As the interim government has banned its activities through an executive order, Awami League, one of the country’s major political parties, will not be able to contest the 12 February election. In the past, many governments have banned many parties, yet ultimately failed to suppress them.
During the final phase of Sheikh Hasina’s government, Jamaat-e-Islami was banned through an executive order. Yet the party has emerged as one of the key political forces in this election. During the tenure of Ziaur Rahman, the Democratic League and the Communist Party were also banned.
This has raised the question: what will common Awami League activists and supporters do in an election without the Awami League? Party leaders who are safely abroad have been issuing directives one after another. But they have not once considered how much danger these orders are placing on local leaders and activists inside the country.
If even half of AL activists and supporters who are voters turn up at polling centres, there is no doubt they will play a decisive role in determining the victory or defeat of parties and candidates. This is precisely why the BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and almost all other parties are wooing AL voters.
Last year, several untoward incidents occurred as a result of leaders’ provocative statements. Following the student movement leaders, they called for shutdowns and complete shutdowns, but failed to gain public support. Instead, common activists faced arrests and repression while attempting to hold processions.
Awami League leaders say, “Any election without the ''boat'' symbol will never be acceptable.” The party’s current leadership is strongly demanding an election that includes all parties. Yet when they were in power, they held one forced election after another while excluding opposition parties.
Over the past 17 months, Awami League leaders and activists who remain in the country have been living through an unbearable reality. Some have survived only by relying on the mercy of former political “enemies.” Others are on the run.
In such a situation, an official call for an election boycott by Awami League leaders and activists could create serious risks. In other words, even if not everyone does so, a large section of Awami League supporters will go to polling centres and cast their votes.
An echo of this was heard at an election meeting in the Madaripur-1 (Shibchar) constituency. On Tuesday evening, at the residence of Khan Bari in Shibchar municipality, at least 20 well-known leaders and activists of the Awami League, whose activities have been banned, attended a courtyard meeting of BNP candidate Nadira Akhter. All of them said they would vote for the ''sheaf of paddy'' candidate. One of them, out of old habit, even raised the slogan “Joy Bangla.”
Local Awami League leaders claim they are extending support for campaigning in favour of the ''sheaf of paddy'' candidate on the instructions of former chief whip Nur-e-Alam Chowdhury Liton. This suggests that while exiled Awami League leaders are publicly calling for an election boycott, at the local level they are asking supporters to vote for candidates they believe will pose less risk to them.
Not only the BNP, but other parties too are employing various strategies to draw Awami League supporters to their side. Incentives are being offered in different ways, and some are expressing sympathy as well. As a result, in this election without the boat symbol, it can be said with confidence that the party’s votes will largely end up in the ballot boxes of sympathetic candidates.
While campaigning in Thakurgaon on 28 January, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said, “This time there is no ''boat''. The ''boat'' has fled. It has left its supporters stranded and in trouble. We have stood by them in that trouble.” Jamaat’s nayeb-e-ameer Syed Abdullah Muhammad Taher announced in Chauddagram, Cumilla, that Awami League leaders and activists would not be harassed.
Gono Odhikar Parishad President Nurul Haq Nur said in his constituency, “I take responsibility for Awami League. Not a single one of you will come to even the slightest harm.”
Since 1991, in all the elections that have been held, except for 15 February 1996, Awami League has participated. In some, it won and formed the government; in others, it sat in the opposition. The party has also held three controversial elections. In these elections, the Awami League received a minimum of 30 per cent and a maximum of 47 per cent of the vote.
It is true that the Awami League’s popularity has declined after 15 consecutive years in power and three farcical elections. But there has been no landslide collapse. Even if the party’s public support has fallen to the nadir, it still retains the capacity to significantly influence election outcomes. If even half of Awami League activists and supporters who are voters turn up at polling centres, there is no doubt they will play a decisive role in determining the victory or defeat of parties and candidates. This is precisely why the BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and almost all other parties are wooing Awami League voters.
* Sohrab Hasan is a journalist and poet.
* The views expressed here are the author’s own.