The interim government has announced a roadmap for a democratic transition through elections, scheduled for next February. This goal is of immense importance, as it provides a sense of direction to national forces. That is one dimension.
The second issue, which I consider equally significant, arises from a recent survey conducted by our organisation, the Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC). The findings reveal that the poverty rate in Bangladesh has risen to 28 per cent, up from the government’s official figure of 18.7 per cent in 2022.
Meanwhile, we saw for the past year, both the government and much of civil society have devoted their energies almost exclusively to debates over constitutional reform.
Reforms, democratic transition and debates on constitutional reforms are necessary, provided that their ultimate goal remains the welfare of the people. Yet the PPRC survey delivers a stark message about ground realities: in the battle against poverty, we are regressing. This message cannot be ignored; it must be brought to the forefront of national attention with equal urgency.
We are moving backwards on poverty reduction because our economy has slowed. Stabilising the economy is an achievement, but beyond that we must now confront a growing stagnation.
Unemployment has reached alarming levels, posing what can only be described as a catastrophe for livelihoods. Following the PPRC survey, a government study has also been released, showing a rising rate of primary school dropouts. These are pressing issues that the government, political parties, and civil society must urgently address.
The third point is that, while a democratic transition has been announced, uncertainty still looms. How this uncertainty is navigated will be crucial.
Here, I want to highlight three aspects. First, the phenomenon I call the “Absent Government Syndrome”. The government is visible every day, yet in terms of effective governance, it is as if absent. Violence and intolerance are spreading unchecked, and the absence of effective government action is fuelling uncertainty. If the state remains absent in such matters, violence will escalate, potentially destabilising the upcoming election and raising the spectre of a non-competitive contest.
Second, political groups appear more invested in narrow self-interest than in safeguarding democratic transition. This is why new issues are constantly being brought to the fore, and the work of the National Consensus Commission remains incomplete. This too fuels uncertainty.
Third, we must add the word “qualitative” to the idea of democratic transition. The July uprising claimed many lives. In this context, mere transition to democracy will not suffice; what is needed is a qualitative transformation—one that guarantees effective governance and a rights-based order for citizens. Yet it is precisely here that assurance is lacking, and it is here that we must move forward.
I think consensus cannot be confined to “drawing-room” discussions. Rather, a social initiative is needed. At present, those discussions involve the government, the government-appointed commission, and political parties. I wish them success, but so far they have failed to inspire confidence. Uncertainty cannot be dispelled by rhetoric alone.
The process of consensus must continue, but alongside it, a new social initiative is essential—one that can build credible realities around the promise of qualitative change. I propose five national policy dialogues, convened by social forces and bringing together three sets of actors: political leaders, business leaders, and professionals.
The first national policy dialogue will be on the economy. A transition to democracy requires dismantling the entrenched oligarchic model, in which a handful of elites control the economy. The second one will be on education. This is because our education sector has gone seriously off-track; a fresh national vision is required. The third national policy dialogue will be on health. The sector is in disarray, yet remains vital to people’s lives. The fourth one will be on decentralisation and local government. Hyper-centralisation has long been a pillar of authoritarian rule; this must change. The fifth policy dialogue will be on geopolitics and geostrategy. Here, by professionals I also include the armed forces, whose perspectives are indispensable.
I think these five dialogues could help anchor a qualitative democratic transition. There is no room for despair. Our PPRC survey shows that, even amid the scourge of poverty, people are not prepared to give up hope. Neither can we. We must go on trying. But let it be clear: we no longer have patience for paper promises.
* Hossain Zillur Rahman is a former Adviser to the Caretaker Government
* The views expressed are the author’s own.