How the world will change

Addressing the nation on 18 March, Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel said that the corona pandemic was the biggest crisis since World War II. She perhaps was speaking in context of her own country, but the bottom line is, the world has intractably changed since December 2020. This change perhaps will be very different from anything before, a change in the very fundamentals. The human race must be prepared for many new things. Some of the changes will be permanent.

The present living generation has never seen such an all-encompassing global disaster before. Every day the devastation wrought by COVID-19 brings fresh shock. No one knows where this will end. Initially it hadn’t seemed possible that China would be able to overcome such a gigantic crisis. Nor could it be conceived that Europe and North America would face such a massive disaster. Those areas had been considered as relative safe havens, yet now they are struggling with their very existence.

The extent of damage in Iran is still not clear. What is clear, though, is that the virus has been controlled in the countries which honestly faced up to the devastating facts and aggressively dealt with the problem. It has been quite the contrary in other places.

The devastation brought about by corona is just the first chapter. The next chapters will gradually unfold. A lesson has been taught in the meantime, that you cannot deprive one part of the world from clean water and minimum sanitation facilities and expect perfect health conditions elsewhere.

The US, Britain and the other powers of the world have failed to lend global leadership in the times of coronavirus. The leaders of these countries have failed to make a single statement to inspire any degree of confidence among the people of the world. This is indicating the need for rotation of global political leadership in the days to come. There have been such examples in the past during pandemic outbreaks. Many powers collapsed, having failed in guardianship. But the lessons of such epidemics are not all the same. That too is a lesson to learn.

What has been apparent so far is that the US failed to test may of its citizens for the virus in time. And in the meantime it failed the ‘global governance test’.

At the behest of the US, Europe has unnecessarily embroiled itself in war over the years in various parts of the world. Yet the moment the virus struck, the US immediately shut down links with its closest ally Europe, with no consultation whatsoever. The US president has failed to display any sense of responsibility to any other part of the world either. This reminds one of the Spanish Flu epidemic during World War I. It was then that Austria and Germany lost their power, while Britain and France rose up.

Pandemics do not just change politics. These change economics too. After the Spanish Flu, women began to work in factories to fill the vacuum. We still do not know what changes COVID-19 will bring about.

For many citizens of North America and Europe, this is the first time they have experienced having money in their pockets, but not being able to buy anything. Then there are travel bans, sealed borders and emergency conditions. The supply chains worldwide have snapped. This is quite devastating for economic globalisation and the world will plunge into a recession.

Businesspersons in all countries are looking to their respective governments for a bail-out. Some want cash incentives and some want tax exemptions. This is an unprecedented situation which calls for an unprecedented solution. But the central banks and finance ministers of most countries are at a complete loss.

The states are wanting support from the World Bank, IMF and ADB. No one is willing to point at the errors in the systems. Questions are already being asked as to why there are not an adequate number of masks in the government hospitals of a so-called mid-income country. This is a structural crisis, for sure.

The global long-standing negligence of public health, nature and the environment in favour of capital accumulation is not only being challenged on ethical grounds, but on pragmatic grounds too. The factories in China having been shut down for weeks on end point to the fact that you cannot run such industries while ignoring people’s health and nature. People in their masks are now realising that clean water and clean air had been absent in their visions of development. So the question actually is whether it is a virus that has attacked the human race, or whether it is capitalism that has pitched humankind into danger.

Much is being discussed about the demographic aspect of the coronavirus crisis. In many countries, the virus is affecting more people over 60. But the social message is depressing. The empty shelves of the supermarkets have revealed that the world community is actually devoid of harmony, solidarity, farsightedness and empathy and is filled with greed, exploitation and cutthroat competition. This has been marked in most countries, with only very few exceptions. COVID-19 has stripped society bare.

Mental helplessness had driven people to such behavior. Many people have almost created warehouses of tinned food and toilet tissues in their homes. These tendencies aren’t going to disappear anytime soon. The ‘system’ has failed to reassure the people.

Corona is also bringing about structural changes in religious practice. Most major religious congregations have been suspended for the time being. Even if these are restarted, there is going to be much more health and hygiene awareness. There is already debate and discussion about how to handle the upcoming Islamic month of fasting, Ramadan. In many countries the Friday jumma prayers has been suspended.

This is same in the case of education. Schools and colleges have shut down in around 75 countries. Even after the corona crisis, a lot of higher studies will go online.

Sports is affected too. Till June this year, all big sporting events have been cancelled or postponed. The Olympics scheduled for July-August in Japan is likely to be pushed back too.

Corona will leave behind a challenge to globalisation, proving that this is not a sustainable concept. Commercial interests were at the centre of globalisation, not political cohesion. Corona had shed light on the dark side of globalisation.

