Md Shahidul Haque, former foreign secretary, now holds the Bangabandhu chair at Delhi University and is also a fellow professor at the South Asian Institute of Policy and Governance at North South University. He recently joined the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) in Delhi as visiting professor. He has been involved in writing and speaking at home and abroad on issues pertaining to the Rohingya crisis, geopolitics, connectivity and similar issues. In an interview with Prothom Alo’s Raheed Ejaz, he talks about Bangladesh’s democracy, the election and foreign interest in the election, geopolitics and more.
Q :
For quite a few years now, international interest in Bangladesh has been growing. Is this interest in the context of geopolitics, economy or anything else?
The geopolitical significance of this region dates quite far back. The emergence of Bangladesh in 1971 changed the geopolitics of the Bay of Bengal. The importance of the Soviet Union increased in the region. While the global circumstances have gradually changed, the geopolitical importance of the Bay of Bengal has never diminished. As a state, Bangladesh’s importance may have been limited, but now focus on Bangladesh has increased manifold due to the Indian Ocean strategy and Bangladesh’s location.
Q :
When you say the Indian Ocean strategy are your referring to the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS)?
I am staking about IPS and the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI). Alongside geopolitics, global attention has riveted on Bangladesh for economic reasons too. Over the past 50 years, Bangladesh has gradually emerged as a geopolitical entity. This was not so in the case of the 1971 Bangladesh. At that time Pakistan held geopolitical significance. With the decrease of Pakistan’s importance in the region, the space created has been taken up by Bangladesh, after India.
Bangladesh has advanced geo-economically too. The country has ample strategic economic potential. Also, although it is a small country, it is located on the brink of the Bay of Bengal. Nothing can be done in this area without taking Bangladesh into cognizance. And with the demarcation of the maritime boundary with India and Myanmar, Bangladesh’s importance has hugely increased.
Q :
Bangladesh is gradually playing a more and more important role. In these circumstances, the US and the rest of the Western world have been voicing their expectations concerning democracy and the election. On the other hand, Russia and China are opposed to the western stance and in recent times have been quite vocal about their stand. Are these opposition stands of the big powers a threat or a challenge to Bangladesh?
I do not see this as a threat, actually, I see it as a prospect. The more a country develops and becomes important, the more challenges it faces. It would be wrong to see this as a threat. It should be viewed as an opportunity. It is only a threat when a country fails to materialise its prospects.
It must be kept in mind that the higher Bangladesh climbs the present global power structure, the more it will have to acquire that degree of competence in the game at that level. If it fails to play the game, then the risks will increase. And if it can play the game, opportunities will multiply. It all depends of what steps Bangladesh takes and how it plays the game.
Q :
How would you explain Russian and Chinese criticism of the western expectations concerning Bangladesh’s election and democracy?
Overall, this must be seen positively. It is only natural that everyone will show interest. If you wonder why everyone is paying attention to us, then you must be far removed from reality. This present interest or curiosity in Bangladesh will increase even further over the next 10 to 15 years. Bangladesh certainly cannot go forward alone. The question may arise, will Bangladesh to with the western end of the polarization or will it go East? Will it lean towards China?
Bangladesh must determine its way forward in pragmatic terms. So far we had been proceeding with all sides. This has been possible. Bangladesh wasn’t in such a position before and so it could go ahead with everyone. But given the global political polarization, taking sides has become inevitable.
Q :
Are you indicating that we must lean towards a certain side out of necessity?
Slightly leaning towards a side is a part of a country’s foreign policy. In 1971, 1973, didn’t Bangladesh lean towards the Soviet Union? Bangladesh had addressed all sides, but Bangladesh did lean more towards a particular side, the Soviet bloc. The principle of moving ahead with friendship towards all cannot just be ideological. It must be pragmatic and in national interests. This is where we must display our acumen. From the Sri Lanka example we can see the pitfalls of rushing ahead in one direction with no thought. You can lean towards one side when you understand you can return from there and restore balance.
All said and done, Bangladesh must stand firmly by the democratic values for which it fought in 1971. If not, it will be like a kite with a torn string, without any direction.
Q :
Speaking of democracy and values what is your views on the US visa policy?
It would be mistaken to view the US visa policy from the perspective of our country. It must be seen from the US perspective. It is not that this is the first time that the US has announced a visa policy against any country. It has taken this stance in its own interests. When the democrats are in power, they take such steps to ensure democracy and good governance.
