The results of the past three elections during the Awami League's tenure did not leave much room for public curiosity. Even the outcome of the 2008 election could be predicted in advance. From this perspective, the upcoming election is set to be an exception. Various surveys provide some hints regarding the results. However, the perceptions among the general public and different parties regarding this election's outcome are 180 degrees apart. Considering this, we can hope for a spontaneous and competitive election on 12 February.
What will the election on 12 February be like, or what could the possible results be? Naturally, this topic is being discussed just a few days before the election. Another unique aspect of this election is that uncertainty remains among some people even at this late stage. It seems that some will hold onto their doubts until voting concludes at 4:30 PM on 12 February. However, it's also true that certain incidents are occurring or being attempted just before the election, which are sufficient to stoke such suspicions.
The main competitors in the election are the BNP (with some electoral ally parties) and Jamaat, leading an 11-party alliance—both sides are confident about winning or are projecting the notion to the public that they are going to win or form the government. Such claims are driven by both parties’ political stance and psychological strategy. However, how fair and neutral the election will be is brought forth as a condition supporting their claims.
The psychology of voters in the election is a highly important consideration. According to American economist Anthony Downs, sometimes ‘the probability of winning’ matters more to voters than policy or ideological issues. Indecisive voters especially may often express support for a potentially winning party at the last minute. (An Economic Theory of Democracy)
The BNP has ruled the country twice after the 1990s as an elected party. Their public support and power have been proven, although a long time has passed in between. On the other hand, Jamaat's position as a political party like BNP was fourth in vote counts.
However, after the July mass uprising, Jamaat has significantly surged as a political force. In this reality, Jamaat has been more active in embedding the notion among the public that they are the winners. By creating such a perception that victory is almost certain, Jamaat is calling on voters to mentally side with them.
In the context of political movements, we find various social scientists highlighting the importance of confidence. Confident rhetoric boosts activists and supporters. In the electoral field, a narrative like ‘we are winning’ or ‘we are close to victory’ encourages voters to come to the polling station. Control over narrative or rhetoric is a highly effective strategy in the electoral or political arena.
American political analyst Murray Edelman in "The Symbolic Uses of Politics" stated that political activities which garner the most discussion are usually symbolic. Its objective isn’t to provide real benefits to the public. Rather, it's aimed at fostering trust, creating pressure, or evoking emotions among the public. That is, politics often works more through symbols or rhetoric than the actual situation.
Claims like ‘the public will vote for us or elect us’ can be politically effective even if they aren’t backed by data or statistics. Such propaganda helps in creating a psychological reaction among the public. Crafting symbolic realities through various means such as public speeches during election campaigns, strategic activities on social media, and overt or covert mobilisations can establish the notion that they will indeed win in the elections. We are seeing these elements in Bangladesh’s current election campaign.
Political parties aim not only to influence voters through their confident stances but also to send messages to the military-civil bureaucracy, allied political parties, and international political forces and observers. As introduced by political scientist Samuel Huntington, parties aspiring to power often create a ‘concept of strength’ for themselves. Because sometimes the concept of strength translates into real power.
The BNP and Jamaat's 11-party alliance are carrying out their election campaigns according to their respective strategies. Recognised as the largest political party in the country, the BNP was given a boost at the start of the campaign due to Khaleda Zia’s immense popularity, the historic turnout at her funeral, Tarique Rahman’s return to the country after 17 years amid widespread reception, and his restrained stance and image so far. Due to these reasons, BNP and its leaders and workers can be said to be 100 per cent confident about winning the election.
However, regarding the strategies discussed earlier that consider electoral tactics or voter psychology, how much has the BNP actually done or been able to do? As confident as the BNP or its leaders and activists may be about winning as a party, it remains a big question how much they have been able to embed a notion within the public that ‘BNP will win.’ Of course, it might be that the BNP consciously hasn’t adopted such a strategy.
But it is crucial to keep in mind that this is the first time since 2001 that the BNP is contesting a truly competitive election. During this period, the one-eleven crisis happened, the authoritarian rule ended through a bloody mass uprising. Several million new voters have joined. The traditional calculations or confidence of a big party might face questions when it comes to these new voters.
On the other hand, Jamaat must be deemed successful in this regard. Jamaat, once considered the fourth party in Bangladesh's electoral politics, is no longer in that same position. The party has managed to establish in the public mind that it may or will win the election by leading the 11-party alliance this time. Without effective electoral strategy and campaigning, this wouldn’t have been possible. To understand how much benefit Jamaat will gain from this, we have no choice but to wait.
However, the perception that Jamaat will win may actually provide some advantages to the BNP. Undoubtedly, Jamaat has strengthened as a party after the mass uprising. But Jamaat’s compromised stance during Bangladesh's liberation war will never cease to haunt their credibility. Moreover, Jamaat's recent position on women’s issues has angered and worried a part of society. In various aspects, many voters uninterested in voting in this election may head to polling stations fearing a Jamaat victory. Votes that would never land in BNP’s ballot box may contribute to them this time.
Due to operational bans, the Awami League cannot participate in this election. Questions will remain as to whether this election can be termed "participatory." Regardless of the final results, the election, at least, will not be one-sided. There is a perception that either of the main contenders in the election can win, which could make the election "participatory" and spontaneous with significant public participation. However, this depends on the public’s sense of security and the law and order situation. The government and election commission must pass the test of keeping the election environment peaceful and ensuring the election is free and fair.
AKM Zakaria is a deputy editor at Prothom Alo
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* The opinions expressed are the author’s own.
#This article, originally published in Prothom Alo print and online editions, has been rewritten in English by Rabiul Islam