With the onslaught of coronavirus, each country was conscious of its own borders. Even the European Union could not take a joint decision regarding the crisis. On the contrary, they sealed their borders, blocking out one another. The term that has now emerged is ‘corona-nationalism’. Not getting any help from the neighbouring countries, Serbian president Alexander Vucic has called European unity nothing but a fairy tale.

Regional polarisations will increase. Open borders will no longer be as before. All these tendencies go against the concept of globalisation. We still do not know how this vacuum in geopolitics will be filled.

China, before any agency in the US, sent huge amounts of masks and corona test kits to 54 countries in Africa, keeping it ahead in the global power race. It is clear that the long-standing US-China trade war is now becoming a political one. And this war will retard recovery from the corona crisis. It may create anarchy in international relations at a time when unity is imperative if an international health infrastructure is to be created.

However, it is inevitable that the US admits defeat. After all. China controls 95 per cent of its antibiotic market.

The emerging conflict between China and the US will force certain big manufacturers at the starting point of the supply chain to move their factories to places out of reach of this conflict.

Given the corona experience, countries may go back to the old ways of producing their own goods. Health checks will increase in the international transportation of goods. Investments will have to be made in cleanliness and hygiene. This will push prices up. Employment will go down, prices will go up, creating a difficult situation.

The IMF managing director has asked everyone to prepare for hard times ahead. The institution is coming up with 50 billion dollars. The World Bank is speaking of a 12 billion dollar funds. IMF has spoken of an uncertain financial future for the world.

Corona may also change the labour-intensive industry. Countries like Bangladesh, India and Pakistan will have to invest a lot in training the surplus workforce to face the new circumstances.

The possibilities are also clear. The world’s production and marketing is rapidly going online. The markets will move away to the shops and go to the world of e-commerce. Malls may have bad news ahead. A huge workforce will be learning how to work from home and sell online.

Skype, video conferencing and such may soon be taking a large chunk away from air travel. The tourism sector will struggle for long. Large industrial expositions will go online too for quite some time.

Countries like Cuba may prove to be change-makers when it comes to biotech research and production. The US then may lift its long-standing embargo on Cuba and change its stance.

Generally speaking, things look up for big pharmaceutical companies. But physicians are likely to be consulted more and more online. Science education will focus more on genetics, biology and contagious diseases.

There is also a huge demand now to investment more in nursing and in healthcare for the elderly.

It can be hoped that there will be changes in the attitudes towards defence and security. Every crisis opens doors to possibilities. People are going to be more careful in their food habits. Organic foods will be promoted. Corona has pointed out that having sufficient Vitamin D in your body is more important than wearing masks. The style of consumerism will change. Lifestyles will change.

During this crisis, many countries strong in defence and security, had to approach other countries for masks and general medical supplies. Now perhaps some of the conventional defence budget will go towards building up health and medical competence. The invisible threat has shaken the world harder than the visible threats.

Coronavirus may even change social values. We will proceed towards a ‘new normal’. It is still hard to conceive of social changes ahead and the estimate of damages is still at a preliminary stage.

The changes in people’s habits brought about by coronavirus shows that it is not impossible for people to change to better and improved living habits.

There are indications of state surveillance increasing in this connection. It will go beyond just the present biometric surveillance. Even hand washing may be monitored. Volunteers in the health sector may become an integral part of the days to come.

Movement and gatherings will not be free as before. People will have to be brought under control for their own safety. Online communication will replace physical interaction.

‘Community’ will diminish and the already powerful state apparatus will take on an even more authoritarian stance. China’s authoritarian model proved to be effective against coronavirus. This has put pressure again on the concept of democracy. There are tough times ahead for liberal individual freedom. New conservative laws are likely to be put in place.

On a positive note, many commentators are predicting more focus on specialised knowledge in the post-corona world. This may take civilisation towards a trend in scientific thinking, with analysis and data guiding people in their everyday lives.

The virus scare had cut down in air, land and sea travel, which in turn has cut down on pollution. This, in turn, is likely cut down on diseases too in future.

Corona has sent a wave of health consciousness over the world. This is the biggest gain from the crisis so far. And after the rain there is the rainbow. The rainbow has many colours. But we still don’t know when this death rain will stop. We don’t know when people will hug each other again, without fear or a second thought, when they will throw off their masks and breathe in the fresh air. This may be a few more months, a year. But one thing is certain, people will rise up again, anew, with new experience. This has happened after every great disaster.

* Altaf Parvez is a researcher. This piece appeared in the print edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten in English by Ayesha Kabir.