Trump faces election, legal risks
US president Donald Trump suffered twin setbacks on Tuesday with two ex-advisers facing prison sentences - and one of them saying Trump told him to commit a crime - possibly hurting his Republican Party’s election prospects and widening a criminal probe that has overshadowed his presidency.
Within minutes of each other in separate courts, former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort was found guilty on tax and bank fraud charges, while Trump’s former personal lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to a range of charges.
Cohen also testified that Trump directed him to commit a crime by arranging payments ahead of the 2016 presidential election to silence two women who said they had affairs with Trump.
The president has denied having affairs with the women. His lawyer Rudy Giuliani has said the payments were made to spare Trump and his family embarrassment and were unrelated to the campaign.
The setbacks on Tuesday refocused attention on Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s inquiry into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election, whether Trump’s campaign colluded with Moscow and whether Trump obstructed justice by firing then-FBI Director James Comey, who was formerly in charge of the investigation.
Moscow has said it did not interfere in the 2016 election and Trump has denied collusion, calling Mueller’s probe a “witch hunt.”
Of the two latest developments, Cohen’s plea deal was the more troublesome, said those around Trump.
“We’ve dubbed him Michael ‘the Rat’ Cohen,” said one source close to the president, who asked not to be identified.
“A bad day for the home team,” the source said, adding that the legal woes could depress voter turnout and increase Republicans’ risk of losing their 23-seat majority in the House of Representatives in November’s congressional elections. “This hurts our midterm prospects.”
A Democratic victory in November would limit Trump’s ability to push through legislation and increase the risk of calls for his impeachment.
Cohen’s lawyer, Lanny Davis, said late on Tuesday that his client was “more than happy” to tell Mueller’s legal team everything he knows about Trump.
Democrats pounced on the Cohen and Manafort cases, saying they bolstered their argument that the Trump White House was weighed down by scandal.
“The American people deserve answers regarding the president’s role in these corrupt and criminal actions,” said Democratic Representative Rosa DeLauro.
Rodell Mollineau, a senior Democratic strategist, said the news “adds to a constant drumbeat that will ultimately affect some independent voters” and help Democrats at the polls.
“Manafort being convicted, on its own, might not sway any votes. But given the totality of criminality uncovered ... it will be hard for some Republicans to ignore and even harder to explain.”
Still, there were no immediate calls for Trump’s impeachment and Republican lawmakers did not join the chorus of criticism from Democratic ranks.
LOYAL SUPPORT
The long-term impact of the Cohen and Manafort cases will likely depend on how they affect the turnout of Republican and Democratic voters in November.
While he undoubtedly had a bad day on Tuesday, some analysts said Trump might be able to turn the setbacks to his advantage by reinforcing core supporters’ views that he is under siege, said Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
“In midterm elections, the president’s party tends to be less interested and less motivated to vote. But one thing that will motivate people to get out and vote is if they believe the party is being attacked unfairly,” he said.
At a rally in Charleston, West Virginia, on Tuesday night, a relatively subdued Trump did not mention either the Cohen or Manafort case.
Instead, as supporters cheered him on, he made fun of his opponents’ focus on the Mueller investigation, saying they were desperate to find collusion with Russians.
“Where is the collusion? Where is it?” he said, mimicking his critics.
Josh McGrew, who traveled from Huntington, West Virginia, for the rally, called the investigation a “smear campaign” and said his support for Trump was unshaken.
“This is all about finding out anything they can in somebody’s past,” McGrew said. “They haven’t come up with anything in a year and a half, almost two years.”
Polling by Ipsos/Reuters has shown Trump’s job approval rating holding steady at about 40 percent, even with Mueller’s investigation already bringing guilty pleas by several former Trump advisers.
The Cohen and Manafort cases were unlikely to erode Trump’s support from his political base or the Republican Party establishment, said Larry Sabato, a political analyst and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
“I don’t think there is any change at all,” said Sabato. “That’s the amazing part of it. The Trump base and virtually the entire Republican Party could care less. The polls will bear me out.”
Trump told Cohen to pay off women
Another Reuters report from New York says: US president Donald Trump’s former personal lawyer Michael Cohen testified on Tuesday that Trump had directed him to commit a crime by arranging payments ahead of the 2016 presidential election to silence two women who said they had affairs with Trump.
Cohen’s voice cracked several times as he pleaded guilty to eight criminal charges in federal court in Manhattan, including tax evasion, bank fraud and campaign finance violations. Facing up to five years in prison, the admissions were a dramatic change from Cohen’s earlier boasts that he was Trump’s “fixer” and would “take a bullet” for the president.
Most legal experts say a sitting president cannot be indicted for a crime, but the Constitution allows Congress to impeach and remove a president from office for “high crimes and misdemeanors.”
Cohen’s accusation increases political pressure for Trump ahead of November’s congressional elections where Democrats are trying to regain control of the House of Representatives and Senate.
Cohen told Judge William Pauley III that “in coordination with, and at the direction of, a candidate for federal office” he arranged payments to two women for their silence “for the principal purpose of influencing the election.”
Adult-film star Stormy Daniels was given $130,000 and former Playboy model Karen McDougal was paid $150,000.
Cohen did not name Trump in court, but his lawyer, Lanny Davis, said afterward that he was referring to the president.
“Today he (Cohen) stood up and testified under oath that Donald Trump directed him to commit a crime by making payments to two women for the principal purpose of influencing an election,” Davis said in a statement.
“If those payments were a crime for Michael Cohen, then why wouldn’t they be a crime for Donald Trump?” Davis said.
Trump has denied having affairs with the women. His lawyer Rudy Giuliani has said the payments were made to spare Trump and his family embarrassment and were unrelated to the campaign.
Trump did not mention Cohen at a rally in West Virginia hours later.
Giuliani lashed out at Cohen on Tuesday, calling him a “devious little rat” and saying he had a history of lying.
“I think the president is absolutely in the clear,” Giuliani told Reuters. “The Cohen thing is over.”
Under US election law, campaign contributions, defined as things of value given to a campaign to influence an election, must be disclosed. A payment intended to silence allegations of an affair just before an election could constitute a campaign contribution, which is limited to $2,700 per person per election, some experts said.
Ross Garber, a lawyer who has represented four Republican governors in impeachment proceedings, said Cohen’s statement “dramatically increases the likelihood that, were Democrats to take control of the House in the midterms, they would begin an impeachment investigation.”
“The odds of an investigation have definitely gone up,” Garber said.
MUELLER PROBE LED TO COHEN
The guilty pleas came in the same hour that a federal jury in Alexandria, Virginia, convicted former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort of eight charges of tax and bank fraud and failing to disclose foreign bank accounts.
The Manafort conviction resulted from US Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 US election and possible coordination with the Trump campaign. The charges against Manafort mostly predate his work on Trump’s campaign.
The probe also led to a referral from Mueller about Cohen to federal prosecutors in New York who began their own probe of the longtime Trump lawyer.
Trump has repeatedly denied any collusion and has called the Mueller investigation a “witch hunt.” Russia has denied meddling in the election, although US` intelligence agencies have concluded Moscow interfered. Mueller has also brought indictments against 12 Russian intelligence officers in the hacking of Democratic National Committee emails.
Cohen is scheduled for sentencing on Dec. 12 and his bail was set at $500,000.
Davis told CNN he believed his client had information that would be of interest to the special counsel, but did not give further details.
Mueller’s investigation, which began in May 2017, has resulted in the indictment of more than 30 people and five guilty pleas.