The deep political crises in Pakistan has taken a new turn as the federal government issued a proclamation of emergency and governor’s rule in its restive province Pakhtunkhwa on 11 October. Through the said order, the federal government not only removed the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI)-led provincial government but it has also administratively taken 12 districts of Pakhtunkhwa out of the administrative control of the province and has put them under its own control.
It is important to remember three things about this northwestern province of Pakistan: 1. Pakhtunkhwa has been used as a springboard for launching western wars in Afghanistan through Pakistan since 1980 as the “front-line-state”, and the province has been seriously plagued by terrorism during the last more than three decades. 2. Pakhtunkhwa is extremely significant for the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as the Karakoram Highway that links Pakistan and China passes through the Hazara division of Pakhtunkhwa, and the western route of CPEC passes through the Dera Ismail Khan division of Pakhtunkhwa, linking it to Gwadar Balochistan. 3. Pakhtunkhwa province has been ruled for three consecutive terms since 2013 by Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI), the party of Imran Khan, the former prime minister and the cricket star of Pakistan, who is imprisoned for the last about three years after conviction in the cases of alleged corruption.
In the general election of 2013 Imran Khan’s party won the majority seats in Pakhtunkhwa with the support of the military’s intelligence agencies who wanted to use PTI as a replacement to Pashtun nationalists in the province. In the general election of 2018 Imran’s party won not only the Pakhtunkhwa province, but it was able to win the Punjab province too, leading it to become the ruling party of the country, albeit with the almost naked support of General Qamar Javed Bajwa, the then Chief Of Army Staff.
Actually the generals wanted to get rid of the Muslim League leader Nawaz Sharif who as the prime minister had put the former military dictator General Musharraf on trial before a special tribunal under charges of high treason for abrogating the Constitution. But in 2022 Imran Khan, who was considered to be the darling of the generals, who were using him for pushing back the “old politicians” for a decade, fell out with the generals on the issue of postings, transfers and promotions in the army, and Imran was removed through a vote of no confidence by the opposition parties.
Thus he was not able to promote his close ally General Faiz Hameed to the post of Chief Of Army Staff (COAS) in November 2022, after the retirement of General Qamar Javed Bajwa. In this way, Shahbaz Sharif as the acting prime minister found the opportunity to promote General Asim Munir to the top slot in the Army.
PTI went for a countrywide protest against the arrest of its leader Imran Khan on 9 May 2023. The military accused them of launching attacks on the military’s facilities and monuments, leading to a fierce crackdown on the party cadres and leaders. The general election held on 8 February 2024 was again totally rigged in favour of Muslim League (N).
Although Imran Khan’s party was not allowed to win majority in the key province of the Punjab, it was not stopped from winning elections in Pakhtunkhwa province with a two-third majority because the military regards Pashtun and Baloch nationalists as a threat to the unity of the country. But with this development, PTI turned Pakhtunkhwa as the bastion of the political agitation launched for the release of Imran Khan from prison. Marching on the national capital Islamabad from Peshawar, the provincial capital, with big crowds of people has been the strategy of PTI’s provincial government during the last two and a half years, which has intensified confrontation between the two sides.
However, the picture of political developments would not be complete if one doesn’t note the weakening of the constitutional system and democracy during the last 10 years with the expansion of the military’s de facto control over the state and the government which has led to the dramatic contraction of civilian supremacy.
The military’s control had expanded under the government of Imran Khan ( July 2018-April 2022) as well as under Shahbaz Sharif’s government (acting government before the general elections of 2024 and the “elected government” after that). The generals have been very uncomfortable with the Constitution after the 18th amendment passed by the parliament in 2010 which has strengthened human rights and federal democracy.
What’s very irritating for the generals is the protection in the 18th amendment provided to the bigger financial share of the provinces in dividing the national financial cake. The generals have been publicly criticising the Constitution after the 18th amendment and they haven’t hidden their intentions for rolling back the 18th amendment. Although the political parties are finding it difficult to publicly commit to rolling back the 18th amendment which was unanimously passed by them, both the ruling and the opposition parties in the parliament have voted for the 26th and 27th amendments that have partially rolled back the 18th amendment. Field Marshal Asim Munir’s proposal for smaller provinces is also aimed at curtailing provincial autonomy and strengthening the central control.
But some international factors are also impacting the internal political situation in Pakistan. Field Marshal Asim Munir has gotten closer to the US Presidential Donald Trump by actively involving Pakistan in politics of the Middle East. President Trump has publicly admired Pakistan’s role as a member of the Gaza Executive Board and for playing the role of a mediator for stopping the war between US and Iran. Pakistan has also worked very closely with the US for bringing Taliban into power in Kabul and is now militarily putting pressure on them to “manage” their strategic orientation.
Every military dictator in the past has enjoyed the support of the US-led Western powers and Field Marshal Munir is not an exception. But in a situation where all the peripheries of Pakistan are boiling and there is almost full-fledged violent conflicts in Balochistan and Pakhtunkhwa provinces, balancing of its relationship with the US and China are becoming extremely difficult for Pakistan. It won’t be an easy ride for the generals.
* Afrasiab Khattak is a former Pakistani Senator and analyst of regional affairs