The aftermath of the US and Israeli attacks in Iran has spread throughout the Middle East. The brutality of the war has already reached the shores of neighboring country Sri Lanka. This sequence of events began on 28 February with the long-range missile attacks by the US and Israel on Iran. The justification of the attack is that Iran, disregarding international law, is on the brink of developing nuclear weapons. Iran has been developing medium and long-range missiles with its own technology for a long time. Despite various international sanctions over 47 years, they have maintained their military capability. Many believe that under these circumstances, Iran might consider advancing its nuclear programme with self-defence reasoning.
On the other hand, many consider Israel a nuclear-armed state, although not officially recognised. Therefore, the balance of regional power and security concerns become important here. The inception of nuclear technology in Iran started with the help of the US during the reign of former Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. During the Cold War, as part of Washington's ''Atoms for Peace'' programme, cooperation with Tehran was established and continued until the Islamic revolution in 1979. During that time, Iran was one of the closest allies of the United States in the Middle East.
After the establishment of the State of Israel, there were strategic communications between Tehran and Tel Aviv. As the second Muslim country after Turkey, Iran recognised Israel in 1950. However, the Islamic Revolution fundamentally changed this equation. The new regime took an anti-Israel stance, and relations with the United States rapidly deteriorated.
A new chapter of regional conflict began from here. The post-revolution fear of a Shia rise further intensified the Shia and Sunni divide in the Middle East. Over the past four decades, there has been massive bloodshed in regional conflicts, proxy wars, and political rivalries.
Relations between oil-rich Sunni Arab states and Iran have long been strained. Geopolitical competition, security concerns, and questions of regional leadership have increased this distance. After the First and Second World Wars, the influence of superpowers in the Middle East, the 1948 Arab-Israeli conflict, and subsequent clashes have laid the foundation for the current reality.
A significant portion of Iran's military capability is a result of self-initiated efforts. Even amid long-standing sanctions, they have attempted to make progress in missile and nuclear technology. According to Tehran, the primary rationale for this programme is self-defense and maintaining military balance with adversary states like Israel.
In contrast, there has long been a debate in Israeli politics about the idea of a larger territory. Some hardline Zionist groups believe in the concept of ''Eretz Israel HaShlema.'' In their explanation, this territory is not limited to just the West Bank and Gaza. According to many analysts, the idea of a Greater Israel is embodied in the symbol of Israel's flag. According to them, the two parallel blue lines above and below the star of David on the flag are interpreted as symbols of the Nile and Euphrates rivers. In religious descriptions, the land between these two rivers is sometimes referred to as Israel's historical or promised land.
Many associate Israel's current Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, with this hardline nationalist ideology. Although there is no official declaration of such an expansive territorial claim in state policy, the debate around this notion impacts Middle Eastern politics. Some groups interpret the land described in Hebrew Bible, Ezekiel chapter 47, verses 13 to 20, and various scriptures as the so-called ''Promised Land.'' The blend of religious narrative and modern state policy has made the politics of the region sensitive.
Although the ongoing conflict is currently limited to aerial and missile attacks, the way the situation is advancing, the possibility of a ground invasion cannot be ruled out.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi has informed Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, that the target of Iran's missile attacks is US military bases on their territory, not the countries themselves. But in reality, most Gulf countries fall under the US security umbrella, and many have recognised Israel. In the past, Iran's relations with these countries were not very warm, and economic transactions were limited due to US sanctions.
Iran has the third-largest oil reserves in the world, estimated at about 208 to 209 billion barrels. Currently, the country produces approximately 3 to 3.3 million barrels of oil daily. A large portion of the produced oil and gas, about 80 per cent, is exported to China. With the Straits of Hormuz practically paralysed due to the conflict, energy exports from the Gulf region are severely hindered. This impact is profound for countries like Bangladesh. Roughly 90 per cent of the country's energy oil is imported from the Middle East. With the paralysing of the Straits of Hormuz, increases in oil prices, transportation costs, and pressure on foreign currency could destabilise the economy.
Geopolitically, Iran is virtually encircled by the US and Israel. Through combined pressure, the strategy to weaken Iran's military capability and change leadership is in play. So far, no Muslim state has openly taken a strong position in favour of Iran. Pakistan is to the southeast of Iran, and the Pakistan-Afghanistan border tensions have made regional equations more complex. Strategically, Iran and China's potential land communication route passes through Pakistan.
If Iran is defeated in this war, significant unrest could arise within the country. Iran's society comprises various ethnic and linguistic groups. Political and cultural demands of Kurdish, Azeri, Baluch, and Turkish populations might resurface. If central authority weakens, civil conflict or separatist activities could increase. This would expose regional integrity to risks and fundamentally alter the power balance in the Middle East.
In the regional equation, the United States will play a crucial role. Washington's support in strengthening Israel's security and strategic position has been historically influential. Simultaneously, the positions of other regional and global powers may also become crucial in determining future scenarios.
Before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, a significant number of Jewish citizens lived in Iran. According to various sources, their number was about ten thousand at that time. Currently, approximately eight to ten thousand Jews reside in Iran, and according to the constitution, they are given the opportunity for representation as a recognised minority community.
During Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's era, close strategic relations were established between Iran and Israel. Security and intelligence cooperation have also been mentioned in various studies. In 1968, a joint venture constructed the Eilat Ashkelon Pipeline for transporting Iranian oil, stretching approximately 254 kilometers from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. Through it, oil was supplied to Europe.
Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, this relationship completely changed. Under the leadership of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the new regime severed diplomatic relations with Israel and took an anti-US stance.
Iran's new leadership views Israel as an illegal occupier of Palestinian territory, whereas the US considers Iran's policies post-Islamic Revolution as a challenge to regional stability. This mutual mistrust has formed the foundation for four decades of tension.
*M Sakhawat Hossain is a former advisor to the interim government, former election commissioner, and retired military officer.
* The views expressed are the author’s own.
#This article, originally published in Prothom Alo print and online editions, has been rewritten in English.