The question may arise as t whether the objective of the US visa policy is contradictory to Bangladesh’s values. It is not. The 1971 war of liberation was for the sake of democratic values. So we need to view the issue from that perspective. Bangladesh and the US have similar stands about upholding democratic values.
Q :
Is the US wanting to put pressure on Bangladesh by declaring its new visa policy?
The US has an idea that Bangladesh’s democracy has become rather lax. It may be committed to upholding democracy, but the procedural elements in implementing this have become lax. They want the democratic process in Bangladesh to be strengthened as in other countries. As the promoter of democracy the world over, it is placing importance on free, fair and peaceful elections in Bangladesh.
Q :
You say that the US is putting pressure on Bangladesh as part of its global initiative to strengthen the democratic process. Does this have any link with geopolitics?
It certainly has. In global relations, no actions are neutral at the end of the day. A state will definitely have its geopolitical strategy. That is only normal. Every country has its strengths and weaknesses in this regard. Geopolitics is a part of any state’s strategy.
Q :
Speaking of geopolitics, the context of our neighbor India arises. We cannot deny the influence of India on our politics and elections.
Like other countries, India too has its geostrategic objectives. It has certain measures as an emerging power. The question is how we view these measures. No one can naturally tell Bangladesh, don’t go along with China. So Bangladesh must take time and circumstances into consideration as it proceeds ahead. The time hasn’t come for Bangladesh to take sides outright.
Q :
India has supported Awami League in the 2014 and 2018 elections. Will they have the same stand in the coming election?
They certainly will. Whether it is in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan or Bangladesh, India wants stability in South Asia as a whole. There is no debate over that. India’s relations with Bangladesh are special and steadfast. India is an emerging power and many matters of Bangladesh are linked to just to the Bay of Bengal, but to India too.
Q :
But I was asking about India’s support for Awami League in the election.
I am not referring to Awami League. Delhi will have support for the party it sees as on its side. The outwards expression of this depends on the circumstances. Various longstanding issues and interests of Bangladesh are linked to India. That means India’s interest in Bangladesh will remain intact. Bangladesh also has a lot of similarity with India and the US when it comes to values and national interests, alongside presence in the Bay of Bengal.
Q :
What similarity is there between Bangladesh’s values and that of India the US?
All three countries fought for their freedom. There are similar values in the constitutions of the three countries. All three want a democratic and free society. They want a free media. This is similarly in philosophy and values. This is not the same in the other blocs. And when it comes to outreach, the western countries including the US are the major destinations of our experts. Where does our technology come from? Where does Bangladesh want to go for growth? That is the West, including the US. India has a link to this relationship we have with the West. So there are durable ties between the three countries.
Q :
Certain political circles maintain that if the US applies excessive pressure, Bangladesh will turn to China. Is this prudent, considering the partnership of India and the US?
An important aspect of foreign policy is to consider the situation holistically and then react. No matter how big a storm may brew, you must remain calm. You must remain cautious in your use of words. You will not suddenly swerve away from your relationships. Everyone must be alert about these matters. At present, there is a visible lacking in Bangladesh about coordinating these issues.
Q :
US undersecretary of state Uzra Zeya placed importance on politics during her Dhaka visit. How do you evaluate this visit?
The US has always let Bangladesh knows its stand concerning the elections. This is a part of their strategy. They came to Bangladesh and directly informed Bangladesh of their expectations. It looks like Bangladesh also made many commitments. They will them assess how far Bangladesh fulfills these commitments. If need be, they may make more commitments. As in politics, there is no last word in diplomacy either.
Q :
Can you clarify what you mean by ‘no last word’?
The US has said what they want, what they think is the best. They are stressing on free, fair and peaceful elections. The matter of ‘peaceful’ hadn’t been there before. That means they are stressing not just on Bangladesh, but stability in the region.
Q :
Are there any indications in the statements and initiatives of the US and the European Union that may seen that the resolution to the election lies in their hands?
Bangladesh has ample potential in international politics and economy. That is why the West has taken up such initiatives, to ensure that Bangladesh remains in their influence. They want Bangladesh to resolve its own problems and are giving them that chance too. They want to sort out these issues with us through friendship. But that does not mean resolution to the elections issues has gone into their hands.
Q :
Thank you
Thank you too