December 2025 will be remembered in the country’s political history for many reasons. The final month of the year has emerged as a starting point that seems to have altered the course of politics in the new year. Within just one month, the people of the country, on the one hand, faced deep anxiety following the killing of Osman Hadi, and on the other, clearly expressed their expectations and political preferences on the question of democracy.
The large public turnout at Osman Hadi’s funeral was a reflection of that trust and affection. In silence, the people of the country appeared to have conveyed what kind of representatives they want and what kind of politics they are prepared to embrace.
Amid this atmosphere, BNP’s Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman returned to the country. Following the death of Khaleda Zia, he became the party’s chairman in accordance with established rules. The significance of Tarique Rahman’s return home is not merely that of a political event.
After a long period marked by political frustration, uncertainty, and insecurity, people have begun to rediscover the courage to regain interest in and expectations from politics. There were many questions among informed circles regarding his three-day public outreach programme after his return. The challenges he faced were handled with patience and restraint. During this period, the passing of Khaleda Zia, the country’s first female prime minister, generated intense emotion in politics on the one hand, and on the other, emerged as a clear turning point in BNP’s political trajectory.
Time and again in the country’s politics, it has been seen that when a political leader is able to properly channel public sentiment and conduct political activities accordingly, it leaves a positive impact on public opinion. At this moment, people are once again looking toward politics with hope. However, this hope is not merely about changing political representatives. Rather, it is primarily about reforming administrative and institutional structures. People are beginning to understand that without structural reform, the old sense of discomfort and uncertainty cannot be removed.
This crisis has become evident through recent events. On 12 December last year, in Bijoynagar in the capital, Osman Hadi—spokesperson of the Inqilab Moncho and a prospective independent candidate from the Dhaka-8 constituency—was seriously injured by gunfire from assailants. Following his death, deep concerns about security arose not only among politicians but also among ordinary citizens.
At such a volatile time, when people were somewhat disillusioned with BNP’s politics, Tarique Rahman returned to the country. After returning, he carried out a three-day public outreach programme. The security arrangements around him were normal and necessary. Given his political position and the backdrop of recent violence, such security was also his due.
The major question before Tarique Rahman was whether he would be able to shape public opinion even from within this security cordon. In the end, he succeeded. By carrying out his programme with patience and restraint, he has also initiated a change in BNP’s politics. The party has now begun to move toward organisational planning. In the past, it often seemed that although the party was organised, it remained stagnant when it came to implementing effective plans. Its grassroots politics appeared to be in a state of waiting. With Tarique Rahman’s return to the country, that waiting has come to an end. To political analysts, this transformation may seem almost like a fairy tale.
In December, we also witnessed the formation of an alliance between Jamaat-e-Islami and the National Citizen Party (NCP), a youth-led political party that emerged after the uprising of ’24. On the question of reform, the NCP has chosen Jamaat as its close ally. On one side stands the BNP, and on the other, a Jamaat-led multi-party alliance. In this reality, it is clear that the winds of electoral politics have begun to blow in the country. The political activities of these two alliances will play a major role in shaping the future parliamentary framework.
In this context, political parties will need to give equal importance to both institutional reform and democratic sentiment. By that measure, the BNP currently appears to be ahead. Many believe that voters cast their ballots solely on the basis of electoral symbols. However, politics is also fundamentally a psychological process. The behaviour of voters in the capital and major cities differs from that of voters in peripheral areas. For voters in marginal regions, basic needs are more important, whereas in urban life, people’s primary concern is security. Voters in major cities such as Dhaka and Chattogram place security above all else.
This is why the role of local government administration is extremely important. Yet, after the fall of the Awami League government, the local government structure has become almost ineffective. There has been no visible reform activity. Although local government elections were supposed to be held before the national parliamentary elections, they did not take place. As a result, public hesitation and uncertainty regarding national politics have increased further.
Strengthening local government administration would also provide a solid foundation for national politics. Local-level needs are represented in parliament. When a member of parliament can provide practical solutions to local problems, they gain both the moral and political authority to secure welfare-oriented budgets at the national level. This coordination between institutional structure and public sentiment is the true beauty of democracy. Unfortunately, political parties have long failed to properly recognise and understand this principle.
We are seeing that many leaders of the party have resigned following the NCP’s alliance with Jamaat. While the central leadership views this as a pre-election compromise, there are questions about how effectively this message has reached the grassroots. Jamaat appears to be active on the ground and seems to be moving forward with a clear objective. At the same time, the BNP is currently in the most advantageous position. In academic terms, the current political situation can be described as transitional politics. During such a transition, hope and anxiety coexist, and political competition takes on an effective form.
To sustain this competition, the role of the election commission and the caretaker government is crucial. Voters must be provided an environment where they can go to polling stations without any concerns about their safety. At the same time, it is essential to establish a framework for accountable and reform-based politics for political parties. The recommendations of the reform commissions already formed by the caretaker government must now be ensured for implementation by the future parliament through a clear roadmap.
At this moment, the BNP occupies a strong position in the country’s politics. Many dynamics have changed following Tarique Rahman’s return to the country. During her lifetime, Khaleda Zia was a symbol of unity for the party. Even after her death, that sentiment remains. This emotion has become a major supportive force for the BNP. Tarique Rahman is leveraging it organisationally to shape public opinion. As a result, there is a growing expectation within the party of a landslide victory in the elections.
However, it is important to ensure that this confidence does not become a source of public hardship or anxiety. Tarique Rahman now faces a major challenge: on one hand, to establish himself as a new political symbol in the absence of Khaleda Zia, and on the other, to restructure the institutional framework of a multi-party democracy, like that of Ziaur Rahman, to fit new realities. It is the combination of political sentiment and structural reform that can lead the country toward a more refined practice of democracy.
In this endeavor, the positive role of the Election Commission and administration is indispensable. Coordinated initiatives from all sides could be the most positive force for Bangladesh’s democracy.
#Dr. Musleh Uddin Ahmed is an expert in Local Government and Politics, Professor, Department of Public Administration, University of Dhaka
*The opinions expressed are the author’s own.
#This article, originally published in Prothom Alo online edition, has been rewritten in English by Rabiul Islam.