Two weeks ago, I attended a social event where I met a local BNP leader, a committed leader at the upazila level who once contested local elections. I asked him about Jamaat's prospects in the upcoming election.
At one point in our conversation, he laughed and remarked, “Will this election turn out like 1991 again? Everyone was saying that the Awami League was going to win. We thought the same. But later, the BNP won and came to power.” A former student leader associated with the 1990 student movement, he remains confident about the BNP’s ability to return to power.
Even though the BNP leader jokingly brought up the matter, Jamaat's electoral campaign has sparked significant discussion, leading many to entertain similar thoughts. Additionally, surveys released before the election have highlighted Jamaat’s potential success.
These surveys influence public sentiment in various ways, causing excitement for some and concern for others regarding Jamaat's prospects. Some within civil society believe Jamaat has created a hype that doesn't align with the electoral reality. Conversely, those optimistic about Jamaat's politics argue that there is a genuine wave of support for Jamaat among the people, and it’s organic.
The BNP is a major party, and following the overthrow of the Awami League in the 24th mass uprising, there is a general expectation that the BNP will assume power. This is natural given that the BNP has consistently engaged in movements and struggles for democracy in response to the reality of three controversial elections under the Awami League's rule.
Many parties, including the BNP-Jamaat alliance, faced repression during the Awami regime, with incidents of abductions and murders.
However, the established notion in power politics over the past few decades is that the BNP is the alternative to the Awami League. No other party besides these two enjoys widespread grassroots support across the country. Other parties, particularly Jamaat or the Jatiya Party, have influence only in specific regions. So why has the strong belief arisen that Jamaat will come to power despite lacking the foundational grassroots support required to govern nationwide?
In the aftermath of the mass uprising, the rise of right-wing politics in Bangladesh over the past year and a half has garnered significant domestic and international discussion. Jamaat’s student wing, Shibir’s unprecedented success in student union elections across various universities has amplified public interest in Jamaat. Additionally, Jamaat-Shibir's influence among the young and Gen-Z generation has become apparent.
It must be admitted that the BNP failed to maintain organisational discipline at the grassroots level post-uprising. Despite actions taken against several thousand leaders and activists for extortion and terrorism, the party struggled to manage its grassroots. This failure by the BNP has bolstered Jamaat’s electoral campaign. On the other hand, Jamaat's organizational discipline and the dynamic leadership of its current Amir, Dr. Shafiqur Rahman, compared to its older leadership, have generated interest among many people regarding the party.
A significant reason behind this success in the student union elections was the fear that if BNP’s student wing, Chhatra Dal, took control of the campuses, there would be a repetition of the authoritarian and power-abusive behaviour seen with Chhatra League. Jamaat has strategically leveraged this concern in national elections too. The notion that BNP's rise to power would lead to terrorism, extortion, and corruption akin to the Awami League has been emphasised in Jamaat’s electoral campaign.
It must be admitted that the BNP failed to maintain organisational discipline at the grassroots level post-uprising. Despite actions taken against several thousand leaders and activists for extortion and terrorism, the party struggled to manage its grassroots. This failure by the BNP has bolstered Jamaat’s electoral campaign.
On the other hand, Jamaat's organizational discipline and the dynamic leadership of its current Amir, Dr. Shafiqur Rahman, compared to its older leadership, have generated interest among many people regarding the party.
Moreover, Jamaat employs a multifaceted campaign strategy. For instance, extensive door-to-door campaigns by female Jamaat activists have received significant attention. The media has also discussed how Jamaat capitalises on religion in its election strategy, with campaigns suggesting that voting for 'Daripalla' (weighing scale), electoral symbol of Jamaat leads to ''paradise'' or questions what would be answered in the afterlife if one didn’t vote for it. Although accusations regarding these tactics have been directed at some Jamaat candidates, the top leaders deny such claims.
Jamaat’s earlier electoral success meant winning at most 18 seats, in 1991. In the 2001 election, it won 17 seats through seat-sharing as part of the BNP-led four-party alliance. Now, without a major party like the BNP and instead forming a coalition with 10 small parties, how many seats can Jamaat hope to win?
In this regard, I spoke with political analyst and researcher Asif Mohammed Shahan. He said, "Various surveys conducted over the past few weeks indicate that around 30 to 35 per cent of voters support Jamaat. But the big question is, given that our elections are conducted on a ''first past the post'' system, will this percentage allow them to come to power? Even if their vote share slightly increases, will it ensure victory in more than 150 parliamentary constituencies?"
He presented a similar analysis on Facebook regarding the increase in voter support for Jamaat and election forecasts.
A few days ago, during a motorcycle ride, I discussed this with the driver, who was around fifty years old and from Bagerhat. He mentioned that all four seats in Bagerhat would go to 'Daripalla'. I wanted to understand why Jamaat would win all constituencies in one district.
