive use of groundwater. Eventually, water resources will begin to deplete, putting long-term food security at serious risk.

The researchers examined several future scenarios. They found that if temperatures rise between 3.5 and 5.7 degrees Celsius and, at the same time, river flows decrease due to upstream withdrawals or dam construction, food security in northern Bangladesh could decline by nearly 55 per cent.

Even more concerning, the study identified several “tipping points,” such as temperature increases beyond 3.5 degrees, upstream water withdrawals of 30–50 per cent, halving or eliminating agricultural subsidies, rapid population growth, and political instability. Speaking to Prothom Alo, Sarowar Hossain said that if these conditions occur simultaneously, food production would collapse dramatically, leaving people in extreme food scarcity.

The researchers stressed that food security cannot be measured solely by rice and wheat output. Water management, agricultural subsidies, climate change, population, and political stability all interact in a complex relationship. Without understanding this, ensuring sustainable food security will not be possible.

Experts believe that with immediate, integrated planning, a major crisis can still be avoided. Without it, however, northern Bangladesh could face a major humanitarian and economic disaster within a few decades.

According to Sharmind Neelormi, professor of economics at Jahangirnagar University who has long worked on the economic impacts of climate change, discussions about climate change and its effects tend to focus only on the coast or the south. “By promoting alternative crops and expanding social safety net programmes in the north, we thought we had solved the problem of monga (seasonal famine). In reality, adaptation efforts here are minimal,” she said.

A project called Climate Smart Agriculture and Water Management is being implemented in 27 upazilas across the country. Thirteen are in the south, while only seven are in the north—specifically, Biral and Kaharol in Dinajpur, Sadar and Bholahat in Chapainawabganj, Sadar and Debiganj in Panchagarh, and Haripur in Thakurgaon. But many of the most drought-prone and heat-stricken upazilas of the north—such as Sapahar, Nachol, Gomostapur, Shibganj, and Niamatpur—are excluded.

In the seven northern upazilas included, the programme is overseen by agriculturist Rashed Iftekhar, who told Prothom Alo that services such as solar-powered irrigation pumps, seed production centres, and sheds are in place.

The north is not a homogeneous region with a single ecological profile. It has varied landscapes: Rajshahi, Chapainawabganj, Natore, and Naogaon form the red-soil Barind tract; Natore, Sirajganj, Bogura, and Pabna are home to the vast Chalan Beel wetlands; while Dinajpur, Rangpur, and Gaibandha in the far north have distinct natural features of their own. Yet all these areas are plagued by rising temperatures and falling water tables.

Professor Chowdhury Sarwar Jahan pointed out that these ecological differences have not been properly recognised in the government’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP). “Chalan Beel was only included in the most recent NAP of 2023. But northern regions are already feeling the impacts of climate change every day, and there are still no adequate measures to address them,” he said.

An analysis of climate-related projects under Bangladesh’s Delta Plan shows that a total of 80 projects have been adopted: 23 for coastal areas, 15 for isolated areas, 12 for urban regions, 9 for the Barind tract, 8 for the Chittagong Hill Tracts, 7 for river basins, and 6 for haor wetlands. In the 2023–2050 National Adaptation Plan, of 113 initiatives, only two are targeted at drought-prone regions.

Environmental and climate expert Haseeb Muhammad Irfanullah believes that adaptation efforts remain overly focused on the coast. “This is not entirely unreasonable, since after Cyclone Sidr in 2007 the coast has repeatedly been battered by cyclones. But even then, the north is far from a priority. We are not talking about it adequately. The issue is not being framed correctly,” he said.

* The report, originally published in the print edition of Prothom Alo, has been rewritten in English by Farjana Liakat