The mass uprising of 2024 has created the possibility of building a non-discriminatory, inclusive Bangladesh. To what extent is this reflected in the 26-point manifesto announced by Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami?
Waresul Karim: This may sound unconventional; but the reality is that in this year’s manifesto, Jamaat has moved significantly away from its traditional position on the issue of discrimination. I say this because Jamaat, like other Islamist parties, has traditionally not been sensitive to issues of discrimination, including gender equality.
For example, in the manifesto, Jamaat has given special attention to women and the unemployed. It proposes free education for girls from primary level to graduation. It has proposed establishing the world’s largest university by combining three women’s colleges. It has promised free primary healthcare services during maternity. At the same time, it has pledged to ensure free healthcare for senior citizens above the age of 60 and children below the age of five.
To reduce unemployment, it has proposed restructuring the National University framework. It has proposed transforming old university colleges into independent universities. This would make it possible to improve laboratories, libraries, and infrastructure with relatively low investment and thereby enhance the quality of education. This would help reduce educational disparities between Dhaka and other parts of the country.
Jamaat has promised in its manifesto to transform Bangladesh into a 2 trillion-dollar economy by 2040. How realistic is this promise?
Waresul Karim: There is some inconsistency in Jamaat’s calculations here. On the one hand, they are talking about 7 per cent growth, and on the other hand, they have set a target of a 2 trillion-dollar economy by 2040. In reality, with 7 per cent growth, the size of an economy does not double in 10 years. To become four times larger, it takes at least 20–25 years. In Bangladesh’s context, achieving sustained growth of 7–8 per cent is difficult. The reality is that it would be difficult for Bangladesh to reach a 2 trillion-dollar economy before 2050.
Prothom Alo :
The manifesto promises to attract USD 15 billion in FDI by 2030. Given the law and order situation, social and political instability, and uncertainty, we see that even domestic investors are reluctant to invest their money. In Bangladesh’s divided political reality, what guarantee is there that this situation will improve?
Waresul Karim: To me, this seems like an overly ambitious expectation. Investment comes only when certain conditions are created. For investment to come, the first requirement is security. This is not only the security of investors, but also the security of their capital. They want to ensure that their investment does not go down the drain. However, if corporate tax can be reduced to 19 per cent and VAT to 10 per cent, as promised in the manifesto, then large foreign companies may become interested in investing in Bangladesh, because no neighbouring country has such low taxes.
However, to increase investment, it is essential to reduce political polarisation and instability alongside ensuring security. Without ensuring pollution-free air and pollution-free water, there is no hope of attracting investment. Because in such a polluted environment, far from investing, no one would even come to visit.
It should be remembered, however, that Jamaat’s proposals need to be viewed as a package. They are talking about a corruption-free government, where the independence, neutrality, and accountability of institutions would be ensured.
Bangladesh’s tax-to-GDP ratio is the lowest in South Asia. Jamaat has promised to allocate 6 per cent of GDP to education and to triple the current budget for health. The question is, where will so much money come from? Will this mean printing money and increasing the burden of indirect taxes like VAT, as previous governments did?
Waresul Karim: The manifesto promises to reduce taxes while increasing expenditure. No economist would agree with this. However, the core paradox of the manifesto is that it talks about high growth alongside reducing taxes, interest rates, inflation, and corruption. If taxes, interest rates, corruption, and inflation decrease, the cost of doing business will go down.
If the cost of living decreases, people will have surplus money in their hands. As a result, consumption in the country will increase significantly. Even if tax rates are reduced, VAT revenue will increase. Jamaat has said that even if tax rates are reduced, the tax net will be expanded.
Jamaat’s manifesto proposes introducing a ‘Smart Social Security Card’. If implemented, the NID card would be considered as a TIN number. As a result, overnight the number of citizens brought under the tax net would increase significantly. By proposing to raise the tax-free income threshold to Tk 500,000, the manifesto would reduce the burden on low-income people.
In addition, if loopholes in tax evasion can be closed, government revenue could increase substantially. A study by Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) shows that due to weaknesses in tax administration and tax evasion, the government loses approximately Tk 2.26 trillion in revenue every year.
If extensive institutional reforms can be carried out in the revenue sector and meritocracy can be established in recruitment by avoiding nepotism, then this is not impossible.
Questions have been raised that in areas where Jamaat’s institutions operate, people outside the party’s ideological circle are not given space. What guarantee is there that if Jamaat comes to power, people of other political ideologies or of different religions and genders will not face discrimination in employment and business?
Waresul Karim: Your concern is not unfounded, because Jamaat practices ideological politics. Not only Jamaat, but whoever comes to run the government cannot be left to their own will. In recruitment in any institution, it must be made difficult for any political party to place their own people. In my view, to protect freedom, citizens must maintain continuous vigilance.
Prothom Alo :
The manifesto speaks of building a safe, dignified, and participatory state for women. Yet Jamaat did not nominate a single woman candidate in the national election, and the party’s ameer has said that women cannot come into the party leadership. Is the idea of a participatory state merely rhetorical here?
Waresul Karim: There is no scholarly evidence in Islam that women cannot be leaders or that women cannot lead at the organisational level. I believe it was inappropriate for Jamaat’s ameer, as a political leader, to make such a statement. He should have left the matter to Islamic scholars.
Not nominating women was a strategic mistake by Jamaat. If Jamaat had nominated a few of its women members in the election and demonstrated that it is possible to perform any responsibility while remaining within purdah, it would have sent a strong and positive message to society.
The reality is that women in Bangladesh are today conquering the Himalayas and playing cricket and football on the international stage. Jamaat has failed to convey to society the message that women are capable of fulfilling all responsibilities. For this, they may also have to pay a price in the election.
Prothom Alo :
Thank you.
Waresul Karim: Thank you as well.