Even after 17 years of Cyclone Aila, the homestead of Md Zia Gain and his wife, Shamima Begum, in Mothbari village of Koyra upazila, Khulna, remains submerged beneath the waters of the Shakbaria River.
A nearly three-kilometre-long and 250-metre-wide channel, formed by tidal currents after an embankment collapsed, has swallowed their home. They now live on the slope of the embankment of the river.
The house of Minoti Sana, a woman in her 60's from the same village, also once stood in what is now the middle of the river. Her land has remained unrecovered since Cyclone Aila.
Ismail Gazi, Yunus Ali and Ilias Gazi, along with many other villagers, share similar stories. They lost their homesteads and have been living on the slopes of embankments for the past 17 years.
Natural disasters are nothing new in Bangladesh. However, the loss of homes, rising salinity and shortages of safe drinking water in coastal areas continue to transform people's lives over the long term. How to address these challenges is being discussed at the COP31 climate conference in Türkiye.
The United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP) Adaptation Gap Report 2026, published ahead of the conference, highlights the shortfall in climate adaptation finance.
How much funding is needed for adaptation?
According to Bangladesh's third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), the country needs US$8.5 billion annually to implement its adaptation priorities. The same document estimates that the average annual flow of funding for adaptation in the country stands at around US$4 billion.
This leaves an annual shortfall of US$4.5 billion, equivalent to approximately Tk 561.38 billion (Tk 56,138 crore), at an exchange rate of Tk 124.75 per US dollar.
NDC 3.0 states that Bangladesh's annual adaptation financing requirements could rise to between US$12 billion and US$14 billion by 2035.
At the same exchange rate, this would amount to approximately Tk 1,497 billion to Tk 1,746.5 billion (Tk 149,700 crore to Tk 174,650 crore).
Growing needs, insufficient funding
Bangladesh's National Adaptation Plan (NAP) estimates that the country will need a total of US$230 billion to implement 113 initiatives between 2023 and 2050. This amounts to an average of approximately US$8.5 billion annually over 27 years.
The initiatives cover various sectors, including water, agriculture, fisheries and livestock, urban development, disaster management, biodiversity and institutional capacity-building.
UNEP's report draws its estimate of Bangladesh's annual adaptation financing needs of US$12–14 billion by 2035 from the country's third NDC.
The report also states that international public adaptation finance from developed countries to developing nations stood at US$28.7 billion in 2024, an increase of just US$1 billion from the previous year.
The annual adaptation financing needs of developing countries could reach approximately US$305 billion by 2035. This estimate uses 2024 prices and excludes the requirements of the private sector. Including private-sector needs could almost double the total requirement.
At COP30, countries called for adaptation finance to increase at least threefold by 2035. According to UNEP's estimates, even if this target is achieved, it would meet only 20 to 29 per cent of the potential adaptation financing needs of developing countries.
The nature of the financing also matters. In 2024, loans accounted for 55 per cent of international public adaptation finance for developing countries, while grants made up 44 per cent. Nearly half of the loans came on market-based or non-concessional terms.
Experts say Bangladesh needs more grants and low-interest, long-term financing to meet its adaptation costs without placing further pressure on public debt.
Climate finance expert Haseeb Muhammad Irfanullah told Prothom Alo, "Reports published ahead of the COP conferences help us understand changes in the nature and flow of adaptation finance and provide useful insights for negotiations. However, a significant funding gap remains in the flow of finance from developed to developing countries."
Bangladesh still bears the cost of climate damage
According to UNEP's report, Bangladesh allocated at least US$400 million from its revenue budget to the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund between 2010 and the 2017–18 fiscal year. During this period, the authorities approved 512 projects across 18 ministries.
At least 45 per cent of the fund, or more than US$180 million, went towards adaptation activities. However, this amount remains inadequate compared with the country's potential annual requirement of US$12–14 billion.
The Climate Budget Report for the 2026–27 fiscal year estimates climate-related expenditure of Tk 517.46 billion (Tk 51,746 crore) across 25 ministries and divisions. Of this amount, Tk 389.06 billion (Tk 38,906 crore) is allocated to adaptation.
The national budget also proposes an allocation of Tk 1 billion (Tk 100 crore) for the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund.
However, the overall figure for climate-related expenditure does not represent a separate allocation for new adaptation projects. Rather, it reflects climate-related spending identified within the budgets of various ministries and divisions.
Adaptation can reduce climate risks, but it cannot prevent all losses and damage. In the first funding round of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, 119 developing countries applied for US$2.8 billion.
However, the fund initially had only US$342 million, equivalent to around one-eighth of the total demand. Complex application procedures and limited institutional capacity also pose barriers to accessing support.
Farah Anjum, Bangladesh country lead at the Global Strategic Communications Council, who is attending COP31, told Prothom Alo, "Although Bangladesh faces significant climate risks, its contribution to global emissions is low. Yet the country has to bear much of the substantial cost of adaptation from its own resources. Developed countries should go beyond their existing commitments and provide accessible grant-based financing, technology transfer and technical assistance. They must also ensure that allocated funds reach vulnerable communities and effectively reduce climate-related losses and damage."