Despite the illness of party chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has not stepped back from preparing the electoral field, a fact underscored by its announcement of candidates for a further 36 constituencies.
BNP leaders claim that by abolishing the traditional system of selling and submitting nomination papers, they have avoided the commercialisation surrounding nomination purchases. According to the party, final lists were made only after independent organisations conducted public opinion assessments in each constituency. Even so, controversy persists, with supporters of nomination-deprived leaders protesting in several areas.
Earlier, the party had announced candidates for 236 constituencies, saying then that some seats would be left for allies. A few constituencies were withheld due to internal disputes. In total, the BNP has now declared candidates for 272 seats, leaving 28 still pending. The number of BNP allies and coalition partners is significant, the 12-party alliance, six parties of the Ganatantra Mancha, and several others have reportedly expressed interest in contesting the election jointly with the BNP. But where the BNP itself has multiple qualified aspirants per seat, allocating seats to others remains a challenge.
Nonetheless, a number of names are circulating as potential beneficiaries of BNP’s seat-sharing. These include Mahmudur Rahman Manna (Bogura-2) of Nagorik Oikya; Andaleeve Rahman Partho (Dhaka-17) of the Bangladesh Jatiya Party; ASM Rob (Lakshmipur-4), president of Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JSD); Bobby Hajjaj (Dhaka-13) of the NDM; Zonayed Saki (Brahmanbaria-6) of Ganosamhati Andolan; Nurul Haque Nur (Patuakhali-3), president of the Gono Odhikar Parishad; and the party’s general secretary Rashed Khan (Jhenaidah-2).
Yet each of these constituencies already has multiple BNP nomination seekers, many of whom have begun campaigning. It remains to be seen how the BNP ultimately resolves these coalition complexities.
The BNP’s earlier principle, joint movement, joint election and joint government, is not being implemented in full. Some who had long been discussed as possible BNP coalition partners are now, in frustration, contemplating forming alliances outside both the BNP and Jamaat spheres. Internal discussions have begun among them. Others argue that any coalition outside these two major spheres would not yield electoral benefits.
Among the most unsettled regarding coalition strategy is the National Citizen Party (NCP), formed just eight months ago. According to the BBC, public enthusiasm surrounding the party’s launch has since diminished, and the party still has not decided whether to contest within a coalition or independently.
Historically, coalition politics in Bangladesh has rarely been a success. After independence, the three-party alliance led by the Bangladesh Awami League failed to sustain the government. The components of Ziaur Rahman’s Jatiyatabadi Oikya Front (Nationalist Unity Front) did not remain with him to the end. The 15-party and 7-party anti-Ershad alliances of the 1980s also failed to hold together; many leaders delivered fiery speeches by day and joined Ershad’s cabinet by night.
In the late 1990s during the Awami League government, the four-party alliance of BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, the Jatiya Party and the Islami Oikya Jote was formed; later, Ershad withdrew while some of his factions stayed with the BNP. The grand alliance led by the Awami League formed during Khaleda Zia’s second term in office also did not ultimately accommodate all partners in government.
I recently spoke with a Jamaat leader about their 8-party coalition. He said they were not forming an electoral alliance but could consider seat adjustments. They would assess whether allied candidates in certain constituencies had strong winning prospects. If an ally proved more popular than the Jamaat candidate, the seat could be ceded. Conversely, where Jamaat candidates were strong, others would be expected to step aside.
An unsettling trend is emerging in electoral politics: while a religion-based party like Jamaat increasingly emphasises governance of honest people over religious rhetoric, centrist parties appear to be invoking religious sentiment more frequently to win votes. Such a trajectory does little to move the country forward.
BNP leaders echo this view: they cannot overlook stronger BNP candidates merely to accommodate allies in seats where the risk is losing to opposing parties.
Coalition politics requires calculated risk and strategic compromise. While rebel candidates pose a risk for the BNP, Jamaat faces no such challenge. The Jamaat leader noted that even if the party decided that the ameer should not contest, he would comply; the party’s interests supersede personal ambition.
Another striking example of Jamaat prioritising party strategy is the nomination of a Hindu candidate for the Khulna-1 constituency. In this Hindu-majority seat, the party has chosen Krishna Nandi, president of the Dumuria unit of Jamaat’s Hindu committee. The decision was taken suddenly.
Krishna Nandi confirmed his nomination, saying, “On 1 December I was summoned to the headquarters, where the Jamaat ameer and other senior leaders were present. They declared me the candidate and gave me instructions. I will now begin work in the constituency.”
Media reports suggest that Krishna Nandi also maintained close relations with Narayan Chandra Chanda, the local MP and former livestock minister during the Awami League government, and photos of the two have circulated widely on social media.
Since 1973, every election in this constituency has been won by a minority candidate. Sheikh Hasina herself once won the seat, but in the subsequent by-election her nominee from the majority community lost to an independent candidate from the minority community; that candidate also was from her party.
Perhaps it is this electoral reality that led Jamaat to field a candidate from the Sanatan (Hindu) community. Whether this signals a fundamental shift in Jamaat’s politics or is simply a tactical move will likely become clear only in time.
But an unsettling trend is emerging in electoral politics: while a religion-based party like Jamaat increasingly emphasises governance of honest people over religious rhetoric, centrist parties appear to be invoking religious sentiment more frequently to win votes. Such a trajectory does little to move the country forward.
* Sohrab Hassan, journalist and poet.
* Opinions expressed are the writer’s own.