It has been a year since the July uprising. Exactly one year ago in July, the people dragged the fascist Sheikh Hasina down from power.
In face of the protests launched by the students and the masses, the authoritarian Sheikh Hasina was forced to flee from the country to India.
It was because of the unprecedented unity that was forged during the July uprising that the autocratic rule Sheikh Hasina was forced to flee.
However, one year on since then, divisions and rifts appear. After any revolution or uprising, divisions inevitably emerge over the issue of power.
When many sides are involved in this political change, the division gradually exacerbates. There was no sole force that was in charge of our July uprising.
The students lent leadership from the forefront. But there was massive participation by the political parties. They had organised the anti-Hasina movement from behind.
The common people too fought against Hasina's fascist rule with all their might. It was the 17-year relentless struggle that was ultimately manifest in the shape of the July uprising.
The students who led the July uprising have formed a new party. But the party is now embroiled in controversy over several issues. There are even allegations of corruption and irregularities against some of the leaders. The government too is unable to run the country properly.
The current situation in our country resembles that of Tunisia. And this resemblance is a cause for concern and apprehension. We surely haven’t forgotten Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution. In 2010–11, after 28 days of protest, Tunisia’s autocrat Ben Ali was forced to flee power, much like Sheikh Hasina
There has hardly been any tangible improvement in the country's overall condition over the past one year. There has been much talk about reforms. The government and the pro-government parties are trying to more or less forcefully impose the reforms.
If one does not agree with them 100 per cent, one is immediately marked as anti-government. Truth be told, certain unrealistic and unworkable ideas have been dished out in the name of reforms and these will weaken the future government.
One year since the uprising, there is a feeling among many that the country is being deliberately led towards failure. There is a group that is close to those in power that is intentionally carrying out this plan. This group is creating all sorts of issues to cause a disruption in the county.
There is much similarity between the situation in Tunisia and our country at the start of the revolution. The unfolding events are similar too.
Ennahda, an organisation affiliated to Muslim Brotherhood, the largest and most organised party in Tunisia at the time. That party basically worked from behind the scenes, while the common people and other political parties were visible in the front.
The problem began after Ben Ali fled. If elections were held, Ennahda’s victory was certain. But Ennahda had to be stopped at any cost. Just like here, people are saying no one else should be allowed to become another Sheikh Hasina. Reforms are needed.
In Tunisia too, to prevent anyone else from becoming another Ben Ali, the 2014 constitution was amended to divide power between the president and the prime minister. It proposed a form of balanced governance.
But in reality, a weak system of government was established in Tunisia. Even those without public support were included in power-sharing arrangements under the pretext of maintaining balance.
As a result, from 2011 to 2021, Tunisia saw ten changes in government within ten years, a new government almost every year.
The current situation in our country resembles that of Tunisia. And this resemblance is a cause for concern and apprehension. We surely haven’t forgotten Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution. In 2010–11, after 28 days of protest, Tunisia’s autocrat Ben Ali was forced to flee power, much like Sheikh Hasina.
The Arab Spring began in Tunisia. It was sparked by the self-immolation of a young man named Bouazizi in protest against state repression. His death awakened the entire nation.
Just like the death of Abu Saeed had stirred us. After that, the streets were taken over by the people. The "palace" of Sheikh Hasina’s illegitimate regime was engulfed in the flames of public fury.
After the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia, supporters of Ben Ali within the military, police, and bureaucracy were not removed. The reason was that no government could remain in power long enough to do so. Similarly, here too, loyalists of Awami League have not yet been removed. In fact, there are allegations that many of them, having now rebranded themselves as opponents of Awami League, are enjoying various privileges.
Since 2010, revolutions and mass uprisings have brought about regime changes in several countries. Notable among them are Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Ukraine, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Armenia, Sri Lanka and Senegal.
But Tunisia was the only country where the constitution was amended following the revolution. However, that constitutional change failed to yield any positive results. Instead, frequent changes in government led to a decline in investment, economic recession, and rising unemployment in Tunisia.
As public dissatisfaction grew, a university professor named Kais Saied seized power in 2019. He was a professor at a university in Tunis and a familiar face on television talk shows. He often spoke out against the economic mismanagement of the weak governments.
Because of this, he quickly gained popularity. Later, with the support of Tunisia’s elite, he took control of power. In 2021, he suspended the constitution, drafted a new one, and re-established authoritarian rule in the country.
Tunisia returned to the era of Ben Ali. Analysts have termed this return to autocracy as the Tunisia syndrome.
The Tunisia symptom is becoming evident in our country too. In Tunisia, there was no political party that could challenge Ennahda on the electoral front. Instead, smaller parties were brought together under Nidaa Tounes, a party loyal to Ben Ali.
Similarly, in our country, it is assumed that if elections are held, BNP will win. The focus of the others is to stop the BNP, even if that means delaying the election. Various parties are entering the political field with ever-changing issues. Much like Nidaa Tounes, loyal to Ben Ali in Tunisia, certain parties aligned with Awami League are reorganising in different ways.
Suddenly, some parties have started demanding elections and government formation through proportional representation. Their main objective is to block BNP.
In Tunisia, weak governments led to uncertainty and deterioration in law and order. In our country, mob rule has taken hold and people are being beaten to death in public.
Film screenings are being shut down. Tourists are being harassed at popular destinations. Shrines are under attack. Political violence is on the rise. Investment is declining.
In Tunisia, the constitution was deliberately amended to establish a weak government. Here too, there is talk of constitutional reform. These reform proposals seem aimed at forming a similarly weak government, just like in Tunisia.
In the attempt to stop Ennahda, Tunisia’s revolution was ultimately derailed. Here too, in the attempt to stop the BNP, the achievements of July are being pushed toward failure. On the anniversary of July, this is the growing fear that surrounds us.
While Tunisia syndrome is clearly visible in our country as well, the difference is that, in Tunisia, the so called secular parties united against Ennahda.
The West feared that if Ennahda formed a government and managed to stay in power, its influence might spread to other Arab nations. For the same reason, neither Tunisia, nor later Egypt under the Brotherhood aligned Morsi, was allowed to hold on to such a government.
By contrast, here it is the religious parties that are closing ranks against BNP. Who supports them from outside remains unclear, but the objective is identical: stop BNP. Yet the aim of any revolution or uprising cannot be to block a single party.
Rather, revolutions and popular uprisings are meant to establish a tolerant, multi party democracy. If that is not the goal, any revolution is doomed to fail. Tunisia is the best example of this. Therefore, before failure overtakes us, we must protect July from the Tunisia symptom.
* Dr. Maruf Mullick is a political analyst
* The views expressed are the author’s own.