The current energy crisis has not suddenly appeared; Petrobangla has been following a gas-import-dependent plan since 2011-12. Gas production from local sources (including Petrobangla and IOC) reached 2,700 million cubic feet in 2016-17 but has now decreased to about 1,500 million cubic feet. This is a major failure of Petrobangla.
The previous Awami League government became increasingly import-dependent without giving adequate importance to gas exploration and production from local sources. A key part of their plan included establishing floating LNG terminals (FSRUs) and land-based regasification plants. It's now evident that neither has been effective as expected.
Currently, we only have two FSRUs in Maheshkhali. Due to infrastructural limitations, we cannot import gas from external sources as needed. On the other hand, the initiatives and plans to increase gas production from local sources over the last 10-11 years have not achieved the desired success.
The question now is, how can we get out of this situation? There is no quick and easy solution to the current crisis. In terms of increasing domestic gas production, a ''BAPEX-only'' policy has been generally followed thus far. We had hoped that relying on BAPEX, production could be maintained up to a certain level. But the reality is that production is decreasing by 100-200 million cubic feet every year.
Effective measures should have been taken earlier to curb this trend of production decline. Now, those initiatives by BAPEX that have not achieved the desired success need to be re-evaluated.
Our planning and analysis, especially technical analyses, are primarily confined within Bapex's internal personnel and capabilities. In this situation, an external third-party opinion is needed swiftly. Specifically, for gas fields where production is consistently declining, leveraging the expertise of international companies as consultants for development and maintaining production should be considered.
Secondly, Chevron has been producing gas very successfully in Bangladesh for a long time. Consideration should be given to how Chevron's capabilities and experience can be utilized to rapidly increase gas supply in the country. They have long-standing local experience and the necessary infrastructure and operational capability.
Even if these initiatives are undertaken now, it may take six months to a year to yield results. Therefore, opportunities for using alternative fuels must be considered immediately to manage the current crisis.
Firstly, the use of LPG in households can be increased. LPG is the most direct alternative fuel to natural gas. However, given that both natural gas and LPG are import-dependent, both exert pressure on foreign exchange. In other words, importing LNG requires foreign exchange and the same pressure applies to importing LPG. The crucial difference is that we already have the necessary infrastructure for LPG import. Currently, we import approximately 1. 5 million tonnes of LPG, whereas the existing infrastructure can support imports of up to 3 million tonnes.
Secondly, the use of autogas as an alternative to CNG in vehicles can be increased. There is also scope to expand the use of LPG in some industries, especially those where energy costs are comparatively lower relative to the total cost of manufactured products. Many industrial entrepreneurs have already started using LPG on their own initiative.
Thirdly, swift and strict measures are needed to stop gas theft. Approximately 200 million cubic feet of gas is stolen daily, primarily through illegal connections. Gas is extremely valuable for us now, yet it continues to be stolen. If gas theft can be stopped, supply to actual users can be slightly increased. However, the problem is so widespread that even after disconnecting illegal connections, they are often quickly reconnected. Therefore, continuous monitoring could keep gas theft to a minimum.
We need a clear plan on which energy will be used in which sector, where, and in what amount. It is essential to create an integrated and realistic picture of future energy demand from battery-operated rickshaws and EV cars to industries and households, and the energy mix for power generation.
The crisis in the energy sector, centered around gas, may find some relief through these measures, but it will not solve the entire crisis. The majority of our gas is used for power production. With the decrease in gas supply, power production is also declining, and load-shedding is increasing. In this situation, it is necessary to maximize the production capacity of coal-based power plants. Additionally, dependence on gas for power generation will further decrease when nuclear power plants are operational.
For long, we've been working within a ''fire-fighting'' approach in the energy sector, trying to solve emergency problems one after another through ad-hoc measures. Therefore, the most crucial work for the medium to long term will be properly determining energy demand.
We need a clear plan on which energy will be used in which sector, where, and in what amount. It is essential to create an integrated and realistic picture of future energy demand from battery-operated rickshaws and EV cars to industries and households, and the energy mix for power generation.
Our approach must be based on a multi-faceted energy mix of renewable energy, coal, gas, and nuclear power. In terms of renewable energy, our primary source is solar power. A clear outline is needed regarding how much solar power can be produced, whether grid-based or off-grid. The government has set a target to produce 10,000 megawatts of solar power by 2030. Achieving even 5,000 megawatts of solar power would be a significant achievement. This target can be met through a combination of grid and rooftop solar power.
We also have our own coal sources, but they aren’t being properly utilized. Despite having the capability to produce 525 megawatts of power in Barapukuria, mainly a 225-megawatt power plant remains operational. The other two face various technical and mechanical issues hindering their operation. Currently, we require 18-20 million tonnes of coal annually, but only about 1 million tonnes can be produced annually from Barapukuria.
Our reliance on imports in the energy sector will continue. Hence, the potential for self-coal production needs to be re-examined. Self-reliance in the energy sector is extremely important for us. Of course, environmental sensitivity must be considered in the use of fuel like coal. However, if environmental issues are overly prioritised at the expense of economic development in a developing country like ours, it could lead to further setbacks, and in reality, even more negative impacts on the environment may occur.
In the long term, we need to move towards regional cooperation in the energy sector. At the establishment of interconnectivity, opportunities to import surplus power generated in Nepal, Bhutan, India, and Myanmar would be created.
There is no alternative to increasing overall efficiency in energy savings. The significant load-shedding during the summer is primarily due to the excessive use of fans and air conditioners. Most air conditioners in our country are not yet equipped with inverter technology. Using inverter-equipped air conditioners and refrigerators could save up to 20 to 40 per cent of electricity.
Above all, the energy crisis cannot be solved through a single measure.These initiatives must be implemented together as part of an integrated action plan. Otherwise, no visible relief can be achieved.
#M Tamim is Vice-Chancellor, Independent University, Bangladesh (IUB)
The opinions expressed here are the author's own.
*This article, originally published in Prothom Alo print and online editions, has been rewritten in English.