Less than a month and a half remains until our long-awaited elections. The day after the schedule was announced, Osman Hadi, spokesperson of Inqilab Moncho, fell victim to an assassination. He was a potential candidate for a constituency in the capital, Dhaka. His killers have still not been apprehended. Inqilab Moncho has been vocal in demanding justice for his murder. This incident has raised concerns among many about how a peaceful election can take place under such fragile law and order.
This election is particularly significant because it will serve simultaneously as a national election and a referendum.
Once the schedule is announced, everything falls under the authority of the election commission. Meanwhile, the weakened Awami League has already announced its intention to obstruct the election, and some of its members are even threatening civil war. Has the commission made preparations to address these challenges?
According to Articles 118 and 119 of the constitution, the election commission is an independent body. Its responsibility is to conduct elections. Under the Election Commission Act of 2022, the commission has the authority to maintain its own secretariat and formulate rules and regulations.
According to the Chief Election Commissioner Act–2022, the election commission has the authority to formulate and enforce a code of electoral conduct; yet, despite having this legal power, the pressing question today is why the commission’s presence on the ground remains so weak.
The election commission has already published the final voter list. It has registered two new political parties and launched a mobile app to enable expatriates to vote.
This government has been most unsuccessful in controlling law and order. While attempts are made to compare the law-and-order situation under this government with that of the previous 'fascist' government using various data, such comparisons are largely absurd. Who provides this data? We have already seen plenty of fabricated data during the previous government’s tenure.
Even with sufficient time, this government has relied on individuals who benefited from and were involved in corruption under the previous government, rather than replacing them. The result—whenever given the opportunity, they will inevitably act with the support of fascist elements.
Since August 2024, the level of mob violence and criminal activity has increased. The Human Rights Watch report (January 2025) called for reforms in the security sector, yet no tangible progress has been seen.
After the election schedule is announced, security threats peak. All candidates across the country must move through crowds, and attacks become easiest under such circumstances.
The Awami League has historically set a precedent of seizing polling stations, exerting influence, and facilitating vote rigging. It is observed that many individuals who previously occupied polling centres or assisted in electoral irregularities on behalf of the Awami League may this time work for one party or another. This concern cannot be dismissed outright. As a result, the election commission must reassure the public with firm commitment that polling station security will be ensured and electoral misconduct prevented.
According to data from the Ain o Salish Kendra (ASK), in the electoral year 2018, at least 450 people were killed and more than 25,000 were injured due to political violence—demonstrating the vast gap between paper-based security plans and ground realities.
During the 2018 national elections, nearly 600,000 security personnel were deployed, including police, BGB, Ansar, and the army. From January to November 2024, the Ain o Salish Kendra (ASK) reported over a hundred election-related incidents of violence.
Since 5 August, thousands of firearms looted from the police have not been recovered. Most of the weapons used by Awami League leaders and activists during the July mass uprising remain unrecovered. Many of these perpetrators are still at large; some have even secured bail easily from the courts. This has weakened the morale of law enforcement in curbing crime.
Meanwhile, the home ministry has made a deeply concerning decision: it is issuing new arms licences. This appears to be an invitation for everyone to take the law into their own hands to cover up the government’s weaknesses. Can so many new weapons be controlled?
The US Embassy has issued a warning for its citizens in Bangladesh, noting that as the election date approaches, political rallies and protests may become more frequent and intense. In such a situation, Americans should take the warning seriously. It should also be remembered that peaceful protests can quickly turn into clashes and violence.
In today’s AI era, fact-checking is essential. Deepfake and misinformation campaigns have already begun. Some examples have emerged that are confusing ordinary voters.
During the 2016 US election, Facebook admitted that over 120 million users were exposed to politically false information. In Bangladesh’s current sensitive environment, the impact of such digital attacks could be even more severe.
Currently, eight private-sector fact-checking organisations operate in Bangladesh. The government does have the capability. In 2023, the DMP Cyber Crime Unit and the Bangladesh Telecom Regulatory Commission (BTRC) launched a 'Misinformation Control Room', which also includes the election commission. Yet, despite this capacity, it is unclear why the commission has not formed a joint government–private task force.
False campaigns from both inside and outside the country can disrupt peace. If the country becomes even more unstable than it is now, it is doubtful whether the election commission will be able to maintain control.
Since 2018, civil society has demanded CCTV coverage at all polling stations. Sadly, even in 2026, this has not been fully implemented. Recently (December 2025), the commission instructed that existing CCTV in schools be kept operational and requested coverage where cameras are not present, at least on voting day. However, the commission has not taken responsibility for installing new CCTV systems at all polling stations.
A UK Home Office survey found that CCTV reduces crime by 20–30 per cent. Yet, polling stations in Bangladesh remain outside even this minimal security measure.
If polling stations are equipped with CCTV, no one would dare attempt to seize control of a centre. Responsible officials would also be able to perform their duties impartially.
The Awami League has historically set a precedent of seizing polling stations, exerting influence, and facilitating vote rigging. It is observed that many individuals who previously occupied polling centres or assisted in electoral irregularities on behalf of the Awami League may this time work for one party or another. This concern cannot be dismissed outright. As a result, the election commission must reassure the public with firm commitment that polling station security will be ensured and electoral misconduct prevented.
The year 2026 is crucial for our economy. On 24 November 2026, Bangladesh will graduate from the status of a Least Developed Country (LDC) to a developing nation. If we do not have a stable government before then, the entire country will suffer the consequences.
The threat of fraudulent voting is particularly significant in this election due to the inclusion of expatriate votes. Nearly 400,000 expatriates have registered, and this number is expected to grow. If an expatriate registers for postal voting, will their vote be excluded from the domestic list? While NID verification is being conducted to prevent duplicate voting, implementing this within such a short time frame is challenging for the commission. The result—one person may be able to cast two votes. Some may also fail to vote in their area of residence due to relocation. If this information falls into the hands of a political party, it could easily arrange fraudulent votes.
Since voting will take place in two rounds on the same day, the total number of ballots will exceed 240 million. Bangladesh has never conducted such a massive simultaneous vote. If it takes an average of two minutes for a voter to cast ballots in both rounds, realistically, far more time will be required to process over 240 million ballots. Simply adding one extra hour will not solve this issue. Therefore, more careful planning and decision-making regarding timing is essential.
History shows that governments formed through controversial elections face international criticism. The immediate impact is felt in investment, foreign aid, and economic stability. The election commission could consider seeking strategic and technical assistance from the United Nations or other international donors, based on its capacity and needs.
If the legitimacy of this election is questioned, it will pose a challenge for the elected government in establishing good governance in the country.
The year 2026 is crucial for our economy. On 24 November 2026, Bangladesh will graduate from the status of a Least Developed Country (LDC) to a developing nation. If we do not have a stable government before then, the entire country will suffer the consequences.
#Subail Bin Alam is a writer on sustainable development. He is a member of the Citizen Coalition and the Bangladesh Research Analysis and Information Network (BRAIN).
Email: [email protected]
*This article, originally published in Prothom Alo print and online editions, has been rewritten in English by Rabiul Islam