He first mentioned the promotional strategy of 'Daripalla'— "having seen all other parties, we now want to try 'Daripalla'. This desire for change has spread among many ordinary people. Many believe it's the success of Jamaat’s on-the-ground campaign strategies. It's clear that beyond Jamaat’s loyal supporter base, a section of the general populace is becoming interested in Jamaat.
Interestingly, the gentleman never mentioned Jamaat's name but referred to it as 'Daripalla'. Jamaat has managed to embed the symbol’s name more prominently in people’s minds than the party’s name. This symbolic association has significant implications in a symbol-reliant electoral voting process. He criticised Tarique Rahman’s leadership, failed promises, and also highlighted local BNP’s misdeeds.
He mentioned that over the past 15 years, the oppressed BNP members from his area called him, emphasising the need to vote and specifically to vote for 'Daripalla'. Since 5 August, the oppressed BNP members have felt sidelined within the party. Opportunists have grown bold, which the people cannot endure. Additionally, Awami League members infiltrating BNP have also disgruntled the oppressed BNP members.
These issues are relevant for the entire country. Many places have shown increased interest in Jamaat, but how significant is that support, and what will it yield in the election?
Asif Mohammed Shahan said, "Traditionally, the BNP's public base is much larger and stronger than Jamaat's. Even if the BNP has lost some of its base, the remainder still surpasses Jamaat's. Despite Jamaat's vote share rising from 12 to 35 per cent, it may still not be sufficient to form a government. Although Jamaat has tapped into non-partisan and some BNP votes, it hasn't managed to attract all swing voters. A significant reason is the organisational limitations of the party and the lack of qualified candidates in all constituencies. Jamaat primarily bets on Rajshahi, Khulna, and Rangpur, and isn't very confident about other divisions."
Furthermore, speculations and conspiracy theories about whether the election would occur and Tarique Rahman’s return added pressure on BNP. Internal pressures from nomination seekers, leader evaluations, and candidate selection challenges led to over 70 independent candidates from within BNP itself. Such a precedent was never seen in the party before.
Regarding the growing interest in Jamaat, political analyst Asif Bin Ali remarked, "Over the past year and a half, Jamaat and Shibir have run a highly organised campaign on social media, maintaining strong continuity. Slogans like ''You've seen Awami League, You've seen BNP, now see Jamaat’ have been used for some time. Looking at social media, it seems Jamaat is poised to do very well. But when juxtaposed with reliable surveys, there’s a slight mismatch between the social media hype and reality."
Asif Bin Ali added, "Another thing to remember is that only 50 per cent of people in Bangladesh have internet access, and even fewer are social media users. Thus, those outside the internet and social media realm will vote as silent voters. We don't know much about these silent voters yet, so it's not appropriate to predict based on social media hype. Local dynamics, local politics, people's priorities, the Awami League's voter bank, and minority votes will all influence this."
Those affiliated with Jamaat politics see the situation differently. When speaking with educator and researcher Mardia Momtaz, she said, "First, people were long in the dark about Jamaat's organisational grace, fair conduct, and tolerance. This darkness lifted after 5 August. People saw the party’s leadership and standards firsthand. Second, Jamaat has made people aware of the fascist rule characterised by disappearances, killings, and oppression over the past 17 years. Third, Jamaat’s nomination of educated, corruption-free, non-defaulter candidates has attracted people. The wave of support for Jamaat isn't hype. It's enthusiasm and spontaneous expression due to an environment free of fear."
Following Sheikh Hasina's ousting, the BNP shifted focus toward elections. The other parties like Jamaat and the newly formed NCP demanded reforms before elections. These groups managed to pressure BNP into the reform process or consensus commission. At the same time, Jamaat advanced preparations and plans on the ground. Jamaat announced nominations in almost all constituencies about a year ago, while BNP lagged behind.
Furthermore, speculations and conspiracy theories about whether the election would occur and Tarique Rahman’s return added pressure on BNP. Internal pressures from nomination seekers, leader evaluations, and candidate selection challenges led to over 70 independent candidates from within BNP itself. Such a precedent was never seen in the party before.
As a result, the earlier discussion about a big BNP victory has suffered setbacks. Despite seeing a wave of support for Jamaat, many witnesses and analysts of the country’s political history believe that in the end, the BNP, with its long-standing strong public base, will remain ahead in the electoral field. However, they are also waiting to see what surprise Jamaat might spring in the election results.
#Rafsan Galib is an editorial assistant at Prothom Alo.
*Email: [email protected]
*Opinions are the author''s own.
#This article, originally published in Prothom Alo online edition, has been rewritten in English by Rabiul Islam.