The 2022 Population and Housing Census can be taken as a wake-up call for Bangladesh. It revealed three important trends: we have more young people than ever before, fewer children are being born to replace them, and our society is slowly ageing. Put simply, the window for our much-celebrated “demographic dividend” is closing.
For decades, a young population was the engine of our economy and social change. However, in this article, we argue that this great asset risks becoming “a demographic fragility” if immediate measures are not implemented to tackle the ‘Not in Education, Employment, or Training’ (NEET) crisis. The message is clear: intervening now is not just an option but an existential necessity for the country’s future.
Understanding fragility and the concept of demographic risk
World Vision defines fragility as “the absence of coping mechanisms for countries, communities, and individuals to respond to shocks in their environment, economic well-being, security situation, political economy, or within their society.” OECD has identified six dimensions of fragility: economic, environmental, political, security, societal and human.
Economic fragility refers to the inability to generate or sustain growth. This happens when a country relies too heavily on one sector for economic growth, when debt is excessively high, or when macroeconomic management is poor. Environmental fragility, on the other hand, means extreme vulnerability to climate change, natural disasters, or the unsustainable exploitation of natural resources. Political fragility is characterised by weak legitimacy, poor governance, and a lack of mechanisms to resolve social grievances. Security fragility refers to the absence of security, high levels of crime, and the prevalence of non-state armed groups. Societal fragility, on the other hand, often manifests as high levels of social inequality, lack of social cohesion, and the fragmentation of society along identity lines. Human fragility focuses on risks to well-being, livelihoods, and people’s ability to survive.
In the context of Bangladesh’s youth cohort and for the purposes of this article, demographic fragility can be understood as the risk that a large young population becomes a source of instability rather than growth because the country fails to meet their economic and social aspirations. This happens when young people are idle due to a lack of support, under-skilled or disconnected from opportunities.
The NEET Crisis: A key indicator of demographic fragility
One of the most evident signs of demographic fragility in Bangladesh today is the alarmingly high number of NEET young people. A survey conducted by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) found that the share of NEET youth aged 15 to 24 was 39.88 per cent in 2023. It is nearly twice as much as the global average. In comparison, the NEET population was reported to be 30 per cent in 2017 in a BBS labour force survey. This indicates that the number is rising rapidly. Several reasons have been identified by informed observers behind this worrying trend. These include: inadequate education, lack of necessary job skills, insufficient employment opportunities, early marriage of girls, and poor social conditions.
It is a matter of great concern for the future of Bangladesh that such a large number of young people remain completely excluded from meaningful education and employment. A prolonged lack of access to education can leave young people feeling extremely frustrated and hopeless. They may come to believe that society does not have any space for them, and, as a result, they may distance themselves even further from mainstream communities and civic life. Such sentiments are exacerbated when these young people find themselves without any stable employment or vocational training opportunities.
The mixture of anger, loneliness and financial insecurity can attract young people to politicians who will exploit their discontent for their own selfish interests, to criminals who will offer them tempting illegal activities, or to extremist groups promoting radical ideologies. Needless to say, such dynamics are enough to put at risk not just individuals but also communities, institutions, and the broader development of the country.
Policy priorities to improve demographic fragility
To improve this demographic fragility from undermining Bangladesh’s future, there is an urgent need for all relevant actors, including policy makers, businesses, educators and civil society to act with urgency and create an enabling environment for the youth to participate meaningfully in building a prosperous future for the country. To that end, it is of utmost importance that certain areas are given greater attention.
(a) We must acknowledge that the quality of our education is abysmal and fails to prepare our youth to play a meaningful role in society. The focus should be on quality not quantity.
(b) A national education policy relating to AI must be framed immediately so that the youth learns the responsible usage of AI in their educational journey.
(c) The education system should be re-designed in such a way that students are equipped with problem solving skills along with other soft and technical skills that employers look for.
(d) Demand-driven training programs that can help NEET youth find employment needs to be arranged more frequently.
(e) More job matching platforms connecting youth with available opportunities needs to be created.
(f) Destinations for migrant workers need to be diversified, and dedicated skills-building programs need to be designed to enable them to secure jobs beyond low-wage labour.
(g) Opportunities must be created for young people to be able to voice their concerns and communicate their ideas to the government. When youth feel heard and can take part in decision-making processes, they are less likely to feel alienated or frustrated.
In 2025, more than 5 lakh students failed in the HSC and equivalent examinations. There was a zero-pass rate in 202 educational institutions. Unfortunately, no one talks about these young people. We believe that the current education curriculum is not engaging enough to keep them in the classrooms. We also have to take into account the poor pedagogy. As Bangladesh stands at a crossroads in its history, it is of utmost importance that we address this issue.
*Shahariar Sadat is the executive director of the Centre for Peace and Justice (CPJ), BRAC University.
*Arafat Reza is an analyst at the Centre for Peace and Justice (CPJ), BRAC University.